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Fiscal Policy Chapter 11 Discretionary Fiscal Policy (active): • Tax or spending changes that are enacted by choice • Example: 2007 stimulus checks and the 2001 tax cuts (income, estate, and gift) Expansionary Fiscal Policy • Tax or spending changes that are intended to increase Aggregate Demand • Tax cuts, spending increases, or both Fiscal Policy Chapter 11 (cont.) Contractionary Fiscal Policy • Tax or spending changes that are intended to decrease Aggregate Demand • Tax increase, spending decrease, or both Fiscal policy is a source of a great deal of political strife • Traditionally Republicans have advocated tax cuts while Democrats have supported spending increases • This clear distinction has changed in recent times Fiscal Policy Chapter 11 (cont.) Non-Discretionary Fiscal Policy • A.K.A.—Passive, built-in, or automatic stabilizers • These are taxes or spending that automatically change depending on the economy • Progressive tax system • Transfer payments—unemployment payments, welfare Fiscal Policy Chapter 11 (cont.) Various types of tax • Progressive, average tax increases as income rises—ex. Tax brackets (our income tax system) • Proportional, average tax is the same at all income levels—ex. Flat income tax • Regressive, average tax decreases as income rises—ex. $1 tax on a pack of cigarettes Problems With Fiscal Policy Timing: • Recognition Lag—The it takes for policy makers to realize economic problems • Administrative Lag—The time it takes to decide on a particular policy • Operational Lag—The time it takes for a given policy to impact the economy Changes in taxes are typically faster than spending changes Problems With Fiscal Policy (cont.) Political considerations: • Fiscal policy can be used for the wrong reasons Crowding-Out Effect: • When the government borrows $ for increased spending, resulting in higher interest rates that slow Investment Demand • This may blunt the increase in AD that was intended You’re the Politician What should you do if we are in a recession or if we are having high inflation?: • Recession Cut taxes Increase spending • Inflation Increase taxes Decrease spending But by how much? Fixing The Problem Using the “3 Amigos” (∆ in spending) (Multiplier) = ∆ in GDP LRAS PL SRAS1 1. MPC=.8 2. PL1 3. AD1 Y1 650B Yfe 900B RGDP Determine if we are in a recession or if we are having inflation Determine if you should use expansionary or contractionary fiscal policy Determine the size of the GDP gap (∆ in spending) (5) = 250B LRAS PL SRAS1 MPC=.8 PL1 AD1 Y1 650B Yfe 900B RGDP 4. Fill in what you know ∆ in spending = 50B LRAS PL SRAS1 MPC=.8 PL1 AD1 Y1 650B Yfe 900B RGDP 5. Solve ∆ in spending = 50B LRAS PL SRAS1 MPC=.8 50B PL1 AD2 AD1 Y1 650B Yfe 900B RGDP AD will shift by the initial change in spending and eventually reach the full employment level of output due to the multiplier How about using a tax change? (∆ in tax) (tax multiplier) = ∆ in GDP LRAS PL SRAS1 MPC=.8 PL1 AD1 Y1 650B Yfe 900B RGDP 1. Fill in what you know (∆ in tax) (4) = 250B LRAS PL SRAS1 MPC=.8 PL1 AD1 Y1 650B Yfe 900B RGDP 1. Solve ∆ in tax = 62.5B LRAS PL SRAS1 MPC=.8 62.5B PL1 AD2 AD1 Y1 650B Yfe 900B RGDP AD will shift by the initial change in tax and eventually reach the full employment level of output due to the multiplier •Fix the problem using the components of Aggregate Demand •Remember that: •AD=C+I+G+Xn •C = a + b Yd Where C= consumption a= autonomous spending b= Marginal Propensity to Consume Yd= Disposable Income •Equilibrium is found where AD=Yd Find the equilibrium level of production when: AD = 50 + .8 Yd + 75 + 22 + 5 C I G Xn AD = (50 + .8 Yd) + 75 + 22 + 5 C I G Xn AD = (50 + .8 Yd) + 75 + 22 + 5 Yd = .8 Yd + 152 .2Yd = 152 Yd = 760 -Now draw a AD/AS graph with a full employment level of production that equals1100 -What is the problem? -What is the size of the initial gap? -Fix the problem using a spending change. -Now fix the problem using a tax change. -Finally, fix 20% of the problem using a spending change and 80% using a tax change Answers to policy questions are in bold: --Problem= recession --The gap is the difference between the equilibrium level of GDP and the full-employment level of GDP: 1100-760=340 GDP Gap= 340 --(∆ spend) (5) = 340 Increase spending by 68 --(∆ tax) (4) = 340 Decrease tax by 85 --Combination Take 20% of 340 to find how much of the gap needs to be changed using the spending increase: .2 x 340 = 68 (∆ spend) (5) = 68 20% spending increase = 13.6 Take 80% of 340 to find how much of the gap needs to be changed using a tax decrease: .8 x 340 = 272 (∆ tax) (4) = 272 80% tax cut = 68