Download tailored climate indexes

Tailored climate indices for DRR
(infrastructure)
Elena Akentyeva
Main Geophysical Observatory,
ST. PETERSBURG, RF
Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO) is a scientific unit of Roshydromet
that researches impacts of climate change on infrastructure including
energy sector, transport, oil and gas pipelines, and building construction.
Costs and benefits of adaptation options are estimated on the basis of
risk assessment and probabilities.
СПАСИБО
The effort is directed to quantify physical impacts of climate change for
above-mentioned sectors. MGO fulfills this research for a long period in
collaboration with end users.
As a result the systems of tailored climate products or impact indexes
were created. Expected deviations of these indexes express change of
climate conditions and can be used when adaptation measures are
working out.
З А В Н И М А Н И Е!
Presented results include examples of general and tailored climate
indexes for infrastructure and their observed and expected changes.
These projected indexes were generated using the ensemble of 16
global climate models of IPCC as well as MGO regional climate model
(A2 scenario )
“The tree” of power industry and appropriate
general climate impact indexes
“The tree” of building construction and
«The tree» of climate resources for building construction
appropriate general climate impact indexes
Building durability
(Number of days with thaws and frosts,
annual and diurnal run of air temperature
and humidity)
Heating
(heating period duration and air
temperature, radiation balance
Heating, ventilation,
of windows and walls)
air conditioning systems
Specific
(Air temperature, enthalpy
projecting
moisture quantiles)
Building heat
regime
Protecting constructions
(Coldest day and five days air
temperature 0,98 and 0,92 quantiles,
number of degree days)
Construction works
(wind speed > 10 m/s by subzero
air temperature, gust speed > 12 и >15 m/s)
Air temperature impact
(Mean monthly air temperature
in January and July, air
temperature quantiles)
Loads and impacts
Architectural planning
(Reidat diagram, “penetrating”
rains, prevalent wind direction)
Building location
(Solar radiance duration, wind speed “rose,
microclimate air temperature map)
Ice load
(Ice loads quantiles)
Snow loads
(snow cover thickness
quantiles)
Wind load
(squared wind speed quantiles,
air density, gust parameters)
“The tree” of health protection and appropriate
climate impact indexes
Climate and Energy (tailored climate indexes)
Climate and Building (tailored climate indexes)
Tailored climate indices included in Building codes
(examples):
Climate indices of the cold period:
•Air temperature of the coldest 5 days and twenty-four hours 92th and 98th
percentiles;
•Daily temperature range in the coldest month, 0С;
•Annual count of days when the mean daily temperature < 0, 8, 10 0С; mean
air temperature of these periods;
•Average relative humidity at 3 pm in the coldest month, %;
•Annual precipitation sums (separately liquid, solid, mixed) in cold period
(November-March), mm;
•Wind speed 80th percentiles in the heating period, m/s;
•Annual count of days with wind speed more than 10 m/s in subsero weather
Climate indices of warm period:
• Long-term average of station pressure;
•Daily air temperature 99th, 98th , 96th , 95th percentiles;
•Long-term average of annual daily maximal air temperature, 0С;
•Absolute maximal air temperature, 0С;
•Daily temperature range in the hottest month, 0С;
•Average relative humidity in the hottest month, %;
•Average relative humidity at 3 pm in the hottest month, %;
•Annual precipitation sums (separately (separately liquid, solid, mixed) in
warm period (April-Oktober), mm;
• Maximum one-day rainfall, mm;
Tailored climate indexes for separating of homogeneous
climate regions (building zoning):
•Long-term average of absolute annual minimal air
temperature, 0С;
•Long-term average of absolute annual maximal air
temperature, 0С;
•Coldest and hottest month averages, 0С;
•Average wind speed of three cold months, m/s;
•Average relative humidity at 1 pm in the hottest month, %
PROJECTED CHANGES OF THE COLDEST 24-HOUR PERIOD
TEMPERATURE BY 2015 (0С)
The coldest 24hour temperature
92th percentile
1960-2000 (A);
2090-2100 (B)
Probable increase of periods with air temperature
higher than +250С (days) by 2015
PROJECTED REDUCTION OF THE HEATING PERIOD
DURATION OVER TERRITORY OF RUSSIA BY 2015 (days)
River flow and hydropower resources
RIVER BASIN,
REGION
PROJECTED CHANGES
OF THE RIVER FLOW
BY MID-21ST CENTURY
(%)
PROJECTED CHANGES OF
THE TOTAL HYDROPOWER
RESURSES BY MID-21ST
CENTURY (%)
The Yenisei
10 + 6
4+2
The Lena
17+ 7
7+ 3
The Chukchi
Peninsula
15 + 8
Western Siberia
11+ 4
4+2
Eastern Siberia
14+ 5
5+2
RF
11+ 3
4+1
6+3
PROJECTED CHANGES OF THE TOTAL HYDROPOWER RESURSES
BY MID-21ST CENTURY (%)
Tailored climate indices for over–normative loads estimation
Risk assessment of dangerous weather events and
climate anomalies for oil and gas industry (example)
Complex:
Dangerous
weather
Thunder
event and
storm
climate
anomaly
Wind
speed
>
20
m/c
Air
temperature
<
– 300С
Air
temperature
<
– 400С
Wind speed
> 15 m/с, > 22 m/с,
Whirl
> 35 m/с;
wind
air temperature
< -250С, < - 300С,
< – 400С
Fuzzy set method
Risk
3*10-5
10-5
2*10-5
10-6
10-7
High weather and
climate related risk
(with confidence 0,48);
Medium weather and
climate related risk;
(with confidence 0,52)
Projected changes of
annual count of days with
icing hazard
(complex: air temperature
from +2 to - 30С,
precipitation day) by
2046-2065 relative to
1981-2000 (days)
СПАСИБО
З А В Н И М А Н И Е!
Conclusion
Tailored climate indices for DRR in infrastructure include:
 Daily temperature, precipitation, wind speed values more (less) than
specific percentiles (e.g. 92, 98, 99,9 etc)
СПАСИБО
 Exceedance probability of threshold values of temperature, precipitation,
wind speed, humidity (e.g. daily temperature: + 25, 30, 35, 400C, daily
precipitation sum: 30, 50 mm etc. )
 Conditional and two-dimensional probabilities of specific temperaturehumidity and wind-temperature complexes
З А В Н И М А Н И Е!
 Temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity values more (less) than
specific percentiles for non-standard time periods (e.g. work hours)
 Complex climate indexes that include parameters of specific objects
(effective temperature, equivalent wind speed
Thank you
for your attention!
СПАСИБО
З А В Н И М А Н И Е!