Download The evolving and increasing need for climate change research on

ICES Journal of
Marine Science
ICES Journal of Marine Science (2016), 73(5), 1267– 1271. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsw052
Introduction to the Symposium: ‘Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans’
Introduction
The evolving and increasing need for climate change
research on the oceans
Manuel Barange1*, Jacquelynne King 2, Luis Valdés3, and Alexander Turra4
1
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, BC, Canada V9T 6N7
3
Instituto Español de Oceanografı́a, C.O. Santander, Spain
4
Instituto Oceanografico, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
2
*Corresponding author: e-mail: m.barange@pml.ac.uk
Barange, M., King, J., Valdés, L., and Turra, A. The evolving and increasing need for climate change research on the oceans. – ICES
Journal of Marine Science, 73: 1267– 1271.
Received 9 March 2016; revised 10 March 2016; accepted 11 March 2016; advance access publication 7 April 2016.
The 3rd International Symposium on the Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans was held in Santos, Brazil, in March 2015, convened by
the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES), and the Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC), and organized locally by the Oceanographic Institute, University of Sao Paulo (IO-USP). The symposium was designed to do two things. First, to get updates on new scientific developments that would address recognized uncertainties that
remained from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report and to contribute to building bridges between research in the natural and social sciences in respect to the human dimensions of climate change, with a focus on coastal communities, management
objectives, governance and adaptation measures. The choice of the venue in Santos, Brazil, was aimed to stimulate and widen this thematic discussion in Latin America and southern Atlantic regions, where there still are important knowledge gaps and scientific, politic and societal challenges
to be overcome. The meeting was attended by 280 participants from 38 countries, contributing 336 oral and poster presentations. This paper summarizes the main outcomes of the symposium and introduces a number of papers submitted to this special issue.
Keywords: climate change, Global Oceans, marine ecosystems, international symposium.
In 2007, the IPCC produced its 4th Assessment Report (IPCC,
2007). A mammoth task demonstrating that climate change was occurring, caused largely by human activities, and that it posed significant risks for—and often was already affecting—a broad range of
human and natural systems. Ocean scientists, particularly biologists, noted that the report included 25 586 examples of significant
biological changes in terrestrial ecosystems but for only 85 examples
from marine or freshwater systems (Richardson and Poloczanska,
2008). The authors argue that this imbalance was an artefact of
the distribution of global science funding, the difficulty of disentangling multiple stressors from relatively poorly sampled systems, the
disconnect between marine and terrestrial ecology, and the way
marine ecologists report research findings. It is in this context that
the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES),
the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES), and the
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC)
# International
organized the first International Symposium on the Effects of
Climate Change on the World’s Oceans in Gijon, Spain (Valdés
et al., 2009), to capture some of the latest evidence on the degree
that the oceans were changing, in terms of warming, sea level rise,
acidification, biodiversity loss and ecosystem function. The symposium concluded that humanity was interfering with pivotal
mechanisms of the Earth System. The preparation and ground
work for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth
Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) took note of this emerging evidence
and, in a sign of departure from AR4, included dedicated chapters
on ocean systems (Chapters 6 and 30).
The 2nd ICES/PICES/IOC International Symposium in this series
was hosted in Yeosu, Korea in 2012, in the midst of intense IPCC AR5
drafting. Much of the work presented in Yeosu was included in the
IPCC AR5 WGII report (IPCC, 2014). Gattuso et al. (2015) summarized the IPCC AR5 conclusions with respect to the ocean in four
Council for the Exploration of the Sea 2016. All rights reserved.
For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com
1268
dramatic messages: Oceans strongly influence the climate system and
provide important services to humans; impacts on key marine and
coastal organisms, ecosystems, and services are already detectable,
across all latitudes, and will face high risks well before 2100; immediate
and substantial reduction of CO2 emissions is required to prevent irreversible impacts on ocean ecosystems and their services; not limiting
emissions to drastic levels will result in a substantially different ocean.
As atmospheric CO2 increases, protection, adaptation, and repair
options for the ocean become fewer and less effective.
The rationale for the 3rd International Symposium on Effects of
Climate Change on the World’s Oceans was to continue reinforcing
the message that oceans are crucial to understand climate change,
that the impacts of climate change on the oceans are to be taken seriously, and that both are needed in the ongoing re-evaluation of the
relationship we as humans have with nature and the ecosystem services it provides. Oceans are central to the climate system, recycling
half of the oxygen we breathe and absorbing half of the carbon
dioxide we emit through the burning of fossil fuels. They accumulate
over 95% of the Earth’s water and mobile carbon, providing food and
livelihood opportunities. Discussing the effects of climate change on
the world’s oceans is thus critical to understanding what is changing,
how is it changing and in what way these changes will influence dependent communities. While there is recognition that direct and indirect effects of climate change are already visible, most impacts can
only be projected based on existing observations, experimentation
and modelling efforts. The choice of venue in Santos, Brazil, was
aimed to stimulate and widen this thematic discussion in Latin
America and southern Atlantic regions, where there are still important knowledge gaps and significant scientific, politic, and societal
challenges to overcome (Turra et al., 2013).
The Symposium, like the others in the series, was jointly convened by the ICES, PICES, and IOC. It was organized locally by
the Oceanographic Institute, University of Sao Paulo, and was
designed to do two things. First, to get updates on new scientific developments that would address recognized uncertainties that remained
from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment
Report (e.g. Gattuso et al., 2015; Weatherdon et al., 2015; WCRP,
2015), and in particular:
† The extent of warming in deep water masses (,700 m).
† The likelihood of climate-induced changes to major upwelling
systems.
† The ways in which climate-induced changes in the physiology
and biogeography of an individual species may alter ecosystem
structure, species interactions, and foodwebs.
† The sensitivity of ecosystems impacted by multiple drivers (e.g.
ocean warming, acidification, and hypoxia), multiple stressors,
and synergistic impacts.
† The capacity for phenotypic and evolutionary adaptation over
generations in response to long-term climate change.
† The emerging climate-impacts to coastal sectors, such as tourism
and aquaculture, and the consequences of change in terms human
well-being and regional economic development, and finally.
† Our ability to forecast impacts and changes at national and ecosystem scales and to scale these to fisheries food production and
security, including potential adaptation responses.
Our second objective was to contribute to the building of bridges
between research in the natural and social sciences in respect to the
M. Barange et al.
human dimensions of climate change, with a focus on coastal communities, management objectives, governance, and adaptation options. A
Keynote address from Prof. Chris Field, Co-chair of IPCC 5AR WGII
set the scope for the symposium, mapping the potential impacts of
climate change to socio-economic processes (adaptation, mitigation,
and governance) through assessments of risks and uncertainty. This
was followed by 12 sessions covering different but interconnected
themes, from physical processes and their interaction with ecosystem
dynamics, to resource provision and ocean governance (see
Supplementary material). The latest developments in predicting
changes in biodiversity, phenology, fisheries, and ecosystems, as well
as in the physical systems that sustains these, were presented with a
view to inform discussions on the risks and opportunities that
climate change will bring to coastal communities and to society at large.
The outcomes of the symposium have been used widely, and
in particular were presented at the July 2015 international conference Our Common Future Under Climate Change (http://www
.commonfuture-paris2015.org/):
- Ocean warming is evident from the recent observational
record, and is projected to continue in coming decades, although
the degree of warming is not geographically consistent. What we
need to measure, with what frequency and for what purpose
requires careful consideration.
- Climate change is affecting a very large number of physical,
chemical, biological, and ecological properties. The magnitude
of the changes varies between variables. Much discussion was
devoted to non-linearity of processes and the potential for
tipping points.
- While modelling the future ocean has developed significantly
in recent years, increasing the spatial and temporal resolution of
these models remains crucial, especially to understand climate
change impacts in coastal regions, shelf seas, and upwelling
systems, and to consider the role of climate variability in intensifying or reducing underlying trends.
- Most studies indicate an ongoing geographical displacement
of organisms towards polar regions, although the displacement
rate and settlement success varies between regions and species.
For some species, displacement is not an option.
- Phenological changes are increasingly observed, with concerns that these can lead to a degree of mismatch between predators and their prey. Some species are capable of adjusting life
history strategies to cope with change, while others have a
more rigid and thus vulnerable life history.
- Ocean acidification is one of the most active and successful
areas of global change research. As the discipline matures, we
not only recognize impacts but also their vast geographical variability, as well as the significant roles of acclimation and evolutionary adaptation in response to change.
- Research on the impacts of climate change on dependent
coastal communities highlights the narrative of winners and
losers, and the difficulty to find solutions that benefit or reduce
impacts for all in equal ways or reduce.
- In particular, climate change is an additional stressor, reinforcing other impacts such as overfishing, pollution, and habitat
loss, and causing cascades of impacts across assets and communities. Understanding vulnerability footprints at the right scale is
a prerequisite for the development of successful adaptations.
The climate change research on the oceans
- In the end, climate change impact management is about
managing risk, a process to advance toward sustainable pathways
in the midst of incomplete information. Developing a new narrative based on risk management is essential if we want the
oceans to be part of the climate solution.
The meeting was attended by 280 participants from 38 countries,
contributing 336 oral and poster presentations in Theme Sessions
and Workshops. All symposium presentations (with author’s permission) are available for viewing (http://www.pices.int/meetings/
international_symposia/2015/2015-Climate-Change/scope.aspx)
as well as the book of abstracts (see Supplementary material). As
climate change research has become mainstream in the scientific literature most of the papers presented have been or are in the process of
appearing in the many journals concerned with this topic. This issue
of the ICES Journal of Marine Science includes nine papers from the
symposium.
Kristiansen et al. (2016) explores the links between Calanus spp.
and water masses in the Norwegian Sea, and in particular the relationship between copepod dynamics and the inflow of warm and
saline water from the southwest and cold and less saline water
from the northwest of the study region. These two water masses
meet and form the Iceland Faroe Front (IFF), where Calanus finmarchicus plays a key ecological role. Their goal was to explore
how changes in circulation patterns under climate change could
affect Norwegian Sea ecosystems. The paper describes that the
main reproductive period of C. finmarchicus historically started
consistently earlier south of the IFF, resulting in different life
cycles and stage compositions in the two water masses. However,
record high values of temperature and salinity were recorded in
2003 north of the IFF, which resulted in some peculiar changes:
North populations of C. finmarchicus reproduced earlier, increasing
from one to two new generations per year, and giving the species a
competitive advantage over C. hyperboreus. They conclude that
this is an example of the potential strong effects of climate change
on the ecosystem and pelagic fish in this subpolar Atlantic region.
The impacts of climate change on complex predator–prey relationships are investigated by Spencer et al. (2016). Their work
focuses on recent adaptations of arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes
stomias) to climate variability and what they may tell us for the longterm dynamics of the species under climate change. Arrowtooth
flounder prey on juvenile walleye pollock, but their spatial
overlap—a requirement for successful predation—is determined
by the size and location of the so called “cold pool”, a region of
cold bottom waters in summer which arrowtooth flounder avoids.
Projections of sea surface temperature (SST) and “cold pool” area
were obtained from nine global climate models and used within
an age-structure population model to project walleye pollock
abundance. The projections show a wide range of variability but
an overall trend of increasing SST and decreasing cold pool area,
which in turn drove a decreasing trend in projected walleye pollock
biomass. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the decline in projected
walleye pollock biomass would be exacerbated if arrowtooth flounder expanded their distribution in the eastern Bering Sea in warm
years.
The impacts of geographical changes caused by climate change
were one of the most discussed topics in the symposium, as shifts
are one of the most common fingerprints of climate change in the
marine environment. Alabia et al. (2016) examines the potential
changes in the habitat distributions in the North Pacific of the
neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) under three climate
1269
scenarios (IPCC RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5), based on the statistical dependence of squid habitat on SST. They note that future
squid habitat predictions in the western and central North Pacific
will suffer from a net reduction in suitable habitat coupled with a
northward habitat retreat, proportional to the levels of warming.
These trends could translate into shorter squid fishing periods and
offshore shifts of the squid fishing grounds, providing useful input
to fishery management options and adaptations under climate
change.
Following on the same narrative of geographical shifts, Cormon
et al. (2016) investigated the impacts of species migrations on the dynamics of marine ecosystems. They did so by estimating the consequences of the expansion of European hake (Merluccius merluccius)
to the North Sea over the last 15 years, in response to warmer temperatures. They used a multispecies assessment model that focused
on hake, as a new predator, and North Sea saithe (Pollachius virens)
and Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) as competitors. Modelling
revealed a clear negative impact of hake on saithe biomass, emerging
from an increase in predation pressure on Norway pout. This provides a good example of the indirect impacts that can be expected
from climate change on the functioning of marine ecosystems.
Van Putten et al. (2016) followed the narrative of geographical
shifts, but this time focused on the potentially dramatic changes
in the distribution of subsequent economic, social, and cultural
opportunities. The authors argue that a reluctance to attribute
marine range shifts to climate change may undermine the effectiveness of climate change communications and pose a potential barrier
to successful adaptation. They explore three cognitive processes that
underpin the formation of marine resource users’ beliefs using
examples of range shifts experienced in a marine hotspots in southeast Australia. These processes are engrained mental representations
of environmental phenomena, scientific complexity in the attribution pathway, and dissonance from the positive or negative nature
of the impact. They conclude that all three play a part in explaining
the complex pattern of attribution of marine climate change range
shifts, and should be considered when planning for engagement
with stakeholders and managers around adaptation to climate
change.
Szuwalski and Hollowed (2016) focused their work on how to
incorporate climate change impacts into fisheries management
processes. They start by recognizing that management targets for
fishing mortality and spawning biomass are often calculated by
assuming stationary population processes, but that climate change
will violate this assumption. They note that there are very few accepted frameworks that incorporate the changing influence of the
environment on exploited populations into management strategies,
and call for such frameworks to be developed. They emphasize that
Management Strategy Evaluations could be useful to understand the
potential benefits and costs of changing management targets under
changing environmental conditions.
In one of the few examples presented on climate change impacts
in developing regions, Fernandes et al. (2016) project changes to the
long-term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under
climate and fisheries management scenarios. They did so by downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates and projecting high-resolution changes in
physical and biochemical ocean properties. Their interest was on
future catch potential for Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha) and
Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus). They concluded that under sustainable management practices Hilsa shad catches may show a
minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant decline
1270
by 2060. For Bombay duck, potential catches under sustainable
scenarios will produce a decline of ,20% compared with current
catches. The results demonstrate that management interventions
can mitigate or indeed exacerbate the effects of climate change on
ecosystem productivity.
One of the most recognized issues in the climate change scientific
literature is the treatment of uncertainty in predictions. The special
issue includes two contributions on this topic. Cheung et al. (2016)
discuss the lack of formal and systematic treatment of uncertainty in
living marine resource projections. They synthesize the different
sources of uncertainty by drawing from climate model intercomparison efforts, and suggest an ensemble of available models
and projections as a starting point to quantify uncertainties. They
use two examples, global and regional projections of SST and
catch projections of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) in the 21st
century, to illustrate their approach to explore uncertainties.
Payne et al. (2016) on the other hand discuss how adaptation strategies need to formally identify, quantify, and communicate uncertainty to both evaluate the risk associated with a projection and to
build confidence in its robustness. They break uncertainties down
into structural (model) uncertainty, initialization and internal variability uncertainty, parametric uncertainty and scenario uncertainty, and review the state of the art in respect to the marine
science literature. They conclude that marine science should strive
to reach the point where scenario is the dominant source of uncertainty in projections.
Overall, the work presented at the symposium demonstrated
the increased maturity of climate change research, particularly in
relation to biological and ecological systems. Earlier work based
on simple parameterizations, short-term experiments, and lowresolution modelling is increasingly being replaced with highresolution ensemble modelling, complex experimental set ups,
and increased recognition of acclimation and adaptation processes.
Despite some significant advances, linking natural and social
science in tackling marine socio-ecological systems remains challenging, particularly in relation to bridging differences of scale,
process connectivity and linearity, and attribution. We foresee
that a 4th international symposium on the effects of Climate
Change in the World’s Oceans will be needed to provide significant
progress in this area, harness contributions to the IPCC AR6, as well
as other global initiatives such as the United Nations Regular
Process for Global Reporting and Assessment of the State of the
Marine Environment.
Supplementary data
Supplementary material is available at the ICESJMS online version
of the manuscript.
Acknowledgements
We thank the sponsor organizations, ICES, IOC, PICES and the host,
IO-USP, for their sponsorship. Additional support was received
from the Brazilian Federal Government, through MEC (Ministry
of Education), CAPES (Coordination for the Improvement of
Higher Education Personnel), and CNPq (Brazilian National
Council for Scientific and Technological Development), FAPESP
(São Paulo Research Foundation), FUNDESPA (Foundation for
Aquatic Studies and Research), IAEA/OA-ICC (International Atomic
Energy Agency, Ocean Acidification International Coordination
Centre), IMBER (Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and
Ecosystem Research), ITAU bank, LabHidro (Hydrometeorology
M. Barange et al.
Laboratory, Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric
Sciences at São Paulo University, Program SIHESP/FARESP),
NOAA (US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration),
NPRB (North Pacific Research Board), ONR (US Office Naval
Research), SCOR (Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research),
and SOLAS (Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study).
References
Alabia, I., Saitoh, S-I., Igarashi, H., Ishikawa, Y., Usui, N., Kamachi, M.,
and Seito, M. 2016. Future projected impacts of ocean warming to
squid potential habitat in western and central North Pacific. ICES
Journal of Marine Science, 73: 1343–1369.
Cheung, W. W. L., Asch, R., Froelicher, T., Reygondeau, G., Jones, M.,
Pinsky, M., Rodgers, K., et al. 2016. Projecting changes to living
marine resources in an uncertain future. ICES Journal of Marine
Science, 73: 1283–1296.
Cormon, X., Kempf, A., Vermard, Y., Vinther, M., and Marchal, P. 2016.
Emergence of a new predator in the North Sea: evaluation of
potential trophic impacts focused on hake, saithe, and Norway
pout. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 73: 1370–1381.
Fernandes, J., Kay, S., Hossain, M., Ahmed, M., Cheung, W., Lazar, A.,
and Barange, M. 2016. Projecting marine fish production and catch
potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios. ICES Journal of
Marine Science, 73: 1357 –1369.
Gattuso, J. P., Magnan, A., Billé, R., Cheung, W. W., Howes, E. L., Joos,
F., Allemand, D., et al. 2015. Contrasting futures for ocean and
society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios.
Science 349: aac4722.
IPCC, 2007. Climate change 2007: synthesis report. In Contribution of
Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Ed. by Core Writing
Team, R. K. Pachauri, and A. Reisinger. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
104 pp.
IPCC. 2014. Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. In Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. Ed. by C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J.
Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee,
K. L. Ebi, Y. O. Estrada, R. C. Genova, B. Girma, E. S. Kissel, A. N.
Levy, S. MacCracken, P. R. Mastrandrea, and L. L. White.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York, NY, USA, UK.
1132 pp.
Kristiansen, I., Gaard, E., Hátún, H., Jonasdottir, S., and Ferreira, A.
2016. Persistent shift of Calanus spp. in the south-western
Norwegian Sea since 2003, linked to ocean climate. ICES Journal
of Marine Science, 73: 1319–1329.
Payne, M., Barange, M., Batchelder, H., Cheung, W., Cormon, X., Eddy, T.,
Fernandes, J., et al. 2016. Uncertainties in projecting climate change
impacts in marine ecosystems. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 73:
1272–1282.
Richardson, A. J., and Poloczanska, E. S. 2008. Under-resources, under
threat. Science, 320: 1294– 1295.
Spencer, P., Holsman, K., Zador, S., Bond, N., Mueter, F., Hollowed, A.,
and Ianelli, J. 2016. Modeling spatially-dependent predation of
eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock and its implications for stock dynamics under future climate scenarios. ICES Journal of Marine
Science, 73: 1330 –1342.
Szuwalski, C., and Hollowed, A. 2016. Managing the winners and losers
of climate change. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 73: 1297–1305.
Turra, A., Cróquer, A., Carranza, A., Mansilla, A., Areces, A. J.,
Werlinger, C., Martı́nez-Bayón, C., et al. 2013. Global environmental
changes: setting priorities for Latin American coastal habitats.
Global Change Biology, 19: 1965– 1969.
Valdés, L., Peterson, W., Church, K., and Marcos, M. 2009. Our changing oceans: conclusions of the first International Symposium on
the Effects of climate change on the world’s oceans. ICES Journal
of Marine Science, 66: 1435 –1438.
The climate change research on the oceans
van Putten, E., Frusher, S., Fulton, E., Hobday, A., Jennings, S., Metcalf,
S., and Pecl, G. 2016. Empirical evidence for different cognitive
effects in explaining the attribution of marine range shifts to
climate change. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 73: 1306–1318.
WCRP. 2015. IPCC AR5: lessons learnt for climate change research and
WCRP. WCRP Report 5/2015. 86 pp.
1271
Weatherdon, L., Rogers, A., Sumaila, R., Magnan, A., and Cheung,
W. W. L. 2015. The Oceans 2015 Initiative, Part II: An updated
understanding of the observed and projected impacts of ocean
warming and acidification on marine and coastal socioeconomic activities/sectors. Studies N803/15, IDDRI. Paris, France,
46 pp.