Download Liz Kent

CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM ETCCDI Workshop
De Bilt
13-15 May 2008
Climate Indices from Marine Data
Workshop illustrates that most studies focus on land T and P:
need for marine indices
Elizabeth Kent - National Oceanography Centre, Southampton
Val Swail - Environment Canada, Toronto
Scott Woodruff - NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder
David Parker - Met Office, Exeter
FOCI ANTICIPATED FOR MARINE INDICES
• detection and attribution of climate change
• impact on marine industries (fishing, shipping, oil and
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
gas production, tourism)
sea-level change
marine hazards (extreme winds and waves, harmful algal
blooms, pollution)
changes in hydrological cycle
changes in ocean circulation
changes in sea ice and ice bergs
effects on coastal communities
ocean acidification
MARINE DATA SOURCES AND PROGRAMS
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
ICOADS – ships (from 1662), moored and drifting buoys
World Ocean Database (WOD)
Global Digital Sea Ice Data Bank (GDSIDB)
Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL)
Derived data sets – HadISST, HadSLP, HadGOA (www.hadobs.org )
Satellite – SST, wind, wave, ice, sea level
Reanalyses
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Ship Observations Team
Data Buoy Cooperation Panel
Argo
Ocean Sites
Global Sea Level Observing System
International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project
Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Program
JCOMMOPS (www.jcommops.org )
Integrated Ocean Observing System
Ship observations
ASAP
Drifting buoy
Argo
Sea level
Moorings
Annual numbers of marine reports in ICOADS,
stratified by platform type for 1936 to 2005
(Woodruff et al. 2008)
ICOADS Sampling by Parameter
Perspective on Historical Data
•
JCOMM Expert Team on Marine Climatology links
with International Comprehensive OceanAtmosphere Data Set (ICOADS)
•
Recovery of more data & metadata: key to improving
past climatologies, e.g. Recovery of Logbooks And
International Marine data (RECLAIM)
Improvements to ICOADS
• Many new data sources added to
ICOADS focused on data sparse
regions and periods.
ICOADS Improvements in 1930s
The potential for marine indices
Operational
Resources
required
Large scale pressure
(e.g. NAO, PNA)
Large scale
temperature (e.g
ENSO)
Sea Ice parameters
Temperature indices
Ocean heat content
Sea level
Marine winds and
pressures
Waves
Research
required
Atlantic Meridional
Circulation
Currents
Max & min
temperatures
Wind gusts
Polar lows.
Storm surges
Hydrographic time
series (e.g. ICES)
Salinity measures
Fisheries
information &
biology
Ocean transports and Ocean chemistry
water mass
(e.g. dissolved
properties
oxygen)
Hurricanes
Deep convection
Clouds, humidity.
Data required
Extremes
Precipitation
Ph/Ocean
Acidification
Temperature trend over 1901-2003
Monthly Surface Temperature Sept. 2006
Anomalies
Percentiles
Tropical Central and EastPacific SST Anomalies, 1850-2005
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
12
Global Wave Climatology Atlas
S. Caires, G. Komen, A. Sterl, V. Swail
www.knmi.nl/waveatlas
Monthly mean wind speed
Monthly mean sig. wave height
1966
Number of gridpoints
Number of gridpoints
1966
Year of changepoint
Year of changepoint
Number of gridpoints of a significant changepoint in the indicated year
Wind speed – locations of changepoint in Nov. 1966
Sig. wave height – location of changepoint in Nov. 1966
x
x
Grid-boxes of significant changepoint are shown in black
MSC50 Wind and Wave reanalysis 1954-2007
Annual sea-ice extent changes, 1973-2006 (updated from
IPCC, 2001)
Antarctic sea-ice
Not declining since 1976
Arctic sea ice
Retreating until late1990s.
Little retreat 1998-2003
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
15
Background: ocean heat uptake
Heat content for Anomaly for the upper 300m
See Gregory et al. [2004]
© Crown copyright
Changes in mean T and isotherm depths
 Deepening of isotherms in
N. Atlantic associated with
change in phase of NAO.
Mean 14C isotherm depth
 Large areas of slight shoaling
and smaller areas of large
deepening
1985-2004 minus 1961-1980
 Wide-spread warming signal.
 Less prone to aliasing from
changes in ocean circulation
than z-levels.
Mean T above 14C isotherm
© Crown copyright
 Greater insight into underlying
physical mechanisms
Enabling Mechanisms
ICOADS - Critical and critically under-resourced
Proposed new initiative for value-added ICOADS (QC, bias corrections, etc.)
JCOMM Expert Teams
Wind Waves and Storm Surges
Sea Ice
Marine Climatology
Task Team on the Marine-meteorological and Oceanographic
Summaries (TT-MOCS)
Task Team on Delayed-Mode VOS (TT-DMVOS)
Engage expertise within the CLIMAR community to assist in the
development and production of marine indices
(marineclimatology.net)
Liaise with other groups interested in marine indices such as the AOPC and OOPC
Prediction of changes in the ocean is vital for prediction
of extremes over the land.
Marine focus has been on the creation of high quality
gridded data sets with uncertainty estimates
Many similar issues to land
inhomogeneity
sampling
Many variables of interest – and multivariate analyses
Difficult to calculate high-percentile extremes due to
data uncertainty.