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COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
Clive Bowman
Clim-ATIC project coordinator
UHI Science Day Pickaquoy Centre, Kirkwall, Friday 5th September 2008
www.clim-atic.org
A Project part-financed by the European Union and the
European Regional Development Fund
www.live-the-solution.com
Causes of climate change
*
* IPCC 2007 “It is very likely that greenhouse gas forcing has been the dominant cause of the
observed warming of globally averaged temperatures in the last 50 years”
Fossil fuels used in transport
Domestic activities
Industry and manufacturing
Land management
Scottish Green House Gas Emissions
Land use change
and Forestry
emissions 8%
Public
2% Waste 1%
Residential 11%
Energy 37%
Agricultural
12%
Business 12%
Transport 17%
Contribution of each sector to Scottish GHG Emissions of
GHGs in 2003
Scotland Rural Development Programme 2007 - 2013: Strategic
Environmental Assessment - Environmental Report
Its already happening!
“Climate change is evident in Scotland from observed
trends in temperature, rainfall and snow cover.”
And its going to get worse!
“Much of the change in climate over the next 30 to 40
years is already determined by past and present
emissions, so it is important that Scotland prepares itself
for the inevitable impacts.”
SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006
average spring,
summer and winter
temperatures have
risen by more than 1°C
since 1961
Change in mean temperature (°C) based on a
linear trend, 1961–2004
SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006
UK top 10
warmest years
Year
(°C)
Difference
from
average with
respect to
1971-2000
1998
+0.52
2005
+0.48
2003
+0.46
2002
+0.46
2004
+0.43
2006
+0.42
2007 (Jan-Nov)
+0.41
2001
+0.40
1997
+0.36
1995
+0.28
Source: Met Office Hadley Centre and UEA Climatic Research Unit 2007
Some parts of
north-west Scotland
have become up to
45% drier in summer
Scotland has become much wetter since 1961 with:
• an increase in average winter precipitation of almost 60% in the north and
west;
• an increase in average annual precipitation of 20% for the whole country.
Change in precipitation (%) based on a linear trend, 1961–2004C5
SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006
high winter flow
frequencies
on western source
rivers have
increased
over the past two
decades
Changes in winter river flows at selected
locations
SEPA’s State of the Environment Report
2006
Summary characteristics of the 4 IPCC storylines
Profile
A1
A2
B1
B1
B2
B2
Population
growth
low
high
low
medium
GDP growth
very high
medium
high
medium
Energy use
very high
high
low
medium
Land- use
changes
low
medium/high
high
medium
Resource
availability
medium
low
low
medium
rapid
slow
medium
medium
F fossil
T non fossil
B balanced
regional
efficiency &
dematerialization
“dynamics as
usual”
Pace of
technological
change
Change
favouring
CO2 EMISSION PROFILES under IPCC scenarios
The IS92a scenario used by the IPCC is the business as usual scenario
Global mean annual temperature changes
relative to 1980 – 1999 (ºC) for IPCC scenarios
5.2
5.8
www.live-the-solution.com
Vegetation of the Arctic: current conditions and projected changes under the
IS92a scenario for 2090-2100
Table of climate change impacts for Scotland taken from SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006
Aspect
Implications
Water
resource
More frequent and severe river flooding, affecting 77,000 properties
Increased likelihood of summer droughts leading to river water quality problems and disruption of water supply
Biodiversity
Changes in abundance and distribution of species and length of growing season
Higher temperatures less favourable for native species
High intensity rainfall causing destruction to river habitat & Increased erosion and siltation with consequences for fish
spawning
Disruption to food chain with potential catastrophic loss of species (e.g. island breeding sea bird populations)
Marine
Higher sea level, increased wave height leading to coastal erosion and loss of habitat & more frequent and coastal
flooding affecting 93,000 properties
Loss of traditional commercial fishery
Land surface
Drying out of soils combined with higher intensity storm events causing landslides, with potential disruption of transport
links
Accelerated decomposition of peaty soils resulting in increased emissions of carbon dioxide and methane, fuelling further
climate change
Increased soil loss through water and wind erosion
Changes to agricultural practice and crops (e.g. longer growing season)
Human health
Increased flood-related stress, illness and economic costs
Increased respiratory illness and heat-related distress
Fewer cold-related deaths
Water quality
Periods of reduced river flow providing less dilution for discharges with increased sewage treatment costs
Increased treatment costs to provide water supplies
Increased run-off impacting on bathing water quality
Air quality
Local and regional ozone air quality goals probably more difficult to achieve in the future
An increase in summertime photochemical smog, linked to increasing temperatures and small reductions in cloud cover
Likely that the frequency of wintertime air quality pollution events will reduce
Weather
The weather will become more erratic and therefore less predictable, with a greater likelihood of extreme events.
www.live-the-solution.com
Communities are on the front line!
How can they adapt?
The Clim-ATIC project
2.35 Million Euro
Understanding climate change
adaptation at a community level for
northern regions
European Regional Development Fund’s Northern Periphery Programme
2007 - 2013.
www.clim-atic.org
A Project part-financed by the European Union and
the European Regional Development Fund
5 participating regions in Clim-ATIC
Uummannaq
Rovaniemi,
Kittilä and Kolari,
Lapland
Illulissat
Iceland
County of
Vasterbotten, and Åre
Sisimiut
Flora, Sogn og
Fjordane
Faroe Islands
Glen Urquhart and the
Cairngorms National
Park
Adaptation to Climate change impacts
anticipatory or reactive?
The earlier we start adapting, the better equipped we will be to cope with
higher temperatures, increased rainfall and the other potential changes.
Adapting to climate change is a process. It needs to be built in to our
normal planning and risk management processes, whether in business,
government or community.
Having the ability to adapt is called ‘adaptive capacity’ and this is increased
through:
1. knowledge
2. experience
3. resources
Socio-economic
development
Changes in
natural systems
Climate Change
Impacts
Advantages
Mitigation
Disadvantages
Adaptive capacity
Opportunities
Adaptation
Threats
Decision making
Diagram adapted from Finland’s National Adaptation Strategy (2005)
Build community capacity through knowledge with communities
Rovaniemi
Ilulissat
Cairngorms
National Park
Flora
Sogn og
Fjordane
Lycksele
Glen
Urquhart
Culture and
Fishing
Natural
Risk
County Plan for
Tourism
Land use
traditions
Tourism
heritage
management
Climate and
Reindeer
management
Flooding
Sustainable
Land use
Sea level rise
Energy
herding
Sustainable
Tourism
transport
management
Health
Forestry
flood risk
Snow activities
Sustainable
Agriculture
Energy
Agriculture
management
energy
Tourism
management
Transportation
Agriculture
management
Biodiversity
Business
Energy
New
development
systems
development
Snow cover
Tourism
Flooding
Knowledge sources
climate models and data + socio-economic data + local knowledge
Current
climate
Current
society
Future
climate
change
scenarios
Future
social
change
scenarios
Community
Vulnerability
Scenarios
Knowledge communication and use
Climate change
impact visualisations
Community / stakeholder
brainstorming meetings
Community adaptation
action plans
Building adaptation knowledge with communities
11 to 18 year olds in the Cairngorms National Park
Forest owners in Sweden
Tourism operators in Rovaniemi, Finland
Landowners and farmers in Glen Urquhart
Ski area businesses in Åre, Sweden
Building community capacity through experience
sustainable
transport
sustainable
energy
management
New tourism
opportunities
Finland
Greenland
tourism
opportunities
Dog sledging on
thin ice!
Climate change
tourism and
sustainable huts
Norway
Scotland
Trial of EV for
community use
Tourism
opportunities and
ski area adaptation
Sweden
Winter tourism and sustainable
transport project - partnership of ski
industry and LA
risk
management
and response
GIS flood mapping
for development
planning
Fish waste to Biogas
Impacts on energy
supply
infrastructure
Land slides and
public warning
system
Wood fuel
cooperative – local
business and
suppliers
River restoration
project sustainable flood
management
Woodland owners
management plans
Adaptation demonstration projects
Dog sledge adaptations in Greenland
Mapping the tourism products of
Northern Finland
Fish waste to Bio-gas in Greenland
Climate change tourism and sustainable
accommodation huts in Greenland
Risk and response management in Norway
Tourism destination management in Scotland
GIS-based flood hazard maps - Rovaniemi, Finland
River restoration river Enrick, Glen Urquhart
Trial of EV for community use
The Clim-ATIC project
www.clim-atic.org
www.clim-atic.org
A Project part-financed by the European Union and the
European Regional Development Fund