Download NotesWed

Wednesday 16 Dec 2009 – AGU meeting
8:00 AM-10:00 AM, 3020 (Moscone West)
ED31C. Education and Communication for Climate Literacy and Energy
Awareness I
ID# ED31C-01
Location: 3020 (Moscone West)
Time of Presentation: Dec 16 8:00 AM - 8:15 AM
A National Road Map to a Climate Literate Society: Advancing Climate Literacy by
Coordinating Federal Climate Change Educational Programs (Invited)
F. Niepold1; J. L. Karsten2
1. Climate Program Office, NOAA/UCAR , Silver Spring, MD, United States.
2. Geosciences Directorate , National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, United States.
Over the 21st century, climate scientists expect Earth's temperature to continue
increasing, very likely more than it did during the 20th century. Two anticipated results
are rising global sea level and increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves, droughts,
and floods. [IPCC 2007, USGCRP 2009] These changes will affect almost every aspect
of human society, including economic prosperity, human and environmental health, and
national security. Climate change will bring economic and environmental challenges as
well as opportunities, and citizens who have an understanding of climate science will be
better prepared to respond to both. Society needs citizens who understand the climate
system and know how to apply that knowledge in their careers and in their engagement as
active members of their communities. Climate change will continue to be a significant
element of public discourse. Understanding the essential principles of climate science
will enable all people to assess news stories and contribute to their everyday
conversations as informed citizens. Key to our nations response to climate change will be
a Climate Literate society that understands their influence on climate and climate’s
influence on them and society. In order to ensure the nation increases its literacy, the
Climate Literacy: Essential Principles of Climate Science document has been endorsed
by the 13 Federal agencies that make up the US Global Change Research Program
(http://globalchange.gov/resources/educators/climate-literacy) and twenty-four other
science and educational institutions. This session will explore the coordinated efforts by
the federal agencies and partner organizations to ensure a climate literate society.
http://globalchange.gov/resources/educators/climate-literacy
Contact Information
Frank Niepold, Brookeville, Maryland, USA, 20833-0000, click here to send an email
"Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences: A Guide for Individuals
and Communities" produced by the U.S. Global Change Research Program in March
2009
Frank Niepold (NOAA) + Joe Karsten. I thought we’d be further alongon this roadmap
so there’d be more for you to do. Un Framework + Copenhagen require us to do much
more. People tlk about the new, green innovative economy. Energy seems to be an
afterthought, but it’s very important. Jobs is another major requirement. 7th graders are
wondering about future jobs. Climate is just a piece.
We need a climate-literate nation. (President says education is his highest priority)
We need a diverse, innovative, and well-trained climate science and technology
workforce.
We need to get on the same page and agree on the goals… and the plan… and the
requirements soon. (NSF hets 6- million/yr) Here are two opportunities to assist this
process:
 NRC Americas Climate Choices recommendations
 National Academies of Sciences Climate Change Education Strategies
Roundtable
Look into these! Congress asked that NOAA fund the former and GIVE
RECOMMENDATIONS – unprecedented request for advice
Our nation faces serious challenges (lets all the air out of the room – heavy dark and
serious) as we transition to a more “green society”, which will require creative education
initiatives (make it hopeful)
Fed agency plays a role in education. It should be cohesive, comprehensive (not
museums – those who go are not the people who need to be educated – need to engaged
the disengaged and cautious) – and synergistic
Climate change brings opportunites (Obama talked to UN – quote from Sept 2009)
“The security and sustainability of each nation and all peoples – our prosperity , our
health …
Obstacles to achieving climate literacy
 complex and multi-disciplinary
 ….
DRAFT near term goals
 A catalytic change in the formal and informal edu systems that promote ESS, …
 Increase the number of educators in K-16
 In crease number , diversity, quality fo stuents pursuing climate-related edu and
career paths
 Articulate a shared strategic vision for national climate edu that respects
individual agency priorities and responsibilityesm, identifies opportunities for
interagency collav, and establishes mech and infrastructure needs…
ID# ED31C-02
Location: 3020 (Moscone West)
Time of Presentation: Dec 16 8:15 AM - 8:30 AM
Global Warming’s Six Americas: An Audience Segmentation Analysis (Invited)
C. Roser-Renouf1; E. Maibach1; A. Leiserowitz2
1. Center for Climate Change Communication, Dept. of Communication, George Mason
University, Fairfax, VA, United States.
2. Yale Project on Climate Change, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale
University, New Haven, CT, United States.
One of the first rules of effective communication is to “know thy audience.” People have
different psychological, cultural and political reasons for acting – or not acting – to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and climate change educators can increase their impact
by taking these differences into account.
In this presentation we will describe six unique audience segments within the American
public that each responds to the issue in its own distinct way, and we will discuss
methods of engaging each. The six audiences were identified using a nationally
representative survey of American adults conducted in the fall of 2008 (N=2,164). In two
waves of online data collection, the public’s climate change beliefs, attitudes, risk
perceptions, values, policy preferences, conservation, and energy-efficiency behaviors
were assessed. The data were subjected to latent class analysis, yielding six groups
distinguishable on all the above dimensions.
The Alarmed (18%) are fully convinced of the reality and seriousness of climate change
and are already taking individual, consumer, and political action to address it. The
Concerned (33%) – the largest of the Six Americas – are also convinced that global
warming is happening and a serious problem, but have not yet engaged with the issue
personally. Three other Americas – the Cautious (19%), the Disengaged (12%) and the
Doubtful (11%) – represent different stages of understanding and acceptance of the
problem, and none are actively involved. The final America – the Dismissive (7%) – are
very sure it is not happening and are actively involved as opponents of a national effort to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Mitigating climate change will require a diversity of messages, messengers and methods
that take into account these differences within the American public. The findings from
this research can serve as guideposts for educators on the optimal choices for reaching
and influencing target groups with varied informational needs, values and beliefs.
Contact Information
Connie Roser-Renouf, Fairfax, Virginia, USA, 22030, click here to send an email
Online survey that will help us communicate better with different segments of
America
Beliefes, level of involvement, policy preferences, behaviors – understand that people
iffer, and start from their perspectice
Alarmed – concerned – cautious – disengaged – doubtful – dismissive
Use the term global warming because it’s more recognized. Climate change – half of
people haven’t heard of it
1. Belief in the reality of climate change – it’s real
2. certainty – I’m certain it’s real
3. human implication – people caused it
4-5
Many alarmed, more concerned, fair amount of cautious to dismissive
When do you think GW will start to harm people in the US? Alarmed: now
Concerned: in 10-15 years
Disengaged or cautious: 35-40 years
Dismissive: never
How much do you think global warming will harm future generations of people?
Dismissive say NOT AT ALL
How much do you think GW will harm you personally?
LESS for everyone, even the alarmed and concerned.
Assuming GW is happening, do you think it is
 caused mostly by humans
 caused mostly by natural changes,
 both
 none of the above, because it’s not happening
Can humans fix it?
 we can and will – almost nobody thinks so
 we can mitigate it but note sure whether we wil – more think so
Most people coming into science museums are already in top two categories. They don’t
need outreach.
How can we reach out to lower groups?
How much had you thought about GW before today? Dismissive had thought about it
more than disengaged! Cautious and doubtful analyzing who info comes from?
Cautious and disengaged are those most likely to change their mind
Most believe scientists agree – except Dismissive and Doubtful
Who do you trust as sources of GW? Scientists the most
How high a priority should GW be for president and congress? Cautious and disengaged
more supportive than expected
Little support across the board for cap and trade
More support across the board for alternatives/renewables
Behaviors – little difference between groups! – largely due to constaints within the
system
Climatechange.gmu.edu
Research.yale.edu/environment/climate
ID# ED31C-03
Location: 3020 (Moscone West)
Time of Presentation: Dec 16 8:30 AM - 8:45 AM
Creationism & Climate Change (Invited)
S. Newton1
1. National Center for Science Education, Oakland, CA, United States.
Although creationists focus on the biological sciences, recently creationists have also
expanded their attacks to include the earth sciences, especially on the topic of climate
change. The creationist effort to deny climate change, in addition to evolution and
radiometric dating, is part of a broader denial of the methodology and validity of science
itself. Creationist misinformation can pose a serious problem for science educators, who
are further hindered by the poor treatment of the earth sciences and climate change in
state science standards. Recent changes to Texas’ science standards, for example, require
that students learn “different views on the existence of global warming.” Because of
Texas’ large influence on the national textbook market, textbooks presenting nonscientific “different views” about climate change—or simply omitting the subject entirely
because of the alleged “controversy”—could become part of K-12 classrooms across the
country.
www.ncseweb.org
Contact Information
Steven Newton, Oakland, California, USA, 94609, click here to send an email
Climategate
Common themes
State standards: Louisiana, Texase
Climategate: Hacked emails from U. East Anglian- alleged data manipulation a trick to
hide decoine
Discovery Institute for Intelligent Design (Seattle) – 11 articles in 5 days
He’s lecturing like a true believer himself – break time for me
ID# ED31C-04
Location: 3020 (Moscone West)
Time of Presentation: Dec 16 8:45 AM - 9:00 AM
A Second Chance: What can informal science learning institutions uniquely
contribute to public inquiry about climate change? (Invited)
D. Bartels1 , Exploratorium, San Francisco, CA, United States.
The science of climate change is complicated.
Even for adult audiences, scientific ideas such as non-linear modeling, probability and
uncertainty, complexity and multivariate relationships, and the dynamic relationship
between physical and human systems were not part of the typical curriculum for most of
us in school. Moreover, many adults are invested in the myth that the aim of scientists is
“truth-seeking” as opposed to finding the best interpretation that fits the best available
empirical data. Science too often is presented even to adults as sets of answers and
certainties.
The forthcoming “Green Book” from the NSF Advisory Committee on Environmental
Research and Education makes a novel recommendation that in these times adult
environmental science literacy is as critical as education programs for K-12 and
university students. Its reasoning is the stakes regarding the most pressing global
environmental issues of our day—climate change chief among them—likely require such
significant change in human behavior in the immediate term that it cannot wait for
another generation of children to grow up. Practices and behaviors must change
immediately. The report identifies the approximately 15,000 informal science learning
institutions across the United States as the perfect adult science education delivery system
to address this challenge.
However, for the informal science learning community to engage this challenge most
effectively, it must take care in its response given the complexity of the science, even for
adults. It cannot perpetuate the idea of science as static and certain or separate itself from
the social sciences. Yet the scientific community has very important stories to tell which
have an immediate urgency to humankind. How do you explain the importance of
uncertainty and science as a process while at the same time conveying confidence about
scientific consensus where it exists?
We will discuss ways of framing these important questions about adult learning and the
science of climate change to assist scientists, informal science learning institutions and
others increase the probability of enhanced credibility, understanding and action on the
part of those of us beyond our school years.
exploratorium.edu
Contact Information
Dennis Bartels, San Francisco, California, USA, 94123, click here to send an email
Calculus is great, but we don’t teach enough statistics, so even adults and college students
don’t understand uncertanties.
People need understanding of SYSTEMS - what if A depends on B, C, and D, not just
one variable.
This is an ADULT education system. There are 15,000 informal adult educational sites –
aquariua, zoos, exploratoriums
Too many adults think science is truth-seeking. Scientists understand this is a PROCESS
of model-making, not a set of truths.
NYT arts editor complained – why is every science center becoming a science center of
climate change? They see their role as to proselytize. How to convey the scientific
method and the importance of civic action for policy?
Each week, SF Exploratorium train polar scientists for a week on how to communicate
with the public, then send them to the poles. They broadcast back, including messiness
of process.
Heat and temperature – basic building blocks
NOAA – 5 year partnership – wonderful digital data sharing on sailing ship
TALK WITH HIM ABOUT STAR - SDO DATA
Evans website – where do your beliefs come from – lots of emails about climategate
Statistics, probability, risk, consequences - evenings for adults – risky behavior,
dangerous situations. How do you get people to really understand – run social
experiments after a couple of beers- when might you change social behavior due to
possible consequences?
Don’t tell people what to think, but help them learn to think for themselves.
Met Dennis Bartels with Mary Miller after his talk – meet tomorrow at 9 am at
Intercontinental hotel with Clay (and Neal? And Tom?) They are very interested in
putting Clay and Riley’s STAR oftware online at Exploratorium, especially after they
build their new observatory on the wharf – in 4-5 years! Too long to wait.
Tom said NASA is co-opting not only our SDO data analysis front-end for the public, but
also the Space Weather Prediction Center, even though N must use Tom’s data. NASA
is bloated with people looking for something meaningful to do.
ID# ED31C-05
Location: 3020 (Moscone West)
Time of Presentation: Dec 16 9:00 AM - 9:15 AM
AMS Climate Studies: Improving climate literacy through undergraduate education
J. A. Brey1; I. W. Geer1; J. M. Moran1; R. S. Weinbeck1; E. W. Mills1; B. A. Blair1; E. J.
Hopkins2; T. P. Kiley Jr.1; E. E. Ruwe1
1. Education Program, American Meteorological Society, Washington, DC, United
States.
2. Environmental Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United
States.
In working to promote scientific literacy among the public, the American Meteorological
Society (AMS) has produced a suite of introductory college-level courses that engage
students by investigating relevant topics in Earth science, and utilizing the most current,
real-world environmental data.
The newest of these courses, AMS Climate Studies, is a turnkey package which will be
licensed by individual colleges for local offering in online, blended, or traditional
lecture/lab settings. The course will place students in a dynamic learning environment
where they will investigate Earth’s climate system using real-world data. This will allow
the course to keep a strong focus on the science, while still addressing many of the
societal impacts that draw the attention of today’s students. In this way, the course will
serve as a great primer in preparing students to become responsible, scientifically-literate
participants in discussions of climate science and climate change.
Developed with major support from NASA, AMS Climate Studies will encourage
students to investigate the atmosphere and world ocean as components of a larger Earth
system. More than 500 colleges and universities throughout the United States have
already offered AMS Weather Studies and AMS Ocean Studies, after which AMS
Climate Studies will be modeled.
The learning system will consist of a fully-integrated set of printed and online learning
materials focused around a brand new, hardcover 15-chapter textbook, Climate Studies:
Introduction to Climate Science and an Investigations Manual with 30 lab-style activities
that will emphasize the use of authentic science data. The package will also include a
course website providing weekly Current Climate Studies activities along with access to
environmental data streams, including an impressive suite of NASA and NOAA images
and products.
The development and testing of AMS Climate Studies is currently nearing completion. A
number of college and university professors have been selected to pilot the program in
Spring 2010, with major emphasis placed on representing a diverse array of institution
types, degree programs, course delivery methods, academic backgrounds, etc. The
materials will be vigorously tested and updated accordingly. AMS Climate Studies will
be available for implementation at your institution beginning Fall 2010.
http://www.ametsoc.org/climatestudies
Contact Information
James A. Brey, Washington, District of Columbia, USA, 20005, click here to send an
email
Textbook by James Moran
Partly online – 30 hands-on labs, games, - their team writes a new exercise every
Thursday based on newest data – weekly climate news (NASA feeds), links, resources,
semester archives, …
Faculty resources: CD,, textbook images, , testbank, etc…
They will mentor faculty through first semester if they wish
Diversity workshops… into minority-serving schools
AMS Weather Studies also (and AMS Ocean Studies)
ID# ED31C-06
Location: 3020 (Moscone West)
Time of Presentation: Dec 16 9:15 AM - 9:30 AM
Translating Scientific Conclusions about Risk for Public Audiences
Tom. E. Bowman1
1. Bowman Global Change, Signal Hill, CA, United States.
Climate change has been aptly described as a problem of risk management, yet the
scientific community has not been successful in helping the public engage in risk
management effectively. Behavioral science studies demonstrate that, while the public
generally accepts the reality of anthropogenic climate change today, the immanence of
impacts and scale of risk and opportunities for effective mitigation are poorly understood.
Helping the public overcome these misperceptions and engage in decision-making about
climate risks is, perhaps, the climate communication community’s most urgent priority.
Scientific writing and graphic conventions are poorly suited for communicating with nonscientists. Using examples from the IPCC 4th Assessment, this session will demonstrate
how specific conventions in science writing and graph making have obscured critical
information about climate risks. The session will further demonstrate how reformatting
the graphical information can create an exceptionally clear picture of where humanity
stands and the implications of various emissions pathways for the future. Attendees will
appreciate how presentations of science results can be tailored to answer the public’s
questions more effectively by highlighting useful information in accurate, yet accessible
ways.
Decision-makers and the public urgently need information about climate impact risks and
the consequences of various emissions pathways. Yet written and graphic descriptions
from the IPCC and other assessment agencies burden non-scientists with multiple
temperature baselines (e.g., pre-Industrial, mid-20th century, late 20th century, today),
two confusingly similar measures for the key human contribution to atmospheric
composition (CO2 and CO2-eq), and multiple ways of describing probability and
certainty. The public is further confounded by inconsistent graphic conventions in
scientific figures, including inconsistent color-coding, labeling, axis orientation, and
treatment of uncertainty. Scientific figures tend to either include too many different
messages or over-generalize, and neither approach helps non-scientists identify useful
metrics and apply them to decision-making.
This session will briefly illustrate each of these problematic scientific conventions and
present a more effective translation of key IPCC figures in a new graphic format that help
non-scientists appreciate our situation and opportunities. This translation has received
positive reviews from informal learning institutions and will be useful to the broader
science communication community.
www.bowmanglobalchange.com
Contact Information
Thomas E. Bowman, Signal Hill, California, USA, 90755-0000, click here to send an
email
1. identify key public misperceptions
2. translate sci graphic figures appropriately
3. audience tests (16 presentations, HS to business audiences)
Key misconceptions:
* immediacy of impacts?
* scale of mitigation required?
* whether viable solutions exist?
* whether we make effective choices?
The climate choice: Limits + Odds = Emissions trajectory
Limit: where shall we draw the line on consequences?
Odds: how certain do we want to be about staying below the limit?
Emissions trajectory: the rate and depth of emissions cuts = Options + Tradeoffs
Draw Earth as bulb of Thermometer, show impacts for different T rises
Tipping points (emissions trajectories)
ID# ED31C-07
Location: 3020 (Moscone West)
Time of Presentation: Dec 16 9:30 AM - 9:45 AM
Global Climate Change for Kids: Making Difficult Ideas Accessible and Exciting
D. K. Fisher1; N. Leon1; M. P. Greene1
1. JPL, Pasadena, CA, United States.
NASA has recently launched its Global Climate Change web site
(http://climate.nasa.gov), and it has been very well received. It has now also launched in
preliminary form an associated site for children and educators, with a plan for completion
in the near future. The goals of the NASA Global Climate Change Education site are:
To increase awareness and understanding of climate change science in upper-elementary
and middle-school students, reinforcing and building upon basic concepts introduced in
the formal science education curriculum for these grades;
To present, insofar as possible, a holistic picture of climate change science and current
evidence of climate change, describing Earth as a system of interconnected processes;
To be entertaining and motivating;
To be clear and easy to understand;
To be easy to navigate;
To address multiple learning styles;
To describe and promote "green" careers;
To increase awareness of NASA's contributions to climate change science;
To provide valuable resources for educators;
To be compliant with Section 508 of the Americans with Disabilities Act.
The site incorporates research findings not only on climate change, but also on effective
web design for children. It is envisioned that most of the content of the site will
ultimately be presented in multimedia forms. These will include illustrated and narrated
"slide shows," animated expositions, interactive concept-rich games and demonstrations,
videos, animated fictionalized stories, and printable picture galleries. In recognition of the
attention span of the audience, content is presented in short, modular form, with a
suggested, but not mandatory order of access. Empathetic animal and human cartoon
personalities are used to explain concepts and tell stories. Expository, fiction, game,
video, text, and image modules are interlinked for reinforcement of similar ideas.
NASA's Global Climate Change Education web site addresses the vital need to impart
and emphasize Earth system science concepts at or near the beginning of the education
pipeline.
http://climate.nasa.gov
Contact Information
Diane K. Fisher, Pasadena, California, USA, 91109-0000, click here to send an email
JPL, CalTech
ID# ED31C-08
Location: 3020 (Moscone West)
Time of Presentation: Dec 16 9:45 AM - 10:00 AM
Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN)
T. S. Ledley1; M. McCaffrey2
1. Center for Science Teaching and Learning, TERC, Cambridge, MA, United States.
2. CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States.
“Climate Science Literacy is an understanding of your influence on climate and climate’s
influence on you and society.” In order to ensure the nation increases its literacy, the
Climate Literacy: Essential Principles of Climate Science document has been developed.
In order to promote the implementation of these Climate Literacy Essential Principles the
Climate Literacy Network (CLN, http://www.climateliteracynow.org) was formed in
January 2008. Made up of a broad spectrum of stakeholders, this group addresses the
complex issues involved in making climate literacy real for all citizens. Efforts within the
CLN to improve climate literacy and energy awareness include:
1) the development of the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN)
Pathway project, recently funded by NSF’s National STEM Education Distributed
Learning (NSDL) and Climate Change Education programs; and
2) the development of a regional model (Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness
Network-New England – CLEAN-NE) to coordinate and leverage the wide range of
activities focused on climate and energy that are already occurring, with plans that the
model will be adapted to other regions around the country.
The CLEAN Pathway project will steward a collection of resources that directly address
the Climate Literacy: Essential Principles of Climate Science. In addition, it will provide
a number of avenues of professional and community development opportunities to
facilitate cyberlearning on climate and energy.
CLEAN-NE is an initiative to educate high school and college students in the region
about climate change and energy and its importance to our planet and society. Through
this program, high school students will connect with college mentors, and together they
will gain the foundation of climate literacy necessary to change their actions to reflect a
more energy-conscious lifestyle. They will then engage their peers and communities in
their mission to become climate-literate citizens and lead sustainable lifestyles.
In this talk we will describe our efforts through CLN, CLEAN-NE, and the CLEAN
Pathway to increase climate literacy and energy awareness in educational contexts as well
for individual citizens and communities, providing them with the knowledge and tools to
address these issues in a responsible way.
http://www.climateliteracynow.org
Contact Information
Tamara S. Ledley, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, 02140-0000, click here to send an
email
Group (~90) meets virtually every week – focuses on educational contexts – discuss info
on climate science & climate literacy, policy, imact on community groups, citizens
climateliteracynetwork@list.terc.edu
www.climateliteraccynow.org
They produce white papters… Much activity is not funded…
NSF Digital Library (NSDL), SERC @ Carleton, CLEP (Climate & Energy Pathway),
more sources
Virtual / online workshops
10:20 AM-11:25 AM, 309 (Moscone South)
NG32A. Lorenz Lecture
10:20-10:25 AM
Shaun Lovejoy, McGill University Introduction
ID# NG32A-01
Location: 309 (Moscone South)
Time of Presentation: Dec 16 10:25 AM - 11:25 AM
Complexity of Earth's Magnetosphere: Coherence in a Multiscale
Open System (Invited)
A. Surja. Sharma1
1. Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park,
MD, United States.
Earth’s magnetosphere exhibits complex behavior with the
characteristic scales spanning many orders of magnitude. The plasma
processes underlying the spatio-temporal variability have scales from
the electron (10 km) to magnetohydrodynamic (10 Earth radii) scales.
These processes are strongly coupled, due mainly to the electrodynamic
nature of the interactions in the dipole magnetic field. The multiscale
internal dynamics of the magnetosphere, coupled with the turbulent
nature of its driver, the solar wind, leads to its ubiquitous
nonequilibrium nature. Modeling and prediction of such multiscale
systems is a challenge, as dynamical as well as statistical approaches
require the presence of dominant scales. In the case of the solar wind magnetosphere system the availability of extensive time series data of
both make a dynamical method such as the input-output approach an
appropriate choice. In particular, the ground-based magnetic field
measurements of the magnetospheric response and the spacecraft
measurements of the solar wind variables have been used for modeling
and prediction based on nonlinear dynamical systems theory. The
dynamical modeling uses the time-delay embedding technique for the
reconstruction of phase space and is based on an averaging process
similar to the mean-field approach. This yields a coherent dynamical
behavior in the reconstructed phase space and predictions can be made
using the time series data. This approach has been used successfully to
make near real-time forecasts of space weather. The inherent multiscale
nature of the system however requires characterizations of the statistical
properties using probability distribution functions, specially for
understanding extreme events. The long-term correlations inherent in
the magnetosphere are studied using auto-correlation and mutualinformation functions, yielding features represented by two exponents.
The characterization in terms of two exponents reflects the existence of
two kinds of behavior, viz. the directly driven and internal
magnetospheric features. Analyses of the return intervals in the time
series data for varying thresholds show long-range correlations with
decreasing strengths for higher thresholds, similar to some multifractal
systems. This feature is studied in more detail using detrended
fluctuation analysis and yields features of the magnetosphere similar to
those of multiplicative random cascade processes. The dynamical
approach based on the coherent behavior, together with the statistical
characterizations, provides a comprehensive model of the multiscale
magnetosphere. Considering Earth's magnetosphere as a proto-typical
large scale open system this approach can be used in the modeling and
prediction of such systems in Nature.
Contact Information
A S. Sharma, College Park, Maryland, USA, 20742-0000, click here to
send an email
OVERVIEW:
Complexity: dynamics & structure
Earth’s magnetosphere: an open system
Reconstruction of dynamics from time series data
Modeling the global dynamics – predictability
Multiscale phenomenon – statistical aspects
Spatio-temporal modeling
Multiscale compelx networks
Implications for plasma physics
Applications to other areas
Conclusion
Nonlinear dynamics & complexity
Lorentz 1961 modeled circulation in atmosphere with 3 coupled equation –
understanding of deterministic dynamics – chaos – no direct contact with data
Structure – Mandelbrot 1977 – real objects in nature – trees, clou8ds, costlines, fractals, multifractals
Reconstruction of Dynamics: “Geometry from a time series (Packard et al PRL 1980)
Embedding theorem (Takens 1981): time series x(t) and
time-delay embedding, reconstructed space (Broomhead & King, Phys A
1986)
Correlation function C ~ rv, Correlation dimension v (Grassberger & Procaccia, PRL
1983)
Applied to Earth’s magnetosphere – episodic nature – dipole
Storms and substorms driven by the solar wind (supersonic flow)
Slowed to subsonic at bow shock
Flux piles up on night side, stretches more -> reconnection (snaps back to
ionosphere
Flow of current in ionosphere reflects dynamics in magnetosphere
(Lyon, Science, 2001): reconnection on Global scale, MHD scale, Hall=-MHD scale,
electron scale
Auroral electrojet indices (upper and lower) – lower envelope has more variation and
stronger connection with stroms?
Reconstruction of phase space and correlation dimension – converges to a low value
(Vassiliadis et al GRL 1990)
Ortho Normal coordinates – Singular Spectrum analysis – Sharma et al GL 1993 –
dynamical structure converges in phase space (embedded space) (looks like Lorentz
diagram)
NB – magnetosphere is strongly driven by turbulent solar wind
Global coherence – low dimensionality – complementary works
Synthesis of theory, modeling and obs: “The magnetosphere convulses during
substorms” Siscoe, Eos 1991
Drpping faucet model of substorms – Baker et al GRL 1990
Faraday loop analog model – Klimas et al JGR 1992
Low-D energy cons nonlin dim – Wendell Horton
Strongly driven magnetosphere – substorms during 81 intense storms in 2001
Solar wind data matches magnetospheric responses (Chen, PhD Diss, 2007)
Conditional probability dist fxns (pdf) drops with magnetospheric response, regardless of
solar wind energy
Reconstructon of Dynamics: input = SW induced E field, output = auroral electrojet
index AL (doesn’t look like a good reconstruction)
Consider substorm = transition from higher level to lower level (AH to AL). They think
they get this with MHD analysis.
Mean-field model and prediction: nearest neighbors of current state: consider center of
mass as mean state in space, and mean state in time, predict output and mean response.
Predict trajectory of any point based on trajectories of neighbors.
Prediction sort of matches shape of matches actual data sometimes, but not quantity.
Mean field and Weighted mean-field models – count nearer neighbors more heavily
I’m going back to Edu & Public Awareness talks – this one is not so good and it has half
an hour to go.
10:20 AM-12:20 PM, 3020 (Moscone West)
ED32A. Education and Communication for Climate Literacy and Energy
Awareness II
ID# ED32A-07
Location: 3020 (Moscone West)
Time of Presentation: Dec 16 11:50 AM - 12:05 PM
Using Content-Aligned Assessments to Find Gaps in Understanding of Fundamental
Concepts for Weather and Climate
J. Wertheim1; G. E. DeBoer1
1. Project 2061, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington,
DC, United States.
Efforts to assess students’ climate literacy so far have focused mainly on evaluating their
understanding of advanced ideas about earth’s complex climate system. It is widely
accepted that students, their teachers, and most other adults have persistent
misconceptions about climate processes (e.g., the hole in the ozone layer is the main
cause of global warming) that preclude them having an accurate understanding of more
advanced ideas about the climate. Having established that significant gaps in climate
literacy exist even at the college level, it is important to identify where the gaps in
understanding of concepts fundamental to climate literacy occur. Here we present results
from the most comprehensive assessment of middle and high school students’
understanding of the weather and climate topic to date. Students were given 90 multiplechoice assessment items aligned to various fundamental ideas about weather and climate.
Students were also asked to justify their answer choices and to explain why each answer
choice was either correct or incorrect. The items were administered to 2063 middle
school students and 1006 high school students from 76 schools across the country,
sampling a wide range of demographic groups.
For the entire set of items, the percent correct for middle school students was 39% and
for high school students was 47%. With high school students scoring only 8% better than
middle school students overall, and middle school students equaling or outperforming
high school students on 20% of the items, it is evident that most high school students do
not adequately understand the foundational concepts that climate literacy is built upon,
knowledge that is needed if they are going to successfully learn more sophisticated
concepts in college. The results from this study are used to validate known
misconceptions for middle and high school students, identify new misconceptions, and
examine previously reported misconceptions that were not supported by this national
study. Students’ answers and written comments are also used to identify which of these
essential ideas are and are not being learned by middle school and high school students in
order to assist teachers in focusing instructional attention in areas where it is most
needed. The results are also helpful for alerting college-level faculty of some of the
specific weaknesses in the conceptual models of weather and climate ideas that many
students bring to college.
Contact Information
Jill Wertheim, Washington, District of Columbia, USA, 20005, click here to send an
email
Afternoon Posters
1:40 PM-6:00 PM, Poster Hall (Moscone South)
ED33A. Education and Communication for Climate Literacy and Energy
Awareness IV Posters
1:40 PM-6:00 PM, Poster Hall (Moscone South)
ED33B. Missing Links! Scientists' Communication on Critical Global
Environmental Change Issues I Posters
1:40 PM-6:00 PM, Poster Hall (Moscone South)
OS33A. Geological Setting of Gas Hydrate Reservoirs and Seeps: A Source for
Clean Energy and/or Storage for CO2 I Posters
2:40 PM-3:40 PM, 104 (Moscone South)
SH33C. Parker Lecture (This session will be Webcast)
ID# SH33C-01
Location: 104 (Moscone South)
Time of Presentation: Dec 16 2:45 PM - 3:40 PM
A Voyage through the Heliosphere (Invited – parker lecture)
L. F. Burlaga1
1. Geospace Physics Laboratory, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States.
Parker adopted the word “Heliosphere” to denote “the region of interstellar space swept
out by the solar wind” His book “Interplanetary Dynamical Processes” (1963) provided
“a comprehensive self-consistent dynamical picture of interplanetary activity” on spatial
scales from the Larmor radius to the outermost limits of the heliosphere and over a broad
range of temporal scales. The spacecraft Voyagers 1 and 2 have taken us on a journey
through much of the heliosphere: from Earth, past the termination shock near 90 AU, and
into the inner heliosheath. This talk will use magnetic field observations from V1 and V2
to illustrate how Parker’s dynamical picture has been largely confirmed by observations
out to ~100 AU. It will also discuss some “complicating aspects of the dynamics…which
will turn up in future observations…” that Parker envisaged. With continued funding, the
Voyager spacecraft will allow us to explore the heliosheath, cross the boundary of the
heliosphere, and sample the local interstellar medium, guided by still untested predictions
of Parker.
Contact Information
Leonard F. Burlaga, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA, 20771-0000, click here to send an email
(Van Allen - SM, Nicolet Lecture - SA)
Radial profile of heliospheric field drops off as 1/r2, but bumps up due to solar maxes
Parker’s predictions were verified by Voyager in many cases
1963 Parker’s book: Interplaneraty Dynamical Processes – before we had many
measurements of solar wind (SW) “illustrate ethe underlying principles and the gross
features of the interplanetary plasmas and fields…
Parker predicted supersonic (300 km/s)SW carrying B field with it – ASPIRAL field due
to solar rotation: “Parker’s spiral field “m 1958
Predicted what we should see as far as the termination shock – took Voyager 40 yeaers to
get out there. – excellent agreement between theory and obs
2. Parker considered corotating interaction region (CIR) and fast corating stream –
collision between there squeezes and enhances B = CIR, typically observed during
decolining phase of solar cycle
Period = 26 days, large amplitude and large amplitude variation (at 15 AU)
When voyager ws further away (V1: 55 AU) periodicity was less evident – more random,
further from sun. LB collaborated wtwh Chi Wang to develop (1D tme-dependent MHD)
model – close to obs.
1-5 AU – interactions tend to merge and form larger structures. This merging continues
to 25 AU.
Beyond 25 AU, pattern is disturbed, periodicity is lost… - phase transition
3. Transient ejecta – Magnetic loop & shock. Let it go supersonic toward earth -> blast
front. Magnetic cloud measured to have nested helical field line inside- constant-alpha
force-free system – still not quite sure how this developes. Not turbulent field lines.
Also can get “complex ejecta” from some – tangled field line
4. interactions among flow: “The many features… iteract within themselves anad
with eaech other in ways which are too complicated to deduce from theory…”
Interaction: quasi-stationary corotating stream & transient ejecta … shocks and
accelerated particles
Activity on Sun -> shell of disturbed magnetid magnetic fields propagated outwaqrd from
Sun
Global merged interaction regions (GMIR) – highly variable, persisting for several solar
rotations, over 25 AU away.
GMIR may cluster by 15 AU, merge by 25 AU, grow up to 50 -60 AU, then decay
further out (Still some peakedness at 90 AU that should disturb the heliosheath – haven’t
seen that yet)
We don’t know BC. SW is not a gas in a box. It’s a highly nonlineaer, open, driven
system. Need a different Stat mech for that. “Nonextensive Stat Mech.” Predicts three
kinds of functions.
 maximize entropy: q-Gaussian -> calculate dist functions for dBn/<B>
 SW has multifractal structure – Voyager fits quadratic -(a) vs a
 Correlation fxn for Boltzmann fxn – Boltzmann is exponential, but this one is
power law (decreasing) C(d) ~ d-t
6. Interaction with the interstellar medium – conventional paradigm: heliopause =
Bow shock -> heliopause
Voyager say M field jump of 0.1 nT crossing from SW to termination shock (weaker than
predictied. Highly variable B in heliosheath
Voyager II crossed heliosheath (or termination shock?) in 2007
Crossed TS multiple times because it has ripples
TS is not stationary – it forms, decays, and re-forms again over hours – very dynamic
High turbulence in heliosheath, then more coherent , yet variable field…
Literature predicted that B shold increase beyond heliopause, but it actually decreased.
Anser from Parker + WSM: (Brecent ~ 1 nT – record low)
Heliopause = boundary of heliosphere. P: just look at standard paradigm. Or is it open
front and back, if there’s motion?
Voyagers I and II will cross Heliopause in coming years…
Hopi petroglyph with spiral sun with ripples for heliopause
4:00 PM-6:00 PM, 103 (Moscone South)
U34A. Consequences of an Unusually Long and Deep Solar Minimum
ID# U34A-01
Location: 103 (Moscone South)
Time of Presentation: Dec 16 4:00 PM - 4:18 PM
Solar magnetic field and irradiance: how unusual is the current minimum? (Invited)
S. K. Solanki1, 2; N. Krivova1; L. A. Vieira1, 3
1. Max-Planck-Institute for Solar System Research, Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany.
2. School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea, Republic of.
3. French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Paris, France.
In many respects the current minimum of solar activity is rather different from other
minima during the last half century, which has seen the Sun in a state of unusually high
activity. This uncommon minimum has fascinated solar physicists. Of particular
importance for our understanding is the behaviour of the magnetic field, which is the
source of all activity observed in the solar atmosphere, including the heliosphere.
Furthermore, the evolution of dark and bright magnetic features on the solar surface
modulates the solar irradiance, which could directly influence the Earth's climate. In this
presentation observations and models of the evolution of the Sun's magnetic field and
irradiance are reviewed. After discussing the variation of these quantities over the solar
cycle and from cycle to cycle, the current minimum is considered in greater detail. It is
compared to earlier minima going back to the Maunder minimum and, in a more
averaged sense, to solar activity and irradiance during the whole Holocene. Questions
that will be considered are: Are we leaving the period of high solar activity (a grand
maximum) to enter into a phase of more moderate activity, or even into a grand
minimum? How could such a change in the level of the magnetic field and irradiance aid
us in gaining further insight into the nature of the Sun's influence on the Earth's climate?
Contact Information
Sami K. Solanki, Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany, 37191, click here to send an email
Why study the current minimum?
 Does the Sun significantly influence climate? Need to know how strong a secular
trend is shown by solar irradiance
 The Sun’s B & its interaction w/ motions in solar interior drive irradiance
variations. Solar activity and the corona and heliosphere -> need to know the
present B relative to previous minima
 The present min may provide ways of testing the B’s generation
 Predicability tells us something about the maturity of our science – about the
same as economics – pretty bad
Sun’s open B is lower now than at any time in space age
Sunspot number 762 spotless days (til 1 dec 09) = twice as manay as aerage of previous
minima, but similar to 4 cycles in late 19th C
POLAR MAGNETIC FIELD:
During activity min the interplanetary B is fed mainly by B flux at solar poles
The polar B during the current min is about half that during last 3 min
But not so strange compared to 18th C
TSI: during present min is 0.28 W/m-2 lower than average of two previous min (Claus
Frohlich)
TOTAL MAGNETIC FLUX integrated over whole disk
 currently 60% that of last min – even excluding poles’ open flux. Structure of B
in network is different
 obtained from integrated MDI full-disk magnetograms
 reduced B flux in 2009 – B field can explain currently reduced TSI -? TSI
variations are due to surface B (Wenzler et al 2006) -=> contradicts Frohlich
For the first time we’re seeing a secular change in the total flux.
Can explain it with overlapping solar cycles
 emergence of flux from new cycle before end of previous cycle (Harvey 1993)
 long lifetime (decay time) of open (and closed flux) Schriver__
Can we produce low total B-field
 starting from Sunspot number, model of Solanki et al (2000, 2002) explained
secular variations of total and open B flux
 Extension by Viera and Solanki (2010) distinguish between rapidly and slowly
decaying open flux
 Better reproduce observations – specially variation over cycle
And the open flux and irradiance?
 new model reproduces measured and reconst. Open flux and TSI better than old
model – need to distinguish between fast & slow open flux
 model reproduces present min surprisingly well, but assuming that THERE IS NO
CYCLE 24 - then we get good match
 cycle 24 is expected to be relatively weak or peak late or some combination
relation to maunder min:
 according to Solanki model, MM had close to zero total and open flux
 in present min, B flux has dropped roughly to half its value in previous 5 minima

we are still far from a mm state, but are at a level similar to 19th C, also with
respect to length of cycles
Conclusions:
 current min has secular variations in both B and irradiance
 There were indirect evidence for this – now direct
 Simple models of B flux evolution reproduce data reolativelyy well, including
unusual current min
 Behaviour of present min suggests that the Sun is returning to an activity level
like that in 19th C
 Or like that of most of Holocene (last 7000 years) – Sunspot number has been
unusually high in last 50-60 years – grand max
 Sun is leaving its recent grand max
Effects of low solar activity upon the cosmic radiation and the interplanetary …
McCracken
1. Paleo cosmic ray record from 10Be and 36Cl (and 14C). also solar flares can
produce nitrates which get trapped in polar ice caps
2. the past 1100 years
3. …
McCracken analyzes minima with various filters. See Beer et at 2007, McCracken 2001
Looks like we might be in a Gleissberg min now. He says Dalton Min
Low-pass filter shows that last 50-60 years have been unusually high period of solar
ativity (and rising) – Sami Solanki agrees, despite this WSM
My notes ; Gleissberg Min every 80-85 years:
1650-1700
1800-1820
1900 2008-2010
ID# U34A-03
Location: 103 (Moscone South)
Time of Presentation: Dec 16 4:36 PM - 4:46 PM
The Torsional Oscillation and the Solar Minimum
R. Howe1; F. Hill1; R. Komm1; J. Christensen-Dalsgaard2; J. Schou3; M. J. Thompson4
1. National Solar Observatory, Tucson, AZ, United States.
2. Department of Physics and Astronomy, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
3. HEPL Solar Physicss, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States.
4. School of Applied Mathematics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom.
The so-called torsional oscillation is a pattern of zonal flow bands, detected at the solar
surface by direct Doppler measurements and within the convection zone by helioseismic
measurements such as those carried out by the Global Oscillations Network Group and
the Michelson Doppler Imager, that migrates from mid-latitudes towards the equator and
poles with each solar cycle. In the current minimum the low-latitude branch of the pattern
can be seen to have taken at least a year longer to migrate towards the equator than was
the case in the previous minimum. A flow configuration matching that of the previous
minimum was reached during 2008, and by early 2009 the fast-rotating belt associated
with the new cycle had reached the latitude at which the onset of activity was seen in
Cycle 23, but magnetic activity has remained low.
We will present the most recent results and consider the implications for the new solar
cycle.
Contact Information
Rachel Howe, Tucson, Arizona, USA, 85719, click here to send an email
Torsional oscillation shows branch of cycle 24 emerged at high lats around 2004
Looks like a reasonable normal cycle to her, just coming late, drawn out.
Cycle 21:10.6 yr,
cycle 22: 9.6 yr,
cycle 23:12 yr+
Mapping sun’s atmosphere into interplanetary space – Janet Luhman (short blond
hair), SSL, UC Berkeley
They’ve picked up Munoz-jaramillo’s model – pretty spinning fields
But magnetograms reveal more of the details we care about
Some PhD student is modeling emerging flux like Yuhong Fan
She’s showing lots of pictues from public domain
More low-latitutde coronal holes than usual for quiet Sun – more higher-order poles
Past min was 1995-1996 (2 yrs). Current min 2006-2010 (4 yrs)
Little flurries of activity – not enough to turn things around
(Tom Bogdan said two C-class flares since yesterday! In the N hem! Most of the few
spots have been n the S hem…)
Cosmic ray flux keeps rising – maybe it will help us resolve questions about influence on
clouds.
ID# U34A-07
Location: 103 (Moscone South)
Time of Presentation: Dec 16 5:32 PM - 5:42 PM
The Unusual Time History of Galactic an Anomalous Cosmic Rays in the
Heliosphere over the Deep Solar Minimum of Cycle 23/24
F. B. McDonald1; W. R. Webber2; D. V. Reames1; E. C. Stone3; A. C. Cummings3; B. C.
Heikkila4; N. Lal4
1. Institute of Physical Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD,
United States.
2. Department of Physics and Astronomy, New Mexico State, Las Cruces, NM, United States.
3. California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States.
4. NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States.
The continuing Quiet Sun of the cycle 23/24 solar minimum has resulted in cosmic ray
intensity time-histories at 1 AU that are very different from those of the 1965 and 1987
solar minima at the same phase of the 22 year heliomagnetic cycle. Instead of the sharp
intensity peak of these earlier cycles, the cosmic ray intensity displays a broad plateau
followed by an on-going increase that has now lasted for 1.4 years. Over the cycle 19 and
21 solar minima there was a suppression of the cosmic ray intensity at rigidities below
0.5 GV while at neutron monitor energies (72 GeV) the intensity was 3-5% higher than in
qA>0 cycle. For cycle 23/24 in 2009.5 the 200 MeV/n He intensity is 25% higher than its
1987 and the neutron monitor data from the North-West University 4 Station Network is
within 1.5% of those of 1987. However, the intensity of 13.5 MeV/n ACR oxygen
intensity is a factor of 2 below its 1987 level. These complex spectral differences are
clearly caused by the decrease in strength of the interplanetary field below the level of
previous minima and the relatively high inclination of the heliospheric current sheet that
persisted until ~ 2009.3 before decreasing to lower values.
In the heliosheath cosmic ray data from Voyager 1 and 2 are showing significant
increases that reflect the changes that are occurring in the solar wind and magnetic fields
in the distant heliosphere. The relative behavior of 10 MeV GCR electrons and 150-380
MeV/n He suggest these particles follow a different route entering the heliosphere than
the higher energy cosmic rays. At this time the deep solar minimum is continuing so
further changes in the cosmic ray time histories can be expected.
Contact Information
Frank B. McDonald, College Park, Maryland, USA, 20742-2431, click here to send an
email
Burlaga + NESS: RADIAL AND SOLAR CYCLE VARIATIONS OF B FIELDS IN
THE HELIOSHEATH
We expected B to increase but it’s decreasing