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A quantitative approach to accurate classification of RA. Tom Huizinga Overview of seminar • • RA as a disease versus syndrome - perspective from a disease - perspective from a syndrome Treatment and being quantitative - early treatment - treatment focussed at a target - is there any difference in the way a target is defined? Classification: syndrome versus disease • • • RA=classic syndrome defined by criteria. Now new criteria based on the decision to start with MTX. RA as a disorder based on pathogenesis Syndrome Disease Disease subsets with a pathway leading to symptoms Association between anti-CCP-responses and HLA-DRB1 SE-alleles Leiden EAC RA patients Controls Anti-CCP antibodies positive negative +/+ 50 (25%) 16 (7%) 26 (6%) +/- 111 (55%) 88 (41%) 153 (36%) -/- 42 (21%) 109 (51%) 244 (58%) SE-status* OR allele frequency: CCP+ vs Controls: 3.38 (2.61-4.38) CCP- vs Controls: 1.22 (0.93-1.60) Huizinga TW…..Criswell L, A&R, 2005 RA consists of two syndromes: ACPA+ versus ACPAACR-classification proces: define disease based on characteristic cases ACPA+ versus ACPA- What about other risk factors? Histology? Clinical Course? Treatment response? RA consists of two syndromes: ACPA+ versus ACPAACR-classification proces: define disease based on characteristic cases HLA-SE HLA-DR3 rs- IRF5 PTPN22 ACPA+ versus ACPArs- STAT4 rs- C5-TRAF1 rs- TNFAIP3-OLIG3 rs- CTLA4 rs- STAT4 rs- CCL21 rs-MMEL1-TNFRSF14 rs-CDK6, PRKCQ, KIF5A CD40, IL2RA, IL2RB Raychaudhuri S et al. Nat Genet. 2008 Oct;40(10):1216-23 van der Helm A & Huizinga T. Arthr Res Ther. 2008;10(2):205. Huizinga et al. A&R, Arthritis Rheum. 2005 Nov;52(11):3433-8. Conclusions Synovitis of anti-CCP positive RA differs from antiCCP negative: •More infiltrating lymphocytes in anti-CCP positive RA •More fibrosis and increased synovial lining layer in anti-CCP negative RA •Difference is already present early in the disease van Oosterhout M, Bajema I, Levarht EW, Toes RE, Huizinga TW, van Laar JM. Arthritis Rheum. 2008 Jan;58(1):53-60 Phenotype clearly different Joint destruction over time drug free remission rate Fulfillment of the criteria for RA after 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 69 CCP+ Pts 249 CCP- Pts 83% 18% 90% 24% 93% 25% 318 Pts 32% 38% 40% # Can the Course of UA being altered by Early Therapy ? Inclusion: Primary End point: Undifferentiated Arthritis if so verum MTX Increase MTX based on DAS MTX Taper MTX to 0 15 – 30 mg 15 mg t=0 ACR-criteria RA t=3 6 tabs t=6 t=9 6 – 12 tabs Placebo 0 mg t = 12 t = 15 t = 18 0 tabs 30 Months Follow-up Cumulative Survival (%) Anti-CCP pos group (n=27) p=0.0002 Anti-CCP neg group (n=83) p=0.51 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 0 0 3 6 9 Time to diagnosis RA (months) 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 MTX group Placebo group Radiographic Progression Radiographic progression (Sharp/van der Heijde score) Anti-CCP pos group (n=27) p=0.03 Anti-CCP neg group (n=83) p=0.46 49 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 Cumulative probability (%) 50 75 100 MTX group Placebo group DAS in time stratified MTX Placebo ACPA pos DAS ACPA neg Time (months) Summary of ACPA positive versus ACPA negative RA • • • • • • • HLA, PTPN22, smoking point to two diseases C5-TRAF point to two diseases Output of WGAS studies point to two diseases Phenotypic data more “formally” studied Histological differences Subanalysis of PROMPT-study Propose as new criteria RA-type 1 and RA-type 2, to get criteria closer to pathogenesis Overview of seminar • • RA as a disease versus syndrome - perspective from a disease - perspective from a syndrome Treatment and being quantitative - early treatment - treatment focussed at a target - is there any difference in the way a target is defined? Timing and Uncertainty General population Undifferentiated arthritis Chronic, destructive polyarthritis Slowly progressive Rapidly progressive Window of Opportunity hypothesis • Concept of time not a biological basis • Criteria discussion leads to nosology – better to stick to probabilities • Biology of probabilities – masterswitch Tom Huizinga. Personal data Lessons from Leiden Early Arthritis Cohort Since 1993 2400 patients included with > two year follow-up Diagnosis at inclusion 800 undifferentiated arthritis 40 % remission 40 % RA 900 RA 700 other diagnosis Prediction Rule for Development of RA 1. What is the age? 2. What is the gender? 3. How is the distribution of involved joints? Multiply with 0.02 In case female In case small joints hands or feet: In case symmetric In case upper extremities Or: In case upper & lower extremities 4. What is the length of the morning stiffness (minutes)? In case 30–59 minutes In case ≥60 minutes 5. What is the number of tender joints? In case 4–10 In case 11 or higher 6. What is the number of swollen joints? In case 4–10 In case 11 or more 7. What is the C-reactive protein level (mg/L)? In case 5–50 In case 51 or higher 8. Is the rheumatoid factor positive? If yes 9. Are the anti-CCP antibodies positive? If yes 1 point ________ 0.5 point 0.5 point 1 point 1.5 points ________ ________ ________ ________ 0.5 point 1 point ________ ________ 0.5 point 1 point ________ ________ 0.5 point 1 point ________ ________ 0.5 point 1.5 points 1 point 2 points ________ ________ ________ ________ TOTAL SCORE: van der Helm-van Mil AH, et al. Arthritis Rheum 2008;58:2241–7 ________ Predicted Risk on RA vs Prediction Score AUC 0.84 0.88 Replicated in UK, Norway, Germany, Japan, Middle east and Latin America AUC=area under the curve; van der Helm-van Mil AH, et al. Arthritis Rheum 2008;58:2241–7 Prediction Thinking is Now Implemented in the 2010 Criteria 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. ACR 1987 criteria1 ACR/EULAR 2010 criteria2 Morning stiffness Arthritis of 3 or more joint areas Arthritis of hand joints Symmetric arthritis Rheumatoid nodules Serum rheumatoid factor Radiographic changes 1. Joint involvement 3. Acute phase reactants – 1 medium-large joint (0) – Normal CRP and normal – 2–10 medium-large joints ESR (0) – 1–3 small joints (large joints not counted) (2) – Abnormal CRP or – 4–10 small joints (large joints not counted (3) abnormal ESR (1) – >10 joints (at least one small joint) (5) 2. Serology 4. Duration of symptoms – Negative RF and negative ACPA (0) – <6 weeks (0) – Low positive RF or now positive ACPA (2) – ≥6 weeks (1) – High positive RF or high positive ACPA (3) Four of these 7 criteria must be present. Criteria 1 through 4 must have been present for at least 6 weeks Points are shown in parenthesis. Cut point for RA ≥6 points. Patients are also classified as having RA if they have (a) typical erosions; (b) long-standing disease previously satisfying the classification criteria Early Arthritis Prediction 2007-van der Helm3 1. Age (multiply by 0.02) 2. Gender (female 1) 3. Distribution of involved joints – Small joints hands and feet (0.5) – Symmetric (0.5) – Upper extremities (1) or upper and lower extremities (1.5) 4. VAS morning stiffness – 26–90 mm (1) – 90 mm (2) 5. Number of tender joints – 4–10 (0.5) – 11 or more (1) 6. Number of swollen joints – 4–10 (0.5) – 11 or more (1) 7. C-reactive protein (mg/L) – 5–50 (0.5) – 51 or more (1.5) 8. Rheumatoid factor positive (1) 9. Anti-CCP antibodies positive (2) Points are shown in parenthesis. Cut point for RA ≥8 points 1. Arnett FC, et al. Arthritis Rheum 1988;31:315-24; 2. New ACR/EULAR diagnostic criteria. Presented at ACR, Philadelphia, 10–16th October 2009; 3. van der Helm-van Mil AHM, et al. Arthritis & Rheum 2007:56;433–440 A more sensitive tool for identifying early arthritis patients (n=2258 Leiden Early Arthritis Patients) 2010 ACR/EULAR Classification Criteria RA at baseline no RA at baseline 1987 ACR Classification Criteria RA at baseline 644 82 no RA at baseline 455 1077 Total 1099 1159 Earlier detection of RA 297 patients fulfilled the 1987 ACR criteria during the first year, but not at baseline 202 (68.0%) however did fulfill the 2010 criteria at baseline RA patients classified in an earlier phase of the disease Performance in early arthritis Outcome Measure MTX-initiation Criteria Set Sens. Spec. AUC DMARD-initiation 5-year Persistency Sens. Spec. AUC Sens. Spec. AUC 1987 ACR Classification Criteria 0.61 0.74 0.67 0.54 0.87 0.71 0.53 0.75 0.61 2010 ACR/EULAR Classification Criteria 0.84 0.60 0.72 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.71 0.65 0.65 Overview of seminar • • RA as a disease versus syndrome - perspective from a disease - perspective from a syndrome Treatment and being quantitative - early treatment: biology & observational - treatment focussed at a target - is there any difference in the way a target is defined? ACPA characteristics :a biomarker of the window of opportunity Few isotypes limited epitope recognition only low avidities Population Many isotypes No changes ACPA extensive epitope in ACPA recognition characteristics high and low avidities Undifferentiated Artritis Reumatoide Artritis The developing autoimmune response associates with worse prognosis Results pre-RA versus RA 2 Number of epitopes recognized by sera from: pre-RA RA None ≥ 1 peptide Recognition of ≥ 1 peptide: Vimentin peptide A 38% Vimentin peptide B 66% Fibrinogen peptide A Fibrinogen peptide B p=0.013 Enolase peptide Number of epitopes recognized increase from pre-RA to RA Median number of peptides recognized over time ACPA characteristics :a biomarker of the window of opportunity Few isotypes limited epitope recognition only low avidities Population Many isotypes No changes ACPA extensive epitope in ACPA recognition characteristics high and low avidities Undifferentiated Artritis Reumatoide Artritis What is the relevance of this developing autoimmune response during early artritis? A broader isotype usage is associated with Radiographic progression EAC * comparison ≤4 isotypes versus ≥5 isotypes: p<0.05 A broader isotype usage is associated with Radiographic progression EURIDISS * comparison ≤4 isotypes versus ≥5 isotypes: p<0.05 Aim of early treatment • • • • To prevent functional disability To prevent structural damage To prevent comorbidity (cardiovascular disease, amyloidosis) To prevent “MasterSwitches” turned on that induce chronicity Time is important RA-only Delay < 12 weeks associates with: lower rate of joint destruction* higher chance of DMARD-free remission* Conclusion: Delay should be diminished Why Recommendation 1: Window of Opportunity General population Undifferentiated arthritis Chronic, destructive polyarthritis Window of Opportunity hypothesis: - Criteria discussion: probabilities. - Biology of probabilities: masterswitch - ACPA only know marker of this process Slowly progressive Rapidly progressive Overview of seminar • • RA as a disease versus syndrome - perspective from a disease - perspective from a syndrome Treatment and being quantitative - early treatment: biology & observational - treatment focussed at a target - is there any difference in the way a target is defined? Importance of patient monitoring: evidence from RCT • TICORA1 – Intensive: monthly, DAS guided – Routine: every 3 months – Remission: 65% (intensive) vs. 16% (routine) • CAMERA2 – Intensive: monthly, computer program – Routine: every 3 months usual care rheumatologist – Remission: 50% (intensive) vs. 37% (routine) 1.Grigor et al. Lancet 2004; 364: 263–269 2.Verstappen et al. Ann Rheum Dis 2007; 66: 1443–1449 Importance of patient monitoring: evidence from longitudinal patient cohorts • Early Arthritis Cohort Leiden – Patients treated from ’93–’95 with Pyramid strategy – Patients treated from ’95–’98 with DMARD within two weeks Comparison after 4 years EAC Survival curves of RA patients and the general Dutch population Delayed treatment Survival probability 1.0 1993–1995 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0 2 4 6 8 Years after inclusion 10 12 14 Early Arthritis Cohort Leiden Survival curves of RA patients and the general Dutch population Early treatment Survival probability 1.0 1996–1998 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0 2 4 6 8 Years after inclusion 10 12 14 Early Arthritis Cohort Leiden Survival curves of RA patients and the general Dutch population Early, aggressive treatment, goal-driven Survival probability 1.0 1999–2006 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0 2 4 6 8 Years after inclusion 10 12 14 Early Arthritis Cohort Leiden RA management today • Remission – Clinical – Radiographic • Low disease activity Goals “Remission” Processes “More & Better” • Early treatment is key • Aggressive therapy approach with better results • Disease activity measurement (e.g. DAS28) Tools “More & Better” • More conventional DMARDs • Biologics available as highly effective alternatives Overview of seminar • • RA as a disease versus syndrome - perspective from a disease - perspective from a syndrome Treatment and being quantitative - early treatment: biology & observational - treatment focussed at a target - is there any difference in the way a target is defined? Perspective : ?Biology?-?Swollen joint etc.?-?Function? Biomarker-based DAS Gene Expression Proprietary Molecular Profiling Data 1416 genes with secreted proteins profiled in 424 RA patients Protein Arrays 180 proteins profiled in 410 patients Manual Survey of Scientific Publications Literature Review Hundreds of scientific articles and posters IRIDESCENT Bioinformatics Knowledge bases Academic database of relationships from abstracts Ingenuity Commercial database of curated scientific facts 396 Candidate Markers Review evidence and prioritize Identify Assays: Analysis of Multiple Platforms Optimize Assays: Dilutions RF Blocking QC metrics Shen et al. Stepwise discovery of disease activity biomarkers in rheumatoid arthritis. EULAR 2010; Poster # THU0066 42 Pre-Analytic Validity: Results Individual Markers Biomarker Avg. % Difference “OTC” vs. “Fresh” ` -1 0.97 VEGF 121 0.85 0.97 YKL-40 80 0.87 779 0.05 COMP 1 1.00 IL6-R 0 0.56 ICAM-3 59 0.74 IL-8 83383 0.01 ICTP -7 0.87 IL-B 2940 0.05 IL-2RA 24 0.91 Leptin -29 0.94 IP-10 10 0.98 MDC 0 0.91 MCSF 88 0.71 MMP-1 20 0.97 OPG 32 0.23 MMP-3 -1 0.97 RANKL 0 1.00 Resistin 230 0.74 THBD 10 0.96 SAA -4 1.00 TIMP-1 6 0.94 TNF-RI 16 0.97 Avg. % Difference “OTC” vs. “Fresh” R2 Conc. [log10 pg/mL] CRP 0 1.00 VCAM-1 EGF 1005 .58 -2 IL-6 Biomarker ICAM-1 Qureshi et al. Pre-Analytical Effects of Serum Collection and Handling in Quantitative Immunoassays for Rheumatoid Arthritis; ACR 2010; Poster #1606 Training: Vectra™ DA Algorithm • Includes 12 biomarkers and uses a formula similar to DAS28CRP • Different subsets and/or weightings of biomarkers are used to estimate SJC28, TJC28, and PG DAS28CRP=0.56√TJC + 0.28√SJC + 0.14PG + 0.36log(CRP+1) + 0.96 TJC=tender joint count; SJC=swollen joint count; PG =patient global health Vectra DA Score =(0.56√PTJC + 0.28√PSJC + 0.14PPG + 0.36log(CRP+1) + 0.96) * 10.53 +1 PT JC=predicted TJC, PSJC=predicted SJC, PPG =predicted PG TJC28 Biomarkers Used To Predict Each DAS Component YKL-40 SJC28 IL-6 Leptin SAA VEGF-A EGF VCAM-1 TNF-RI MMP-1 MMP-3 Resistin Patient Global CRP CRP Bakker et al. Development of a Multi-Biomarker Test for Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Disease Activity (Vectra™ DA). ACR 2010; Poster #1753 Vectra™ DA Validation (RF+ and/or Anti-CCP+): Patient Cohort Characteristics Parameter BRASS Leiden InFoRM Total n 87 77 66 230 Gender, % female 83 70 76 77 Median Age (IQR) 58 (48-69) 56 (45-65) 59 (50-66) 58 (48-66) RF-positive, % 95 91 94 93 CCP-positive, % 93 87 82 88 Median Tender Joint Count (IQR) 15 (4-22) 1 (0-6) 6 (0-21) 5 (0-18) Median Swollen Joint Count (IQR) 12 (5-17) 0 (0-4) 4 (0-11) 4 (0-12) Median CRP in mg/L (IQR) 7 (3-15) 7 (3-17) 6 (2-21) 7 (3-17) 47 (25-70) 34 (17-50) 45 (16-70) 42 (19-65) 5.5 (3.8-6.5) 2.7 (2.0-4.2) 4.2 (2.2-6.0) 4.1 (2.3-5.8) Mean Patient Global VAS (IQR) Median DAS28CRP (IQR) Curtis et al. Validation of a Multi-Biomarker Test for Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Disease Activity (Vectra™ DA) in a Multi-Cohort Study. ACR 2010; Poster #1782 Vectra™ DA Validation (RF+ and/or Anti-CCP+): Results • • Pearson Correlation = 0.56 The Vectra DA score was also associated with DAS28-CRP (p<0.05) within subgroups of RA patients who were <65 years of age, ≥65, male, female, overweight (body-mass index >25),not overweight, on anti-TNF medications, on methotrexate but not biologics and on steroids. Curtis et al. Validation of a Multi-Biomarker Test for Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Disease Activity (Vectra™ DA) in a Multi-Cohort Study. ACR 2010; Poster #1782; Data on file Crescendo Bioscience Vectra™ DA Validation (RF+ and/or Anti-CCP+): Ability to Detect Low Disease Activity • • The exploratory analysis shows that patients with low Vectra DA scores tended to have a higher likelihood of low joint counts than those with low CRP Although these results were not statistically significant, they do suggest that the Vectra DA score may more accurately detect low joint counts than CRP. Curtis et al. Validation of a Multi-Biomarker Test for Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Disease Activity (Vectra™ DA) in a Multi-Cohort Study. ACR 2010; Poster #1782 Vectra™ DA Validation (RF+ and/or Anti-CCP+): Biomarkers Other Than CRP • In a multivariate regression analysis of predictors of the DAS28CRP using the Vectra DA score (without CRP) and CRP as predictors, both the Vectra DA score (without CRP) and CRP were statistically significant (p<0.001) • Since the DAS28CRP includes CRP itself, a multivariate regression analysis was carried out to evaluate both CRP and the Vectra DA Score (without CRP) as predictors of the DAS28CRP with CRP removed – The Vectra DA score (without CRP) was statistically significant (p<0.001), and the CRP term was not significant (p=0.22). Curtis et al. Validation of a Multi-Biomarker Test for Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Disease Activity (Vectra™ DA) in a Multi-Cohort Study. ACR 2010; Poster #1782 BeSt Treatment Strategies in Rheumatoid Arthritis Predictors of HAQ response after 3 months of treatment with different strategies in recent onset active RA are different than predictors of rapid radiological progression BeSt trial Sequential monotherapy n=126 MTX monotherapy Step-up combination n=121 MTX monotherapy Initial combination with prednisone n=133 Initial combination with infliximab n=128 MTX + SSA + pred MTX + IFX Each strategy further treatment steps per 3 months if DAS >2.4 Predictors RRP Predictors Odds ratio 95% CI RF/ACPA both negative 1 positive both positive ref 2.5 4.0 1.01-6.1 1.9-8.5 Erosions ref 1.3 3.8 0.6-3.1 1.6-8.9 0 1-4 4 CRP mg/L <10 10-35 35 Therapy mono combi prednisone combi IFX ref 1.5 4.8 ref 0.2 0.1 0.7-3.2 2.3-9.7 0.1-0.4 0.1-0.3 Matrix: RRP after 1 year of treatment Initial monotherapy 10-35 <10 47 47 24 24 19 19 22 22 9 9 7 7 16 16 6 6 5 5 -/- 69 69 44 44 37 37 42 42 20 20 16 16 32 32 14 14 11 11 78 78 56 56 49 49 54 54 29 29 23 23 43 43 21 21 17 17 4 1-4 0 4 1-4 0 4 1-4 0 Risk of RRP (%) Erosions (number) CRP (mg/L) 35 <10 10-20 20-50 50 +/- or -/+ +/+ RF and ACPA Initial combination with prednisone 42 42 20 20 16 16 19 19 8 8 6 6 13 13 5 5 4 4 +/+ 4 1-4 0 4 1-4 0 4 1-4 0 35 CRP (mg/L) <10 30 30 13 13 10 10 12 12 5 5 4 4 8 8 3 3 2 2 +/- or -/+ RF and ACPA 10-35 <10 11 11 44 3 3 4 4 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 -/- 24 24 10 10 8 8 9 9 3 3 3 3 6 6 2 2 2 2 +/- or -/+ RF and ACPA 34 34 15 15 12 12 14 14 6 6 4 4 10 10 3 3 3 3 +/+ 4 1-4 0 4 1-4 0 4 1-4 0 Erosions (number) 10-35 15 15 66 4 4 5 5 2 2 1 1 4 4 1 1 1 1 -/- Erosions (number) CRP (mg/L) 35 Initial combination with IFX Predictors HAQ >=1 Baseline predictors OR (95% CI) Initial treatment mono combo prednisone combo infliximab ref 0.3 (0.2 - 0.5) 0.4 (0.2 - 0.6) HAQ < 1.4 1.4 - 2.0 > 2.0 ref 2.6 (1.6 - 4.2) 5.3 (2.9 - 9.5) VAS pain (tertiles) < 40 40 - 60 > 60 ref 2.2 (1.3 - 3.8) 2.7 (1.4 - 5.1) RAI (tertiles) < 10 10 -16 > 16 ref 1.7 (1.02 - 3.0) 2.7 (1.5 - 4.7) Matrix: predicted risk HAQ ≥ 1 after 3 months Monotherapy 1.4 - 2 < 1.4 73 86 88 >16 64 80 83 10-16 51 70 74 <10 58 75 79 >16 47 66 70 10-16 34 53 58 <10 34 53 58 >16 25 43 48 10-16 16 30 35 <10 < 40 40-60 >60 High risk Intermediate risk RAI HAQ >2 Lower risk Low risk VAS pain Combo with prednisone 1.4 - 2 <1.4 45 64 69 50 68 73 >16 35 54 59 39 58 63 10-16 23 40 45 27 45 50 <10 29 47 52 25 46 51 >16 21 37 41 24 41 46 10-16 13 25 29 15 29 33 <10 14 25 29 16 29 33 >16 9 18 21 11 21 25 10-16 5 11 14 7 13 16 <10 < 40 40-60 >60 < 40 40-60 >60 VAS pain RAI HAQ >2 Combo with infliximab Differences RRP and HAQ model • Of all 508 patients in the BeSt, 12% had a HAQ ≥ 1 after three months of treatment as well as RRP after one year. • Thus, it seems that short-term functional ability and radiological damage progression are different concepts. • The choice of the best initial treatment is dependent on the relevance of the respective outcome measures for an individual patient. Which target is relevant for which patient? Relevance of CCP-test Patient develops symptoms GP refers patient to Rheumatologist Patient visits GP DELAY has a price (less remission, more destruction, more suffering) Guidance of treatment possible by prediction based on serum-based Measure disease activity measurments or activity measurements focussed at prevention of damage versus function