Download Presentation pack - The Global Calculator

The Global
Calculator
The Global Calculator
www.globalcalculator.org
How to use this pack
The Global
Calculator
This slide pack is designed so that you can select slides to
build your own presentation that will suit your interests, your
audience and the time you have available.
The Global Calculator team recommend demonstrating the
tool live as part of your presentation, so that you can show
how it works, show the key messages from our report, and
get the audience debating different options. You can
download example speaking notes from
www.globalcalculator.org to help you do this.
However, we have included slides that summarise how the
tool works and the key messages in case you are unable to
demonstrate the tool live.
Contents
The Global
Calculator
This slide pack is split into different sections to help you
build your presentation. The sections are:
• Context (slide 4)
• Introducing the Global Calculator (slide 8)
• Demonstrating the Global Calculator tool (if you do not
have access to the online version) (slide 14)
• Key messages from the report “Prosperous living for the
world in 2050” (if you do not have access to the online
version) (slide 25)
• Project background (slide 44)
• How the model works (slide 52)
• Follow-up activities (slide 68)
The Global
Calculator
Context
What will the future look like?
The Global
Calculator
By 2050:
• the global population could rise from 7 billion to 10 billion
• the global economy is expected to triple in size
• energy demand could increase by around 70%
• food demand could rise by around 45%
This will significantly increase greenhouse gas emissions if
we do not take action.
What will our climate be like?
The Global
Calculator
If global emissions continue to rise rapidly this century:
•the global mean temperature could increase by 6°C in the
long term.
•sea levels could rise, changing coastlines worldwide
•precipitation patterns are likely to change so that dry parts
of the world will get drier and the rainy parts will get wetter
•fragile ecosystems will be put at risk
•some extreme weather events will be more common
•oceans will become more acidic, damaging marine life
These changes will put human lives and livelihoods at risk.
The cost of adapting and responding to climate change
could be huge.
What can we do?
The Global
Calculator
• The world’s governments have agreed that we should
limit climate change so that the world average
temperature increase is kept below 2°C
• Is this possible? What actions do we need to take?
To find out, a group of experts from around the world built
the Global Calculator.
The Global
Calculator
Introducing the Global Calculator
The Global Calculator
The Global
Calculator
A free and interactive tool
that helps you to understand
the link between our
lifestyles, the energy we use,
and the consequences for
our climate.
Available at www.globalcalculator.org
What is it?
The Global
Calculator
• The Global Calculator puts you in charge of the world’s
energy, land and food systems to 2050
• It includes the full range of possible scenarios for the
future, as determined by international experts
• It instantly works out the implications of your choices so
you can see the impact on people’s lifestyles, the energy
system and the climate
Three principles behind the tool
The Global
Calculator
1. Openness – an Excel-based tool which is fully published
and available free online
2. Collaboration – built by a global team with input from
hundreds of experts
3. Simplicity – modelling the world as simply as possible,
while still including all energy, emissions and a full range
of future scenarios
Developing “pathways”
The Global
Calculator
• Build your own pathway to 2050 that reaches the 2°C
target by making choices using 40 “levers” that vary the
way we live in the future.
• Alternatively, explore pathways from businesses, NGOs
and research institutes, including:
Who can use the Global
Calculator?
The Global
Calculator
• Businesses – for long-term planning (e.g. the future of their
sector and which technologies to invest in) and to see the
impact they can have on emissions (e.g. improving efficiency)
• NGOs – informing long-term strategies and campaigns (e.g.
lobbying for technologies/changes that have the most impact)
• Governments – understanding what the 2°C target means,
and using benchmarks from the tool to align themselves with it
• Universities/schools – students can discover the impact of
mitigation options themselves.
The Global
Calculator
Demonstrating the Global
Calculator tool
How does it work?
Interactive
web interface
The Global
Calculator
How does it work?
40 “levers” to let
you vary the way
we live in the
future
The Global
Calculator
How does it work?
Graphs let you
explore the
impacts of your
choices
40 “levers” to let
you vary the way
we live in the
future
The Global
Calculator
How does it work?
Graphs let you
explore the
impacts of your
choices
40 “levers” to let
you vary the way
we live in the
future
Graph shows cumulative
emissions and thermometer
shows temperature change
The Global
Calculator
How does it work?
Graphs let you
explore the
impacts of your
choices
You can build your
own pathway using
the levers or select
from a list of
examples here
40 “levers” to let
you vary the way
we live in the
future
Graph shows cumulative
emissions and thermometer
shows temperature change
The Global
Calculator
The 2°C goal
The Global
Calculator
• The grey cumulative emissions graph
shows the total emissions out to 2100
based on your choices
• The red line shows what cumulative
emissions need to be for a 50% chance of
limiting climate change to 2°C and below.
• This can act as an indicative goal when
building a pathway – how would you
reduce emissions until the grey column
hits the red line?
The Global
Calculator
The “levers”
• Each lever relates to a type of action to reduce
emissions, e.g. building nuclear power stations or using
more public transport
• Each lever has four options – levels 1 to level 4 – which
the user selects. This represents the full range of what is
possible for this action up to 2050:
Level 1:
Level 2:
Level 3:
Level 4:
minimum abatement
effort
ambitious but
achievable
very ambitious but
achievable
extraordinarily
ambitious and
extreme
Increasing abatement effort
Example: nuclear power
Level 4:
Increasing abatement effort
1870 GW by 2050
Level 3:
1030 GW by 2050
Level 2:
685 GW by 2050
Level 1:
0 GW by 2050
The Global
Calculator
Example: travel mode (switch to
public transport)
Level 1:
65% of journeys by
car
Increasing abatement effort
Level 2:
53% of journeys by
car
Level 3:
43% of journeys by
car
Level 4:
29% of journeys by
car
The Global
Calculator
Outputs
The Global
Calculator
The Global Calculator lets you explore the impact of your
choices in detail:
• Overview – summary of energy and emissions
• Lifestyle – our homes, travel and diet
• Technology and fuels – how we power the world, and
how much fossil fuel resources we have left
• Land and food – how much land is used for forests and
food production
• Climate – maps showing temperature and precipitation
change, and ocean acidification
• Costs – the cost of the total energy system
The Global
Calculator
Key messages
A positive vision of the future
This report uses evidence from the
Global Calculator to show that:
1. The world could eat well, travel
more and live in more comfortable
homes and prevent dangerous
climate change
2. But to do so, we need to transform
the technologies and fuels we use
3. We also need to make smarter use
of our limited land resources and
expand forests by around 5-15% by
2050
The Global
Calculator
A positive vision of the future
Where did these findings come from?
The Global
Calculator
1. Take a business as usual
pathway
The Global
Calculator
The International Energy Agency’s 6DS is a version of
“business as usual” (BAU) for the world. It shows that by
2100, temperatures could rise between 2 and 6°C.
1. Take a business as usual
pathway
This is because
energy demand is
expected to increase
significantly in the
future, particularly
from manufacturing.
80% of this demand
will be met by burning
fossil fuels.
The Global
Calculator
1. Take a business as usual
pathway
The Global
Calculator
For example, electricity supply comes mostly from coal
(red), oil (blue) and gas (green):
2. Keep BAU improvements in
people’s lifestyles
The Global
Calculator
BAU predictions include significant improvements in world
average lifestyles, concentrated in the developing world.
2. Keep BAU improvements in
people’s lifestyles
For example, people will
live in bigger homes and
own more appliances.
The Global
Calculator
2. Keep BAU improvements in
people’s lifestyles
They will travel more, and
more of this travel will be
by car.
The Global
Calculator
2. Keep BAU improvements in
people’s lifestyles
People will eat
more food on
average per day,
including more
meat (UN FAO
projection).
The Global
Calculator
3. Change the technologies and
fuels we use
The Global
Calculator
To keep BAU improvements in world average lifestyle and
still meet the 2°C target, we must use more efficient
technologies and low-carbon sources of energy.
This require a massive and urgent effort across all sectors –
electricity, buildings, transport and manufacturing.
3. Change the technologies and
fuels we use
The Global
Calculator
The electricity sector must phase out unabated coal oil and
gas by 2050. For example:
3. Change the technologies and
fuels we use
The Global
Calculator
Vehicles will need to become much more efficient. And up
to 35% of cars will need to be electric- or hydrogen-powered
by 2050.
3. Change the technologies and
fuels we use
25 to 50% of homes will
need to heat their homes
using electric or zerocarbon sources by 2050.
Buildings will also need to
become much more
efficient, with significantly
more insulation.
The Global
Calculator
4. Make smarter use of our land
The Global
Calculator
We must protect and expand our forests globally by around
5 to 15% by 2050 because forests act as a valuable carbon
sink.
However, the world’s population is growing so will need
more food in the future, and we may use bioenergy crops as
well. This will put pressure on our limited land resources.
4. Make smarter use of our land
To remove this pressure
and allow forests to grow,
crop yields would need to
increase by 40 to 60% by
2050.
Livestock yields will also
need to increase, for
example by feeding more
cows with grain in enclosed
systems.
The Global
Calculator
4. Make smarter use of our land
Eating less meat on
average would also reduce
pressure on forests.
For example, if everyone
switched to the healthy diet
as recommended by the
World Health Organisation,
with only 160 g of meat per
day, this could save up to
15 GtCO2e per year by
2050.
That’s the same as 1/3 of
total global CO2 emissions
in 2011.
The Global
Calculator
How did we get our results?
The Global
Calculator
The report is based on four pathways built using the Global Calculator. These
are the common features of these pathways:
•
Lifestyle levers are set at the same level as the IEA 6DS business as usual
scenario (with the exception of the “consumer activism” pathway, in which
the levers “mode”, “occupancy & load”, “car own or hire”, “quantity of meat”,
“type of meat” and “product lifespan & demand” are altered).
•
All four pathways can be considered consistent with projected patterns of
economic development.
•
Population and urbanisation are set at the central UN projections (level 2).
•
Emissions after 2050 are set at around level 2.8 to allow continued
reductions toward zero.
•
No level 1 or 4s selected in order to avoid extremely ambitious or pessimistic
scenarios.
•
No use of speculative greenhouse gas removal (GGR) technologies as these
are unproven.
What is a “good lifestyle”
The Global
Calculator
We have defined a “good lifestyle” as:
•
World average lifestyle indicators around transport (e.g. how far people
travel) and homes (e.g. how comfortably heated/cooled they are and how
many appliances they have) continue to improve along a business as usual
pathway.
•
For diet, the world average food intake continues to increase as projected by
the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN, which by 2050 would
exceed the levels recommended by the WHO for a healthy, active lifestyle
(2,330 kcal/person/day, including 220 kcal from meat).
•
In general, lifestyle indicators move towards the current levels seen in
developed countries such as Europe.
Note that as the Global Calculator looks at world averages only.
The Global
Calculator
Project background
Origins
The Global
Calculator
The Global Calculator is a spin-off of the UK’s 2050
Calculator, launched by the Department of Energy and
Climate Change in 2010.
Available at: http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk
The Global
Calculator
The 2050 Calculator family
Since then, around 20 countries, regions and territories
have also built 2050 Calculators to help inform policy and
increase public understanding of energy issues, including:
China
South Korea
Nigeria
Hungary
India
South
Africa
Belgium
Austria
Japan
Mexico
Brazil
Indonesia
Australia
Bangladesh
Thailand
Vietnam
New
Zealand
Colombia
The Global
Calculator
My2050
Some 2050 Calculators have “My2050” game versions,
which can be used by the general public to help understand
and debate the future of energy and the climate.
Taiwan
South Africa
Principles of the 2050 Calculator
The Global
Calculator
• Relatively simple, engineering-based models designed
for scenario testing
• Contain all energy and all emissions
• Completely open source - the underlying Excel model
and documentation are published
• User friendly web-based interface means that nonexperts can use them
• Shows the full range of potential ambition across sectors
using a level 1 to 4 approach
• Involves external experts in the build of the tool and a
public consultation
For more information, see www.2050.org.uk
The Global Calculator team
The Global
Calculator
• The project is funded by the UK Government’s
International Climate Fund and Climate-KIC.
• The model was developed by the following organisations:
The Global
Calculator
Team structure
Sophie Hartfield
Team leader
Tom Bain
Laura Aylett
Lead
modeller
Engagement
Anindya
Bhattacharya
Electricity and
fossil fuels
Julien
Pestiaux,
Benoit
Lefevre &
Erin
Cooper
Transport
Michel
Cornet
Zhang Bo
Buildings
Materials
Davide D’Ambrosio IEA support on data, peer review
and stakeholder engagement
Jeremy
Woods,
Alexandre
Strapasson
& Nicole
Kalas
Land/bio/
food
Erica
Thompson
Climate
science and
impacts
Markus
Wrobel
Visuals
Support from Climate-KIC partners:
Utrecht University, Netherlands;
Potsdam Institute, Germany;
Walker Institute, UK; Rothamsted Research, UK;
University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-enYvelines, France; Met Office, UK; and Tyndall
Centre, UK.
Open consultation
The Global
Calculator
• Hundreds of experts were consulted
• Workshops and meetings were held during the
development phase in Washington DC, London, New
Delhi, Beijing and Brussels
• A draft version was published in July 2014 with an open
call for feedback
• The full version was launched on 28th January 2015 with
events in London and Beijing
The Global
Calculator
How the model works
An Excel-based model
The Global
Calculator
The basis of the Calculator model is an Excel spreadsheet,
which has a more user-friendly, web-based interface.
The full Excel model is available to download online.
Principles behind the Global
Calculator model
The Global
Calculator
The abiding principle when building the Calculator is that
the model should be:
“As simple as possible, but no simpler."
A global, long-term view
The Global
Calculator
• The Global Calculator allows you to decide how global
lifestyles, technologies, land use and demographics will
change from now to 2050.
• In order to make the tool easy to use and understand the
Global Calculator does not divide the world into separate
countries.
• Instead you change world averages and totals only (for
example, average diet, average car efficiency and total
solar power capacity).
• You then choose the overall emissions trend from 2050
to 2100.
Principles behind the Global
Calculator model
The Global
Calculator
The Global Calculator is an engineering-based scenario
model, which means that:
• it models the world’s energy supply and demand by
modelling physical units such cars and power plants
• the user chooses the characteristics, deployment and use
of these different technologies
• it makes no economics-based assumptions about the
way behaviour is affected by supply and demand
• it doesn't automatically optimise the energy system based
on price or any other factor
• it makes no assumption about geographical distribution
All scenarios are consistent with GDP growth projections.
Modelling each sector
The Global
Calculator
The Global Calculator separates the world into the following
sectors:
• Transport
• Buildings
• Manufacturing
• Electricity
• Fossil fuels
• Land, bioenergy and food
All sectors work independently as much as possible, with no
feedback loops.
Climate impacts and cost implications of the choices in
these sectors are shown.
The transport sector
The Global
Calculator
• Covers all relevant transportation modes, including
walking, cycling and international aviation
• Covers all technical options like electric and hydrogen
vehicles, as well as increases in efficiency
• Rural areas and three different city types are modelled
separately because they will have different opportunities
to build public transport systems in the future
• Personal and freight transport demand can be varied.
Buildings
The Global
Calculator
The calculator allows the user to choose:
• the warmth of our buildings in cold months and the heat
in cool months
• the ownership of appliances and lighting
• the size of our buildings
• the "envelope" of our buildings (i.e. how well insulated
they are)
• the technology we use for temperature control, cooking
and lighting
• the efficiency of our appliances.
Manufacturing
The Global
Calculator
• The model splits manufacturing into:
– Iron, steel and aluminium
– Chemicals
– Cement
– Paper and other
• Users can explore the impact of changing product
lifespans, recycling and smarter design in reducing
product demand
• Process optimization, fuel switches, energy efficiency and
carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be used to reduce
the emissions associated with manufacturing
Electricity
The Global
Calculator
• Electricity demand is set based on the user’s choices in
other sectors
• The model ensures there is never insufficient electricity
supply to meet demand
• If the user does not supply enough electricity from
renewables, nuclear and CCS, the Calculator
automatically gets it from unabated power stations (either
fuelled by fossil fuels or bioenergy depending on the
user’s choices)
• Electricity storage and demand shifting are included
Fossil fuels and bioenergy
The Global
Calculator
• Demand for solid, liquid and gas hydrocarbons is set in
the other sectors
• The model first meets this demand with solid, liquid and
gas bioenergy, the supply of which is set in the land, food
and bioenergy sector
• If there is not enough bioenergy, the Calculator extracts,
refines and burns fossil fuels
• The model can show you the fossil fuel reserves left in
the ground, based on current estimates.
Land and food and bioenergy
The Global
Calculator
• The model first allocates land needed to grow the world’s
food based on the user’s choices around population, diet
and land-use practices.
• If there is not enough existing farmland to feed the world,
then the model will cut down forests to meet demand.
• If we need less farmland in the future because food
demand has decreased or crop and livestock yields have
increased, then the user can use this “surplus land” to
regrow forests and/or grow bioenergy crops.
• The user also chooses whether to reduce the amount of
food that people waste, and whether to use food and
farm waste as bioenergy and animal feed.
Bioenergy
The Global
Calculator
• If the user is growing bioenergy crops, they can choose
whether to produce solid or liquid biofuels. The model
then uses this bioenergy as a replacement for fossil fuels
(e.g. liquid in car engines or solid in power stations).
• Bioenergy is in principle carbon neutral, as it captures
CO2 when the plants grow which is then released when it
is used. However, the model allocates several indirect
emissions to produce bioenergy, such as those attributed
from agriculture (e.g. fertilisers, farm machines) and land
use change (e.g. changes in soil carbon).
• The model can allow you to use bioenergy in CCS, which
produces “negative emissions”, as the CO2 captured by
the plants is stored underground.
“Speculative” technologies
The Global
Calculator
The Global Calculator allows you to use some technologies that
are not available or are not used at a large scale at the moment:
• Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is included for both power
generation (using gas, coal and possibly bioenergy) and
manufacturing (e.g. steel and cement production).
• Greenhouse gas removal (GGR) technologies (that remove
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere) are included in the
“technology and fuels” tab.
• Nuclear fusion is not modelled as a separate technology
because many experts do not believe that it could be
significantly deployed by 2050. If you believe that nuclear
fusion will be deployed, you could roughly simulate this by
choosing a high nuclear scenario or by amending the data in
the underlying spreadsheet.
Climate science
The Global
Calculator
• The tool converts the total emissions released by 2100
into a range of plausible global average temperature
change, using the latest evidence from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
• State-of-the-art climate models are used to visualise the
possible regional impacts consistent with this range of
temperature change, shown on maps in the climate tab.
• In the “basic physics” section you can also see results
based on much simpler physical relationships. This
shows how scientists' confidence in the global warming
effect is derived not just from the results of complex
climate models.
Costs
The Global
Calculator
• The tool estimates the cost of the global energy system
out to 2050, based on the user’s choices.
• This includes capital, operating and fuel costs, so it
covers things like the cost of power stations, wind
turbines, boilers, cars, trains, roads, fossil fuels and clean
technology used in manufacturing.
• In the costs tab you can compare the cost in your
pathway to many example pathways.
• Costs are uncertain looking this far into the future, so the
model shows a range of possible cost totals.
• Since the Calculator does not have regional detail, we
use US costs, taken mostly from the TIAM-UCL model.
The Global
Calculator
Follow-up activities
Testing out ideas (quick activity)
The Global
Calculator
• Start with the IEA’s 2DS pathway (a future where we
keep climate change below 2°C)
• Ask audience: “What action or technology do you think
could have a big impact on emissions?”
• Test out each suggestion using the Global Calculator by
clicking on level 1 and then on 4. Does it have a big
impact on emissions and temperature? Are any findings
surprising?
• Try and identify the levers that have the biggest impact
and discuss why this might be.
Remember: there is no one action that will make the world
reach the 2°C target – action needs to be taken in all
sectors.
Exploring the role of lifestyle (at
least 20 minutes)
The Global
Calculator
• The lifestyle section of the tool covers people’s average
travel, homes and diet. Ask the audience for suggestions
of how we can reduce the emissions associated with our
lifestyles.
• Test out the suggestions using the tool. What changes
have the biggest impact?
• Which actions do you think would be easier for people to
take? Which actions would be harder to implement?
• What infrastructure, policies or education programmes
would you implement to build a low-carbon future?
Start building a pathway 2°C
together (at least 30 minutes)
The Global
Calculator
• This activity works if you have access to only one screen,
and can be used with a large group.
• The aim is to start with the IEA’s 6DS pathway and build
a pathway that hits the 2°C line on the cumulative
emissions graph.
• The speaker should explain each lever and what the
choices are. The audience can then vote for levels 1, 2, 3
or 4. A suggested order for the levers is:
– Nuclear, renewables and CCS
– Travel, homes and diet
– Transport, buildings and manufacturing
– Food and land use
– Demographics
Build a pathway 2°C pathway (at
least 1 hour/homework assignment)
The Global
Calculator
• If your audience have access to individual computers,
split them into small groups. Ask them to start with the
IEA’s 6DS business as usual pathway and see if they can
design a 2°C pathway.
• Call the groups back together and ask each group to
explain their choices and whether they learnt anything
surprising.
• This can also work as a homework assignment – ask
students to write a report on the choices they made and
why they would recommend this pathway for the world.
They can include a link to their pathway (click the “share”
button to generate a unique URL).