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Lecture 20:
Century Redux
May 12, 2010
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THE CHINESE 21st CENTURY? AN
EVENING WITH MARTIN JACQUES:
"When China Rules the World: The Rise of the
Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western
World"
Thursday, May 13
7:00 - 9:00pm
Walker-Ames Room, Kane Hall
University of Washington, Seattle
Free and open to the public
Peace Dividends from End of Cold
War
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US defense cuts
Proliferation of democracies
End of (some) 3rd world civil wars:
Mozambique, Angola, El Salvador, Nicaragua
End of apartheid in South Africa (1994)
Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process (1993-?)
The 1990s in Retrospect
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A taste of what might have been without Cold War
Unprecedented growth (US grew 27% 1990-98)
Focus on economics, unfocused foreign policy
Dark clouds on the horizon (“rogue states”, civil wars,
AIDS in Africa)
Democrats: peace, prosperity, US soft power
Republicans: 1992-2000= “holiday from history”
Future historians: The limbo period sandwiched
between the Cold War and Terror War
Globalization
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“Movement of goods, people, and capital across national boundaries”
End of Communism, rise of free markets
Cheaper communication and transportation
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Good
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Comparative advantage
“Rising tide lifts all boats.”
Bad
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Erodes power of governments
Bad for labor, environment (“race to the bottom”)
Distributional consequences
Globalization of crisis
Globalization Backlash
Return to 19th Century
but with New Players?
European Union
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Coal and Steel Community  European Community
 EU
Why?
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Prevent war
Economic efficiency
Balance against US
1992 Maastricht Treaty  Euro
Common market, common currency, visa-free travel,
harmonized laws, common norms/human rights
Expanded 5 times; largest in 2004
European Union
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Coal and Steel Community  European Community  EU
Why?
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Prevent war
Economic growth
Balance US
Common Market, Visa-free travel, harmonized laws, common
norms/human rights, social protections, Euro
Expanded 5 times; largest in 2004
Problems
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Backlash against enlargement…what about Turkey?
National interests first
Punches below its weight internationally
Solution? Lisbon Treaty (EU “president”, “foreign minister”)
“BRIC” Countries
“BRIC”
Secrets of the BRIC Countries
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Liberalization of economy
Lower trade barriers
Investment in human capital
(Relatively) effective government
China Enters the World Economy
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Mao’s disastrous policies
Deng Xiaoping’s gradual reforms
GDP increase 1976-2006: $150 billion  $2.2
trillion
Consumes one-third of world’s iron, steel, coal
Foreign exchange reserves: $2.5 trillion