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LECTURE TWO: DEMAND MBA NCCU Managerial Economics Lecturer: Jack Wu CASE: RISING GASOLINE PRICES  Between September 2004 and September 2005, the monthly average retail price of gasoline jumped from $1.85 per gallon to $3.08 per gallon. Sales of full-size SUVs dropped 16.8% over the same time period (with a particularly sharp 42.5% drop for full-size GM SUVs). GM VICE CHAIRMAN: BOB LUTZ May 31, 2004: “It sounds cavalier, but in any household budget, gasoline isn't a factor”, Business Week.  July 1, 2005: “The demise of the full-size truck is a figment of the imagination of the popular press. Everybody assumes it is true but the market is still buying”, Reuters.  “The effect will decrease over time as people adjust to the thought of $3 a gallon, just as they did when it was $2 a gallon and just as they did when it was $1 a gallon”, New York Times.  MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS QUESTIONS  How important are gasoline prices to the sales of SUVs and other types of automobiles?  How should the auto manufacturers respond to the increasing price of gasoline?  Are manufacturer incentives (i.e. price reductions) an effective response?  What are the combined effects of incentives and increasing gas prices? MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS TOOL: DEMAND  We apply demand to show how the rising price of gasoline has caused decreases in large SUV sales, and how manufacturer incentives can offset these reductions. INDIVIDUAL DEMAND CURVE Definition: graph of quantity that buyer will purchase at every possible price  Construction -- “Other things equal, how many would you buy at a price of ….?’’  vertical axis -- price  horizontal axis -- quantity INDIVIDUAL DEMAND SCHEDULE  Price ($ per movie) 10.00 7.50 5.00 2.50 0.00 Quantity (movies per month) 0 1 2 4 7 INDIVIDUAL DEMAND CURVE Price ($ per movie) 10 7.50 individual demand curve 5 2.50 0 1 2 4 Quantity (Movies a month) 7 INDIVIDUAL DEMAND SCHEDULE II  Price ($ per movie) 20.00 19.00 18.00 …. 0.00 Quantity (movies per month) 0 1 2 … 20 ANOTHER TYPE OF INDIVIDUAL DEMAND CURVE TWO VIEWS for every possible price, it shows the quantity demanded  for each unit of item, it shows the maximum price that the buyer is willing to pay  DEMAND CURVE: SLOPE  diminishing marginal benefit -- each additional unit of consumption/usage provides less benefit than the preceeding unit  demand curve slopes downward HOOVER, 1992 A negative price case: Hoover’s special promotion -- two free air tickets (worth more than £400) for purchase of appliance over £100.   promotion attracted over 100,000 customers Hoover incurred £48 million loss DEMAND AND INCOME Changes in income normal product – demand increases with income inferior product – demand falls with income DEMAND AND OTHER FACTORS  prices of related products substitutes  complements   advertising RECORDED MUSIC Argentina Canada CD purchases 0.5 2.6 cassette purchases GDP/capita 0.2 0.4 $9,413 $19,831 CD price $13.80 $11.55 cassette price $ 7.80 $ 6.06 RECORDED MUSIC Why the average Canadian bought more of both CDs and cassettes?  Why the ratio of CD to cassette purchases was relatively higher in Canada?  RECORDED MUSIC  Canadians enjoyed higher incomes  Cassettes were a relatively inferior product compared to CDs  Another possible explanation: difference in the relative prices of CDs and cassettes _ Canada: 11.55/6.06=1.9 _ Argentina: 13.80/7.80=1.77 * don’t not explain why Canadians bought relatively more CDs than Argentines. MARKET DEMAND Market demand = horizontal summation of individual demands Price Joy Max Lucas Market $10 0 0 0 0 $7.50 1 0 0 1 $5 2 1 0 3 $2.50 4 2 3 9 $0 7 6 4 17 BUYER SURPLUS individual buyer surplus: difference between consumer’s benefit and price she must pay for the item  market buyer surplus: sum of individual buyer surpluses.  INDIVIDUAL BUYER SURPLUS Price ($ per movie) 10 individual buyer surplus at $2.50 price 7.50 d 5 c a b e individual demand (marginal benefit) curve f 2.50 g h j 0 1 2 4 Quantity (Movies a month) 7 BUYER SURPLUS: INDIVIDUAL GAINS FROM PRICE CUT lower price on the quantity that he/she would have purchased at the original price (inframarginal units)  he/she can buy more (marginal units)  Case: Student discount price for movie  PACKAGE DEAL charge buyer just a little less than her/his total benefit  leave buyer with almost zero surplus  BUYER SURPLUS: TWO-PART PRICING fixed payment  usage charge  fixed payment usage charge BUYER SURPLUS: TWO-PART PRICING Business Provider Broadband access, Hong Kong PCCW Netvigator HK$298 per HK$2 per 3M Single User month (incl. additional Plan 100 free hr hrs) Mobile telephone Etisalat service, UAE Corporation, GSM Standard Service Fixed Fee 125 dirham connection fee; 60 dirham per qtr Usage Fee 0.24/0.18 dirham per min (peak/ offpeak)