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Probability Models for Distributions of Discrete Variables 1 Randomly select a college student. Determine x, the number of credit cards the student has. x = # of cards x 0 1 2 3 4 5 p(x) 0.20 0.30 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 p(x) = probability of x occurring 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 2 Populations / Samples A population is a collection of all units of interest. Example: All college students A sample is a collection of units drawn from the population. Example: Any subcollection of college students. Probabilities go with populations. Scientific studies randomly sample from the entire population. Each unit in the sample is chosen randomly. The entire sample is random as well. 3 Probability Models and Populations For discrete data, a population and a sample are summarized the same way (for instance, as a table of values and accompanying relative frequencies). A probability distribution (or model) for a discrete variable is a description of values, with each value accompanied by a probability. 4 Probability Models and Populations Definitions of Probability 2. the probability of an event is the long term (technically forever) relative frequency of occurrence of the event, when the experiment is performed repeatedly under identical starting conditions. 3. The probability of an event is the relative frequency of units in the population for which the event applies. To aggregate these meanings: The probability associated with an event is its relative frequency of occurrence over all possible ways the phenomena can take place. 5 Probability Models “All models are wrong. Some are useful.” George Box -industrial statistician 6 A probability distribution for a discrete variable is tabulated with a set of values, x and probabilities, p(x). x p(x) 0 0.20 1 0.30 2 0.20 3 0.15 4 0.10 Probabilities Must be nonnegative. 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 5 0.05 0.10 0.05 0.00 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 A probability distribution for a discrete variable is tabulated with a set of values, x and probabilities, p(x). x p(x) 0 0.20 1 0.30 2 0.20 3 0.15 4 0.10 5 0.05 SUM 1.00 Probabilities Must be nonnegative. Must sum to 1. Within rounding error. 8 The mean of a probability distribution is the mean value observed for all possible outcomes of the phenomena. 9 Consider idealized data sets x 0 1 2 3 4 5 p(x) 0.20 0.30 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 20 0s 30 1s 20 2s 15 3s 10 4s 5 5s 10 Idealized data set n = 100 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 5 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 0 1 1 1 2 3 4 Mean = 1.80 0 1 1 1 2 3 4 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 0 1 1 2 2 3 5 SD = 1.44 0 1 1 2 2 3 5 0 1 1 2 2 3 5 11 Consider idealized data sets x 0 1 2 3 4 5 p(x) 0.20 0.30 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 200 0s 300 1s 200 2s 150 3s 100 4s 50 5s 12 Idealized data set n = 1000 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 …4 5…5 0 0 0 … 0 1 1 1 1 1 1…1 2 2 … 2 …3 Mean = 1.80 (200) (300) (200) (150) (100) (50) SD = 1.44 13 Values for the mean and standard deviation don’t depend on the number of data values; they depend instead on the relative location of the data values – they depend on the distribution in relative frequency terms. 14 The mean of a probability distribution is the mean value observed for all possible outcomes of the phenomena. Greek letter “myou” Formula: SUM symbol x p x is synonymous with “population mean” 15 x p x Multiply each value by its probability Sum the products x 0 1 2 3 4 5 p(x) 0.20 0.30 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 1.00 x p(x) 0 0.20 = 0.00 1 0.30 = 0.30 2 0.20 = 0.40 3 0.15 = 0.45 4 0.10 = 0.40 5 0.05 = 0.25 1.80 Mean = 1.80 16 The standard deviation of a probability distribution is the standard deviation of the values observed for all possible outcomes of the phenomena. Formula: x 2 p x Greek letter “sigma” denotes “population standard deviation” 17 First obtain the variance. x 0 p(x) 0.20 1 2 3 4 5 0.30 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 x p x 2 2 (0 – 1.8)2 0.20 = 0.648 (1 – 1.8)2 0.30 = 0.192 (2 – 1.8)2 0.20 = 0.008 (3 – 1.8)2 0.15 = 0.216 (4 – 1.8)2 0.10 = 0.484 (5 – 1.8)2 0.05 = 0.512 2 = 2.060 (take square root to obtain) = 1.44 18 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 5 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 0 1 1 1 2 3 4 0 1 1 1 2 3 4 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 0 1 1 2 2 3 5 0 1 1 2 2 3 5 0 1 1 2 2 3 5 Mean = 1.80 SD = 1.44 Mean – SD = 0.56 Mean + SD = 3.24 65 / 100 = 65% 19 x 0 1 2 3 4 5 p(x) 0.20 0.30 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 Mean = 1.80 SD = 1.44 Mean – SD = 0.56 Mean + SD = 3.24 0.30 + 0.20 + 0.15 = 0.65 20 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 4 5 0.2329 0.1442 0.0736 6 7 8 0.0317 0.0124 0.0043 9 10 0.0005 0.0003 0.30 0.25 0.20 Probability x 1 2 x = # children in randomly selected college student’s family. 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 # of Children 7 8 9 10 21 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 4 5 0.2329 0.1442 0.0736 6 7 8 0.0317 0.0124 0.0043 9 10 0.0005 0.0003 x = # children in randomly selected college student’s family. 0.2194 = 21.94% of all college students come from a 1 child family. 22 Guess at mean? Above 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 4 5 0.2329 0.1442 0.0736 6 7 8 0.0317 0.0124 0.0043 9 10 0.0005 0.0003 (right skew mean > mode). 0.30 0.25 0.20 Probability x 1 2 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 # of Children 7 8 9 10 23 x 1 2 p(x) 0.2194 0.2806 x p(x) 1(0.2194) = 0.2194 2(0.2806) = 0.5612 3 4 5 0.2329 0.1442 0.0736 3(0.2329) = 0.6987 : = 0.5768 0.3680 6 7 8 9 0.0317 0.0124 0.0043 0.0005 0.1902 0.0868 0.0344 0.0045 10 55 0.0003 1.0000 0.0030 Mean: = 2.7430 To determine the mean, multiply values by probabilities, xp(x) and sum these. 55/10 = 5.50 is not the mean 1.000/10 = 0.10 is not the mean 24 x p(x) 1 0.2194 (x – )2 p(x) (1 – 2.743)2 0.2194 = 0.6665 2 0.2806 3 0.2329 4 0.1442 (2 – 2.743)2 0.2806 = 0.1549 (3 – 2.743)2 0.2329 = 0.0154 : = 0.2278 5 6 7 0.0736 0.0317 0.0124 0.3749 0.3363 0.2247 8 9 10 0.0043 0.0005 0.0003 0.1188 0.0196 0.0158 55 1.0000 Variance: 2 = 2.1548 To determine the variance, multiply squared deviations from the mean by probabilities, (x – )2p(x) and sum these. 25 The standard deviation is the square root of the variance. 2.1548 1.468 Examining the data set consisting of # of children in the family recorded for all students: The mean is 2.743; the standard deviation is 1.468. 26 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 4 5 0.2329 0.1442 0.0736 6 7 8 0.0317 0.0124 0.0043 9 10 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student is from a family with more than 5 siblings. P(x > 5) 27 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 4 5 0.2329 0.1442 0.0736 6 7 8 0.0317 0.0124 0.0043 9 10 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student is from a family with more than 5 siblings. P(x > 5) 28 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 4 5 0.2329 0.1442 0.0736 6 7 8 0.0317 0.0124 0.0043 9 10 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student is from a family with more than 5 siblings. P(x > 5) 29 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 4 5 0.2329 0.1442 0.0736 6 7 8 0.0317 0.0124 0.0043 9 10 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student is from a family with more than 5 siblings. P(x > 5) 30 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 4 5 0.2329 0.1442 0.0736 6 7 8 0.0317 0.0124 0.0043 9 10 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student is from a family with more than 5 siblings. P(x > 5) 31 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 4 5 0.2329 0.1442 0.0736 6 7 8 0.0317 0.0124 0.0043 9 10 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student is from a family with more than 5 siblings. P(x > 5) = 0.0317 + 0.0124 + 0.0043 + 0.0005 + 0.0003 32 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 4 5 0.2329 0.1442 0.0736 6 7 8 0.0317 0.0124 0.0043 9 10 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student is from a family with more than 5 siblings. P(x > 5) = 0.0317 + 0.0124 + 0.0043 + 0.0005 + 0.0003 = 0.0492 33 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 4 5 0.2329 0.1442 0.0736 6 7 8 0.0317 0.0124 0.0043 9 10 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student is from a family with more than 5 siblings. P(x > 5) = 0.0492 4.92% of all college students come from families with more than 5 children (they have 4 or more brothers and sisters). 34 Determine the probability a student is from a family with at most 3 siblings. x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 4 5 0.2329 0.1442 0.0736 + 0.2806 6 7 8 0.0317 0.0124 0.0043 = 0.7329 9 10 0.0005 0.0003 P(x 3) = 0.2194 + 0.2329 35 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 4 5 0.2329 0.1442 0.0736 6 7 8 0.0317 0.0124 0.0043 9 10 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student is from a family with at least 7 siblings. P(x 7) = 0.0124 + 0.0043 + 0.0005 + 0.0003 = 0.0175 Good idea: Take the reciprocal of a small probability… 1/.0175 = 57.1 1 in 57 students 36 Determine the probability a student is from a family with fewer than 5 siblings. x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 0.2329 4 5 6 0.1442 0.0736 0.0317 + 0.2806 7 8 9 10 0.0124 0.0043 0.0005 0.0003 + 0.1442 P(x < 5) = 0.2194 + 0.2329 = 0.8771 37 at most 3 at least 7 less than or equal to 3 greater than or equal to 7 no more than 3 no fewer/less than 7 x3 x7 38 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 0.2329 4 5 6 0.1442 0.0736 0.0317 7 8 9 10 0.0124 0.0043 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student’s number of siblings falls within 1 standard deviation of the mean. Guess? 0.68 39 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 0.2329 4 5 6 0.1442 0.0736 0.0317 7 8 9 10 0.0124 0.0043 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student’s number of siblings falls within 1 standard deviation of the mean. Mean = 2.743 SD = 1.468 1 SD below the mean 2.743 – 1.468 = 1.275 1 SD above the mean 2.743 + 1.468 = 4.211 40 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 0.2329 4 5 6 0.1442 0.0736 0.0317 7 8 9 10 0.0124 0.0043 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student’s number of siblings falls within 1 standard deviation of the mean. 1 SD below the mean = 1.275 1 SD above the mean = 4.211 Values are within 1 SD of the mean if they are between these. 41 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 0.2329 4 5 6 0.1442 0.0736 0.0317 7 8 9 10 0.0124 0.0043 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student’s number of siblings falls within 1 standard deviation of the mean. 1 SD below the mean = 1.275 1 SD above the mean = 4.211 Values are within 1 SD of the mean if they are between these. 42 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 0.2329 4 5 6 0.1442 0.0736 0.0317 7 8 9 10 0.0124 0.0043 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student’s number of siblings falls within 1 standard deviation of the mean. 1 SD below the mean = 1.275 1 SD above the mean = 4.211 Values are within 1 SD of the mean if they are between these. The probability of being between these: 0.2806 + 0.2329 + 0.1442 = 0.6577 43 Determine the probability a student’s number of siblings falls within 2 standard deviations of the mean. x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 0.2329 4 5 6 0.1442 0.0736 0.0317 2 SD below the mean 7 8 9 10 0.0124 0.0043 0.0005 0.0003 2 SD above the mean Guess? 0.95 1.275 – 1.468 = -0.193 4.211+ 1.468 = 5.679 Between -0.193 and 5.679. 44 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 0.2329 4 5 6 0.1442 0.0736 0.0317 7 8 9 10 0.0124 0.0043 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student’s number of siblings falls within 2 standard deviations of the mean. Between -0.193 and 5.679. (Equivalent to 5 or fewer.) 45 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 0.2329 4 5 6 0.1442 0.0736 0.0317 7 8 9 10 0.0124 0.0043 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student’s number of siblings falls within 2 standard deviations of the mean. Between -0.193 and 5.679. (Equivalent to 5 or fewer.) We know an outcome more than 5 has probability 0.0492. 46 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 0.2329 4 5 6 0.1442 0.0736 0.0317 7 8 9 10 0.0124 0.0043 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student’s number of siblings falls within 2 standard deviations of the mean. Between -0.193 and 5.679. (Equivalent to 5 or fewer.) We know an outcome more than 5 has probability 0.0492. The probability of an outcome at most 5 is 1 – 0.0492 = 0.9508. 47 x 1 2 p( x) 0.2194 0.2806 3 0.2329 4 5 6 0.1442 0.0736 0.0317 7 8 9 10 0.0124 0.0043 0.0005 0.0003 Determine the probability a student’s number of siblings falls within 2 standard deviations of the mean. Between -0.193 and 5.679. 0.9508. 48 Pollutant Particles in Streamwater A company monitors pollutants downstream of discharge into a stream. Data were collected on 200 days from a point 1 mile downstream of the plant on Stream A. Data were collected on 100 days from a point 1 miles downstream of the plant on Stream B. 49 70 How do means compare? Frequency 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 (What are the means?) Stream B How do SDs compare? 70 Frequency 60 (What are the SDs?) 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Stream A 50 70 Similar Means. Frequency 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Similar Standard Deviations. Stream B (Similar everything except ns.) 70 Frequency 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Stream A 51 35 30 Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 4 5 6 Stream B 35 30 Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 1 2 3 Stream A 52 35 Stream B 30 Percent 25 Mean = 1.775 20 15 10 SD = 1.242 5 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Stream B 35 30 Stream A Percent 25 20 15 Mean = 1.770 10 5 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 SD = 1.340 Stream A 53 Here is the probability distribution for the number of diners seated at a table in a small café. x p(x) 1 0.10 2 0.20 a) Fill in the blank 3 ____ 4 0.40 54 Here is the probability distribution for the number of diners seated at a table in a small café. x p(x) 1 0.10 2 0.20 3 0.30 4 0.40 a) Fill in the blank 55 Here is the probability distribution for the number of diners seated at a table in a small café. x p(x) 1 0.10 2 0.20 3 0.30 4 0.40 b) Determine the mean Start by computing xp(x) for each row. 56 Here is the probability distribution for the number of diners seated at a table in a small café. x p(x) 1 0.10 2 0.20 3 0.30 4 0.40 xp(x) b) Determine the mean Start by computing xp(x) for each row. 57 Here is the probability distribution for the number of diners seated at a table in a small café. x p(x) xp(x) 1 0.10 10.10 = 0.10 2 0.20 3 0.30 4 0.40 b) Determine the mean Start by computing xp(x) for each row. 58 Here is the probability distribution for the number of diners seated at a table in a small café. x p(x) xp(x) 1 0.10 10.10 = 0.10 2 0.20 20.20 = 0.40 3 0.30 4 0.40 b) Determine the mean Start by computing xp(x) for each row. 59 Here is the probability distribution for the number of diners seated at a table in a small café. x p(x) xp(x) 1 0.10 10.10 = 0.10 2 0.20 20.20 = 0.40 3 0.30 30.30 = 0.90 4 0.40 40.40 = 1.60 b) Determine the mean Start by computing xp(x) for each row. 60 Here is the probability distribution for the number of diners seated at a table in a small café. x p(x) xp(x) 1 0.10 10.10 = 0.10 2 0.20 20.20 = 0.40 3 0.30 30.30 = 0.90 4 0.40 40.40 = 1.60 b) Determine the mean Sum these. 61 Here is the probability distribution for the number of diners seated at a table in a small café. x p(x) xp(x) 1 0.10 10.10 = 0.10 2 0.20 20.20 = 0.40 3 0.30 30.30 = 0.90 4 0.40 40.40 = 1.60 b) Determine the mean Sum these. = 3.00 62 Here is the probability distribution for the number of diners seated at a table in a small café. b) Determine the standard deviation x p(x) 1 0.10 2 0.20 3 0.30 Start by computing 0.40 ( x – ) 2 p(x) 4 for each row. 63 Here is the probability distribution for the number of diners seated at a table in a small café. b) Determine the standard deviation x p(x) 1 0.10 2 0.20 3 0.30 Start by computing 0.40 ( x – )2 p(x) 4 for each row. =3 64 Here is the probability distribution for the number of diners seated at a table in a small café. (x– 3)2 x p(x) 1 0.10 2 0.20 3 0.30 Start by computing 0.40 ( x – 3)2 p(x) 4 p(x) b) Determine the standard deviation for each row. =3 65 Here is the probability distribution for the number of diners seated at a table in a small café. (x– 3)2 x p(x) 1 0.10 (1 – 3)20.10 = 0.40 2 0.20 3 0.30 Start by computing 0.40 ( x – 3 ) 2 p(x) 4 p(x) b) Determine the standard deviation for each row. =3 66 Here is the probability distribution for the number of diners seated at a table in a small café. (x– 3)2 x p(x) 1 0.10 (1 – 3)20.10 = 0.40 2 0.20 (2 – 3)20.20 = 0.20 3 0.30 Start by computing 0.40 ( x – 3 ) 2 p(x) 4 p(x) b) Determine the standard deviation for each row. =3 67 Here is the probability distribution for the number of diners seated at a table in a small café. (x– 3)2 x p(x) 1 0.10 (1 – 3)20.10 = 0.40 2 0.20 (2 – 3)20.20 = 0.20 3 0.30 (3 – 3)20.20 = 0.00 4 0.40 (4 – 3)20.20 p(x) = 0.40 b) Determine the standard deviation Start by computing (x – 3 ) 2 p(x) for each row. =3 68 Here is the probability distribution for the number of diners seated at a table in a small café. (x– 3)2 x p(x) p(x) 1 0.10 (1 – 3)20.10 = 0.40 2 0.20 (2 – 3)20.20 = 0.20 3 0.30 (3 – 3)20.20 = 0.00 4 0.40 (4 – 3)20.20 = 0.40 b) Determine the standard deviation Sum these 69 Here is the probability distribution for the number of diners seated at a table in a small café. (x– 3)2 p(x) b) Determine the standard deviation x p(x) 1 0.10 (1 – 3)20.10 = 0.40 2 0.20 (2 – 3)20.20 = 0.20 Sum these 3 0.30 (3 – 3)20.30 = 0.00 Variance = 1.00 4 0.40 (4 – 3)20.40 = 0.40 SD: = 1.00 70 [Optional] Application This framework makes it possible to obtain fairly good approximations to means and standard deviations from a histogram of continuous data. 71 Example Here are waiting times between student arrivals in a class. There are 21 students (20 waits). Approximate the mean and median. How do they compare? 10 Frequency 8 6 4 2 0 0 10 20 30 Waiting Time 40 50 72 Example: Mean For each class, determine its frequency and corresponding midpoint. Frequency = 10 10 Frequency 8 Midpoint = 5 6 4 2 0 0 10 20 30 Waiting Time 40 50 73 Example: Mean Tabulate frequencies and midpoints. Midpoint Frequency 5 10 74 Example: Mean Tabulate frequencies and midpoints. Midpoint Frequency 5 10 15 5 25 3 35 1 45 1 Total 20 75 Example: Mean Obtain relative frequencies. Midpoint Frequency 5 10 15 5 25 3 35 1 45 1 Total 20 Relative Frequency 10/20 = 0.50 76 Example: Mean Obtain relative frequencies. Midpoint Frequency Relative Frequency 5 10 10/20 = 0.50 15 5 5/20 = 0.25 25 3 3/20 = 0.15 35 1 1/20 = 0.05 45 1 1/20 = 0.05 Total 20 1.00 77 Example: Mean Proceed with the formula Mean x p x Midpoint Rel Freq Product 5 0.50 5(0.50) = 2.50 15 0.25 25 0.15 35 0.05 45 0.05 Total 20 78 Example: Mean Proceed as a discrete population distribution. Midpoint Rel Freq Product 5 0.50 5(0.50) = 2.50 15 0.25 15(0.25) = 3.75 25 0.15 25(0.15) = 3.75 35 0.05 35(0.05) = 1.75 45 0.05 45(0.05) = 2.25 Total 20 Mean 79 Example: Mean Proceed as a discrete population distribution. Midpoint Rel Freq Product 5 0.50 5(0.50) = 2.50 15 0.25 15(0.25) = 3.75 25 0.15 25(0.15) = 3.75 35 0.05 35(0.05) = 1.75 45 0.05 45(0.05) = 2.25 Total 20 14.00 Mean 14.00 80 Example: Median Find the value with 50% below and 50% above. 10 Frequency 8 6 4 2 0 0 10 20 30 Waiting Time 40 50 81 Example: Median Obtain relative frequencies. Midpoint Rel Freq 5 0.50 15 0.20 25 0.15 35 0.05 45 0.05 Total 1.00 82 Example: Median Find the value with 50% below and 50% above. 10 of 20 = 50% below 10 Median 10.00 10 Frequency 8 Mean 14.00 6 Range 44 4 S.D. 11 2 0 0 10 20 30 Waiting Time 40 50 83 Example: Data / Exact Values 1.3 3.6 11.2 33.6 1.9 3.7 13.5 43.5 1.9 5.9 15.9 Approximations: 2.5 9.7 21.4 2.6 10.4 27.5 3.0 10.6 29.8 Actual Values: Median 10.0.05 Median = Mean 14.0 Mean = Range 44 Range = SD 11 SD = 84 Example: Data / Exact Values 1.3 3.6 11.2 33.6 1.9 3.7 13.5 43.5 1.9 5.9 15.9 Approximations: 2.5 9.7 21.4 2.6 10.4 27.5 3.0 10.6 29.8 Actual Values: Median 10.0.05 Median = 10.05 Mean 14.0 Mean = 12.68 Range 44 Range = 42.2 SD 11 SD = 12.31 85