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Abenomics: Skepticism and Hope
Akinari Horii
New York, November 10, 2015
Labor Market and Corporate Profits
(x)
(%)
1.6
6.0
Unemployment rate (rhs)
5.5
1.4
5.0
1.2
4.5
4.0
1.0
0.8
3.5
Job openings-toapplicants ratio (lhs)
3.0
2.5
0.6
2.0
0.4
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
(CY)
1.5
Note: Shaded areas indicate periods of recession as defined by the Cabinet
Office.
Sources: Cabinet Office, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications,
Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare
(%)
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
NOP/Sales
OP/Sales
(FY)
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
Notes: Net Operating Profit = Earnings Before Interest and Tax
Ordinary Profit = Earnings Before Tax (excl.
extraordinary gains and losses)
FY 2015 numbers are those of April – June 2015
Source: Ministry of Finance Quarterly Survey
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
Real GDP minus its Trend
Real GDP and its Trend
4.0
102.5
real GDP
trend
102.0
3.0
101.5
2.0
101.0
1.0
100.5
0.0
100.0
-1.0
99.5
-2.0
99.0
-3.0
98.5
-4.0
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4Q
Notes: 0 on x-axis is the quarter of consumption tax increase
100 on y-axis is GDP at 5 quarters preceding the increase
Source: OGURO, Kazumasa “2014nen4gatsu no shohizeiritsu hikiage no inpakuto wo saikou”
(Reassessing the economic impact of April 2014 consumption tax increase)
NIKKEI BUSINESS ON LINE (September 9, 2015)
1989
1997
2014
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5Q