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CLOUDS: KEYS TO UNDERSTANDING WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND THE HYDROLOGIC CYCLE -Jack R. Holt A MEMORIAL DAY TRIP If you don’t like the weather in Oklahoma, just wait a minute. -Will Rogers I recall a particular windless, sultry Memorial Day in Tulsa. A group within my extended family had decided to go to a reservoir outside of the city for a day of picnicking and swimming. We secured a van for the purpose, and spent the day trying to be comfortable under a nearly cloudless sky. After a day in the Oklahoma sun, we returned in late afternoon. I was elected to drive. From a distance I could see a large anvil-topped thunderhead building over the city, and the first thing that came to mind was “maybe it will cool things off.” As we approached, we saw that the cloud had grown to monstrous proportions and periodic lightening flashes punctuated its blackness. The whole scene looked as though an angry god was about to take vengeance on the city, a notion that was not far from being wrong. Rain began to fall in unrelenting sheets so that the windshield wipers became completely ineffective. When I could see, the water had filled the street to above the curb and formed shallow streams that were growing. We made it to my mother’s home, which stood on relatively high ground and took shelter in the basement. There, we sat, sometimes by candlelight, and told stories, ate popcorn, and waited. The storm raged throughout the evening and began to die down in intensity only near midnight. However, the authorities urged listeners by radio to stay in their homes, because most roads were flooded and very dangerous. By morning, the rain had stopped, but Tulsa had become a shallow lake, and the small hill on which our house sat was one of many islands. That morning, I went for a walk in the neighborhood and saw downed trees, cars in odd places, and even one car sitting atop another. The news and weather programs that day (and for days after that) announced that we had received 11.5 inches of rain in a single storm. The morning began with pillows of fair weather cumulus clouds and gave way to another hot day. Weather and clouds are related to each other. Furthermore, the discovery of clouds as physical entities that could be described, labeled, and categorized, was a crucial link in understanding weather and the great Hydrologic Cycle of water from the oceans to the atmosphere, and back, ultimately, to the oceans again. The description of the general features of the great cycle had been known since before Greek Natural Philosophy, but an understanding of clouds, cloud formation and the physics of clouds was absolutely necessary to connect the atmosphere to the ocean to help explain why parts of the earth were deserts and others were replete with rain. A CLASSIFICATION OF CLOUDS It is not in the least amiss for those who are involved in meteorological research to give some attention to the form of clouds. -Lamarck Jean Baptiste Pierre Antoine de Monet chevalier de Lamarck (1744-1829; France) was one of the very first to attempt to use a classification system as a way to support a theory of evolution. He had been made the curator of worms (invertebrates) at the Musee Nationale in Paris. In that position, he attempted to make sense of the diversity of all animals without backbones and build on the classification system of Linnaeus, many years earlier. He also tried to apply a method of classification to clouds, other natural chaotic structures. Lamarck saw that clouds seemed to occur in five different types: • Hazy clouds (en forme de voile) • Massed clouds (attroupes) • Dappled clouds (pommeles) • Broom-like clouds (en balayeurs) • Grouped clouds (groupes) He published his classification system of clouds in 1802 and expanded it to twelve types in 1805. Lamarck wrote that the purpose for such a classification system was to group them according to their causes. That is, he expected that their shapes were related to how they were formed. Thus, his categories were linked to potential explanations of their formation. In 1802, an Englishman named Luke Howard (1772-1864) also saw a need to classify clouds. He had been raised a Quaker, sent to a Quaker school, and later in life became one of the leading members of the Society of Friends. Beyond that he did not have special education in the sciences. Indeed, he was a successful pharmacist. Although he was only an amateur scientist, he had become a very prolific one. It was at a meeting of amateur scientists that Howard presented his classification system for clouds. He categorized them into four basic types and gave them descriptive Latin names: • Cumulus (Latin, heap) • Stratus (Latin, layer) • Cirrus, (Latin, curl) • Nimbus (Latin, rain) The first three were named for their forms while the last one was named for its action, precipitation. He recognized that clouds by their nature change and can change from one form to another. While others had seen this as a problem with a descriptive taxonomy, Howard expanded his system to accommodate the transitional stages. For example, cumulus clouds could begin to bunch together. As they did so, they formed a kind of broken layer of bunched clouds, which he called cumulo stratus. Other transitional clouds included: • Cirro-Stratus (small, rounded clouds in a layer) • Cirro-cumulus resembled the very successful Latin classification system that Carolus Linnaeus had created for living things. When meteorologists all over the world had a means to categorize clouds by formal definitions, then they could communicate aspects of clouds. FIGURE 2. . High waves of cirrus and developing mid-level clouds as the leading edge of a warm front moves from south to north at the end of February 2005. FIGURE 3. . This is a cumulus cloud that a cumulo-nimbus (note the snow shower falling from the left end of it). FIGURE 1. Luke Howard. An image from the John Day website at . http://www.cloudman.com/luke/luke_howard.htm His classification system was almost immediately successful and almost universally adopted. The reasons that the world adopted Howard’s system, as opposed to that of Lamarck likely are complex. However the consensus seems to be that Lamarck used French phrases while Howard used the more universal (and neutral) Latin terms. Also, Howard’s system CLOUDS AND WEATHER The sky, too, belongs to the landscape. The ocean of air in which we live and move, in which the bolt of heaven is forged, and the fructifying rain condensed, can never be to the zealous Naturalist a subject of tame and unfeeling contemplation. -Luke Howard Clouds form when air becomes supersaturated with water, which then condenses. There are several ways in which air can become supersaturated: it can gain water, it can become cooler, or it can change its ability to hold water due to change in air pressure. Cloud formation usually involves all three components. Fog is a special type of cloud whose formation is indipendent of air pressure because it develops on the ground from air that is saturated and then cools off (usually through radiative cooling). mountain (see Figure 5). As air is forced up and over the mountain, water condenses so that the windward side of the mountain has a wet climate with frequent rainfalls. As the air passes up and over the mountain, it descends on the other side. The warmer, denser air can hold much more water, but most of that has been wrung out of it. So, the other side is very dry, often desert, sitting as it does in the rain shadow of the mountain. FIGURE 5. A diagram of the influence that a barrier like a mountain can have in a on regional climates. The windward side of the mountain has frequent rainfalls while the leeward side is a desert in the rain shadow of the mountain. FIGURE 4. A Diagram of cloud formation from thermal convection. The column on the left illustrates the relative density of air molecules with height due to pressure changes. The arrows indicate the movement of warmer, moistureladen air into higher, less dense, cold levels where the moisture condenses to form clouds. Most clouds develop as air rises. A simple case would be that of a thermal (see Figure 4). Air near the ground is heated through the day, and begins to rise displacing the cooler air above it. It carries moisture that had dissolved at the temperature and pressure near the ground. As it rises, air carries moisture from near the ground at near sea-level atmospheric pressure. However, air higher in the atmosphere has less air over it pressing down; so, the air molecules are farther apart and the air column is cooler, a mechanism called adiabatic cooling. The water dissolved in the air at the temperature and pressure on the ground condenses at the more rarified, cooler temperatures at higher levels, and clouds are made. This is not always benign. The thunderstorm that Tulsa experienced on the Memorial Day was due to the thermal convection from the heat island of the city. In a way, the city brought down destruction on itself. A similar situation can be seen when moisture-laden air encounters a barrier, like a Of course, the global situation that influences weather and cloud formation usually is much more complex (go to Ice Ages for a more complete explanation). The atmosphere is made of air masses that have different temperatures and interact with each other. The line along which air masses collide is called a front. If a mass of warm air collides with a mass of cold air, the warm air tends to override the denser cool air (see Figure 6). The outcome is a gradual change from high cirrus clouds followed by midlevel stratus that gives way to low level stratus that frequently becomes a nimbus. Cold fronts have a different structure from warm fronts. Because the approaching cold air is denser than the warm air that it is moving into, it tends to form a bulge. Along the leading edge, warm air is forced upwards. There, immense towering thunderheads that give rise to many of the spring and summer severe storms can form (see Figure 7). During the winter many of the cold fronts come down from the Arctic air mass. Such cold air is very dense and tends to be associated with high pressure cells. As such, it tends to descend from the high, dry layers and produce those clear, bright, cold winter days (see Figure 8). This is similar to the descent of air on the rain shadow side of a mountain. FIGURE 6. A diagram of cloud formation and weather changes as a warm air mass slices intoa cold mass. FIGURE 7. A cold front moves into a mass of warm air. The cold air, being denser, does not override the warm mass, but moves into it along a bulging interface. It tends to force the warm air to rise along the bulge , and can form severe weather. FIGURE 8. A diagram of why high pressure tends to form a cloudless sky. The high pressure column tends to make the air descend from high, dry air. Thus, there is no source of dissolved water that would tend to give rise to clouds. THE HYDROLOGIC CYCLE The hydrologic cycle is the perpetual movement of water throughout the various components of Earth’s climate system. Thomas Pagano & Soroosh Sorooshian Clouds are among the most visible of the components of Earth’s climate system, but the amount of water actually contained in them is diminishingly small compared to the amounts in the oceans or on land (see Figure 9). Indeed, most of the water held by the atmosphere is not in the forms of clouds. Nevertheless, they are necessary as conduits of water from the oceans to land. Furthermore, evaporation removes heat from the oceans and serves to transfer it from warmer, tropical regions toward the poles. A major pool of water, particularly freshwater, can be found in glaciers and other ice fields. Though some occur at high altitudes, most occur at high latitudes. Glaciers can contain as much as 70% of all freshwater (though freshwater is only 2.5% of the total amount of water on Earth). Although permanent ice has so much water locked up, it does not figure significantly in the hydrologic cycle, because the exchange rates are so low. For example, glacial ice renews itself at the rate of about 10,000 years while atmospheric water renews itself about every 18 days. So, although there is less water in the atmosphere than in polar ice, the contribution to the hydrologic cycle by polar ice is negligible. FIGURE 9. The Hydrologic Cycle. The three major reservoirs of global water and the rates and types of movement between the reservoirs. Water comes to land solely by means of precipitation. Much of it flows on the surface, or infiltrates into the ground to become groundwater, but eventually makes its way back to the ocean (37x1012m3/yr). As water returns to the ocean, it carries nutrients and sediments with it. Surprisingly, though, almost twice as much water (37x1012m3/yr) goes back into the atmosphere from land through evaporation and the movement through plants called transpiration The most impressive exchange occurs between the ocean and the atmosphere where nearly 80% of the water evaporated returns as precipitation. Clouds thus generated increase the albedo or reflectivity of the Earth and affect the global heat energy budget (Glacier and ice reflect light/heat about as well as clouds do). Heat energy imparted to the atmosphere through evaporation, serves to moderate temperatures toward the poles. Indeed, in climate change (global warming) scenarios, the temperatures at the poles will see a much greater increase than those at the equator for that reason. A deeper understanding of the hydrologic cycle will allow us to better explain questions like: • What happens to cause and maintain an ice age? • How do the cold periods of the ice ages end? • What happened to bring about the end of the snowball (or shush ball) Earth? • How did the hydrologic cycle operate during such periods? • How did the hydrologic cycle operate during times when the earth was much warmer? For example, during the time of the midCretaceous (the last period in the great Age of the Dinosaurs), the Earth was much warmer than it is today. Estimates based on oxygen isotopes in rock laid down at the time suggest that the average global temperature was about 8C higher than it is today, due in part to 3-4 times the The current levels of atmospheric CO2. increased atmospheric temperatures also produced increased evaporation rates and a much more active hydrologic cycle. Consequences for the planet were profound. Global precipitation rates were up more than 25% over the present day. This led to the formations of nutrientdepleted lateritic soils well into the temperate zone. Also, the differences between the temperatures of the tropical and polar regions were much smaller. The Cretaceous scenario would seem almost like paradise, particularly as I think about scraping the windows of my car at the end of another Pennsylvania winter. Shouldn’t we welcome climate change that would bring about increased global temperatures? Unfortunately, the devil is in the details, most of which have yet to be discovered. First of all, I am sure that the anticipation would turn more to dread if you were to read this in mid-July. The most important questions, though, center around what would a more active, energetic hydrologic cycle be like? Clearly, a warmer atmosphere is a more energetic atmosphere, which produces storms of greater energy levels. Imagine an Earth in which hurricanes come at category 6 over an ocean that has expanded by the temperature increase. This is just one type of disaster that I can anticipate; an attribute of a complex system, like the hydrologic cycle, is that most outcomes cannot be anticipated by examining the components of that system. That is why the amount of water in the atmosphere is not as important as the exchange rates between the atmosphere and the land, the mediators of which are clouds. Thus, the study and understanding of clouds and cloud formation are vital to our understanding of weather, climate, the hydrologic cycle, and what the Earth might be like by the end of the 21st Century. Luke Howard provided the foundation by which clouds could be categorized and classified. This he provided the foundation that led to the development of modern meteorology by assigning a common set of terms and concepts to a dynamic system by which others could communicate and then begin to explain. The aspect of common language is important because science is a community of people who just won’t shut up. They constantly evaluate and reinterpret evidence as skeptics and “devil’s advocates”. They communicate explanations for phenomena, and all that must be done with the terminologies of their respective disciplines to seek with greater precision nature’s subtle truths. Unfortunately, charlatans among politicians, the business community, and policy makers prey upon the minds of an uninformed public. They present the discussion within the scientific community as lack of qualified knowledge. Nothing could be farther from the truth; scientists seek a precision of knowledge that they do not now have. Nevertheless a less precise understanding is infinitely better for a society to use than that of outright ignorance fueled by greed. In 1995, the phrase “Global Warming” in legitimate scientific literature was rare. Now the phrase along with the more general variant, Climate Change, is quite common. Certainly, the community of scientists sees the tempest ahead. Will we as a society ignore the signs and drive headlong into the storm? -March 2005 SOURCES CONSULTED FOR THE ESSAY: Gedzelman, Stanley. 1989. Cloud Classification Before Luke Howard. Bulletin American Meteorological Society. 70(4): 381-395. Hamblyn, Richard, 2001. The Invention of Clouds. Picador. New York. Holton, James. 1992. An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology. Third Edition. Academic Press. New York. Pagano, Thomas and Soroosh Sorooshian. 2002. The Hydrologic Cycle. IN: Michael MacCracken and John Perry, eds. Vol 1. The Earth System: Physical and ChemicalDimensions of Global Environmental Change. Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change (Ted Munn, editor-in-chief). John Wiley and Sons, ltd. Chichester. Peterson, Larry, Gerald Haug, Konrad Hughen, Ursula Rohl. 2000. Rapid Changes in the Hydrologic Cycle of the Tropical Atlantic During the Last Glacial. Science 290:19471951. Pierrehumbert, Raymond. 2002. The Hydrologic Cycle in Deep-Time Climate Problems. Nature 419: 191-198. White, Tim, Luis Gonzalez, Greg Ludvigson, Chris Poulsen. 2001. Middle Cretaceous Greenhouse Hydrologic Cycle of North America. Geology. 29(4): 363-366. http://observe.arc.nasa.gov/ QUESTIONS TO THINK ABOUT 1. What are the four major categories of clouds? 2. Why, although he presented a cloud classification system earlier, was Lamarck’s system ignored? 3. Who created the cloud classification system that we use today? 4. What is the major difference in the way that a cloud forms and fog forms? 5. How can a thermal form a cloud? In what way is that similar to the way in which a barrier like a mountain forms clouds? 6. How can a mountain be responsible for the formation of a desert? What is that called? 7. Clouds frequently form at the margins of air masses. How do the structures of warm and cold fronts differ? 8. Why does high pressure produce clear skies? 9. What is the hydrologic cycle? What are the major “reservoirs” of water within the cycle? 10. Why are glaciers and permanent ice fields not considered important in the hydrologic cycle? 11. How can the Cretaceous Period inform us about global warming?