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Population Geography NGHS APHG Population Geography Elements of Population Geography (focuses on spatial aspects of demography)  Demography (study of population)  Population Distribution  Population Density  Arithmetic Population Density  Physiologic Density  Rate of Natural Increase (the excess of births of deaths – omitting migration)  Growth Rate (Natural increase + Net Migration)  Population Terms  Demography - the study of population characteristics  Overpopulation- when the available resources cannot support the number of people  Density - How many? The total number of people Demography  The study of human populations, particularly the size, distribution, and characteristics of members of population groups. Distribution and Density Population Growth 0 AD  1803 AD  1903 AD  1950 AD  1987 AD  1998 AD 250 Million People 1 Billion People 1.6 Billion People 3.0 Billion People 5.0 Billion People 6.0 Billion People The World and the Top 10  World China  India  United States  Indonesia  Brazil  Pakistan  Bangladesh  Russia  Nigeria  Japan  6,602,224,175 1,321,851,888 1,129,866,154 301,139,947 234,693,997 190,010,647 164,741,924 150,448,339 141,377,752 138,898,084 127,690,000 TODAY Population Distribution – Descriptions of locations on the Earth’s surface where individuals or groups (depending on the scale) live. Dot Map of World Population – On this map, one dot represents 100,000 people Countries are displayed by size of population rather than land area. Countries named have at least 50 million people. World Population Clusters of the world’s population are concentrated in four regions:  Two-thirds 1. East Asia (East China, Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan) - ¼ of world population here 2. South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh) - bound by the Himalayas and a desert in Pakistan 3. Europe - population is concentrated in cities 4. North America - megalopolis Ecumene  The portion of the Earth’s surface occupied by permanent human settlement  Increased over time  ¾ of world population lives on only 5% of the Earth’s surface Population Distribution   Densely populated regions – Low lands – Fertile soil – Temperate climate Sparsely Populated Regions – dry lands – wet lands – high lands – cold lands Density Arithmetic Density Physiological Density Agricultural Density Arithmetic Density: The total number of people divided by the total land area. Arithmetic Density: The total number of people / area of land measured in km² or mi² Crude density, also called arithmetic density, is the total number of people divided by the total land area. Physiological Density: The number of people per unit of area of arable land, which is land suitable for agriculture. Physiological Density: The number of people per unit of area of arable land, which is land suitable for agriculture. Physiologic Population Density •Arithmetic Density= 192/ sq.mi. •Physiological Density= 6,682 /sq. mi. Egypt’s arable lands are along the Nile River Valley. Moving away from the river a few blocks, the land becomes sandy and wind-sculpted. Egypt’s population distribution is closely linked to the proximity of water. In the north, the population clusters along the Mediterranean and in the interior, along the banks of the Nile River. (2004)  Agricultural Density: The number of farmers to the total amount of land suitable for agriculture. Population Characteristics World Population Growth Birth rate (b) − death rate (d) = rate of natural increase (r) Population Characteristics  Crude Birth Rate (CBR)  Crude Death Rate (CDR)  Natural Increase Rate (NIR)  Doubling Time  Total Fertility Rate (TFR)  Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) Population Characteristics  Crude Birth Rate : The total number of live births in a year for every 1,000 people alive in the society. – Crude Birth Rate = Births in a year 1000 people Crude Birth Rate : The total number of live births in a year for every 1,000 people alive in the society. Population Characteristics  Crude Death Rate : The total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people alive in the society. – Crude Death Rate = Deaths in a year 1000 people Crude Death Rate : The total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people alive in the society. Population Characteristics  Natural Increase: The percentage growth of a population in a year, computed as the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate. – not including migration – usually measured in percentages (out of 100) – Rate of Natural Increase = Natural Increase x 100 Population Natural Increase: The percentage growth of a population in a year, computed as the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate. Natural Increase  USA Population RNI – 0.6%  Nepal's Population RNI – 2.4%  What do these numbers imply? Population Characteristics  Doubling Time: The number of years needed to double a population, assuming a constant rate of natural increase. Population Characteristics  Total Fertility Rate: The average number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years.  Infant Mortality Rate: annual number of deaths of infants under age 1, compared to total live births – IMR = Infant(less than 1 year) deaths 1000 live births Infant Mortality Rate: - the number of deaths of children under the age of 1, per thousand of the general population. Population Characteristics  Life Expectancy : The average number of years an individual can be expected to live, given current social, economic, and medical conditions. Life Expectancy at Birth in 2003 Men Women US 74 80 Japan 78 85 Nepal 59 58 Kenya 46 46 France 76 83 Life Expectancy : The average number of years an individual can be expected to live, given current social, economic, and medical conditions. A Population Bomb?  Thomas – – – – – Malthus (1766-1834, England) --Felt population growing exponentially and resources growing linearly --Believed people needed to practice ”moral restraint” to lower CBR or disaster to increase CDR in order to solve population problem Neo-Malthusians  Two recent issues that invigorate Malthus thought: – 1. many countries experiencing population growth due to transfer of medical technology – 2. new population “stripping” world of resources  Ehrlich (1960s) – warned of a population bomb in 1970s and 1980s because the world’s population was outpacing food production. – No bomb, no starving! Could there still be something learned from Ehhrlich’s thoughts? Critics of Malthus  Resources are not fixed: possibilism and technology  Lack o food have to do with distribution of wealth rather than insufficient food  Population growth can stimulate economic growth – More people=more consumers, more creativity Demographic Transition DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL Demographic Transition - the change in population characteristics of a country to reflect medical technology or economic and social development. Demographic Transition - Stage 1  High Birth Rate – Agricultural society  High Death Rate – Epidemics and plagues – Famine – War  Low Natural Increase Rate  Stationary population growth Demographic Transition - Stage 1  Today, no country in the world is in Stage 1. Demographic Transition - Stage 2  High Birth Rate  Declining Death Rate – Industrial Revolution:  agricultural improvements  medical advancements  High Natural Increase Rate  High expanding population growth Demographic Transition - Stage 2  Europe and North America entered Stage 2 in the 1800s  Africa, Asia and Latin America entered into Stage 2 in the early to mid 1900s – European colonization brought medical advancements  Current Examples: Afghanistan, Many Sub-Saharan African countries Demographic Transition - Stage 3  Declining Birth Rate – – – – Urbanization Wealth Education Contraceptives Low Death Rate  Low Natural Increase Rate  Slow expanding population growth  Demographic Transition - Stage 3  Europe and North America entered Stage 3 in first half of 1900s  Many countries in Latin America and Asia entered Stage 3 in the second half of the 1900s  Current Examples: Mexico, Panama, South Africa Demographic Transition - Stage 4  Low Birth Rate – Low TFR – Women highly involved in education and workforce Low Death Rate  Low to no Natural Increase Rate  Stationary Population Growth   This stage reflects a highly industrialized, educated society. Demographic Transition - Stage 4  Current Examples: – Many European countries (Italy, France) – United States – Japan Stage 5? Demographic Transition Model  Draw – – – – – it! Stages: 1-5 and growth CBR CDR NIR Total Population Population Pyramids Dependency Ratio The number of people who are too young or too old to work, compared to the number of people in their productive years Dependency Ratio  0-14 = Dependents  15-64 = Workers  64+ = Dependents  DR = Number of Dependents (0-15 and 65+) X 100 Number of Working-age (16-64) Population under the age of 15 - usually shown as a percentage of the total population of a country - dependency age is 0-15 Sex Ratio  Sex Ratio: number of males per hundred females  In general more males are born than females  Males have higher death rates  Examples: – Europe and North America = 95:100 – Rest of World = 102:100 Sex Ratio – Developing Countries large % of young people –where males generally outnumber females  Lower % of older people – where females are typically more numerous  High immigration = more males  Have Population Pyramids A country’s stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure  Also called Age-Sex Pyramids Population Pyramid  Population composition on graph: – Males = left side of the vertical axis – Females = right side of the vertical axis – Age = order sequentially with youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top (usually by five-year cohorts) Rapid Growth  A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model  Large number of young people and a smaller older population Slow Growth A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model  Large number of “older people”  Smaller % of young people No Growth  End of stage 4, entering Stage 5  Large number of “older people”  Very small % of young people Developing (poor) Relatively Developed Developed (rich) What stage goes with each pyramid? National Scale Population Control Epidemiological Transition Model  Stage 1 – Epidemics: Infectious and parasitic diseases, famine – Ex: Black Plague  Stage 2 – Receding Pandemics – Ex: Cholera Epidemiological Transition Model  Stage 3 – Degenerative and human-created disease – Ex: Cardiovascular disease and Cancer  Stage 4 – Delayed degenerative diseases – Ex: Alzheimer's, Diabetes  Stage 5? – Reemerging infectious and parasitic disease – Ex: Malaria, TB, SARS, AIDS AIDS/HIV+  2001world distribution: – 28 million in Sub-Saharan Africa – 7 million in Asia (India, China, SE Asia) – 2 million in Latin America (Caribbean-Haiti)  Sub-Saharan Africa – 70% of HIV cases – Zimbabwe, Botswana, Zambia, South Africa – Increase death rates – Declining life expectancy Expansive Population Policies  Communist Societies – Soviet Union – China – Mao Zedong  European countries: NOW – Tax incentives – Sweden  Cash payments, tax incentives, job leave, work hour flexibility lasting up to 8 years after birth  Short baby boom, but led to issues Eugenic Population Policies  Favoring one racial or cultural sector of the population over the others – Tax discrimination, allocation of resources, favoritism  Examples – Nazi Germany – Japan? – USA? Restrictive Population Policies  Reducing the rate of natural increase through a range of means – China: “One-child” policy: Income bonuses, Better health care benefits, Better retirement pensions, Priority in housing Solutions to Population Growth  Empowerment of Women – $ for contraception & education – Changing cultural norms to value girls  Diffusion of Birth Control Policies – Educating men w/ responsibility for birth control – Sterilization Solutions to Population Growth  Addressing traditional religious values that may encourage gender preference and large families  Redistribution of wealth - improve standard of living for poor so that children aren’t as necessary – Improving farming techniques in poor areas – Starvation, Malnourishment Solutions to Population Growth technology – costs of maintaining vulnerable populations (old & young)  Medical  Addressing government policies to deal with their growing populations Something to think about…  Is population control funded by MDCs ethical in LDCs? – – – – – –  Population control v. culture Birth control? Sterilization? Abortion? Sex determination? Incentives: Money, food, clothing? Is population control funded by MDCs needed to keep mass amounts of people in the LDCs out of poverty?