Download Test A

PHI 031: A PPRAISING S CIENTIFIC R EASONING , A UG . 22, 2016, T EST 1/V ERSION A
YOUR NAME:
DIRECTIONS: Read the questions carefully; the wording matters. Use what you know to figure
out what you don’t. Good luck!
PART I.
Multiple Choice. Answer all 11 questions. 1 point each. Circle the best answer. Circle
only one answer for each question.
1. What was Karl Popper’s criticism of Sigmund Freud’s psychoanalytic theory?
(a) Freud abused cocaine, which is known to impair judgment
(b) Psychoanalytic patients were typically wealthy, which raised the specter of bias
(c) The Oedipus Complex is based in Greek Mythology, which is literature, not science
(d) Freud was trained as a medical doctor, not as a scientist
(e) The theory could be reconciled with any empirical findings whatsoever
D
2. Which of the following is not a law of probability?
(a) Law of Large Numbers
(b) Multiplication Law
(c) Independence
(d) Elegance
D
(e) None of the above
3. According the physicist Matthew Johnson (from the in-class video in Week 1) why is it incorrect to claim that the multiverse hypothesis is not scientific?
(a) Critics do not understand the mathematics sufficiently
(b) The laws of nature were different shortly after the Big Bang
(c) There may exist a universe in which the hypothesis is scientific
(d) At least some versions of the hypothesis make predictions
D
(e) Computer simulations show the hypothesis is true
4. We know that induction and probability are crucial to science. However, they are not without their problems. Which of the following is not a problem faced by induction or probability?
(a) We don’t know if Inference to the Best Explanation is more basic than regular induction
(b) Probability standards such as 0.01 and 0.05 are somewhat arbitrary
(c) Probability does not tell us what is important scientifically
(d) Probability cannot be quantified
D
(e) The Uniformity of Nature is an assumption that itself relies on induction
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5. What does Samir Okasha take to be the principal task of the philosophy of science?
(a) To provide teaching jobs for the luxuriously-mustached
(b) To demonstrate that only physics achieves certain truth
(c) To analyse the methods of enquiry used in the various sciences
D
(d) To provide a logical foundation for the axioms of mathematics
(e) To show the superiority of prescriptive approaches to defining science
6. Who figured out the axioms for the formal mathematical calculus of probability?
(a) Blaise Pascal
(b) Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz
(c) Gregory Chaitin
(d) Andrei Kolmogorov
D
(e) John Haigh
7. Which of the following did W. V. Quine and J. S. Ullian not consider a virtue of hypotheses?
(a) Modesty
(b) Conservatism
(c) Simplicity
(d) Specificity
D
(e) Refutability
8. Formal logic supports deductive inferences. Why might we think that probability will support scientific predictions?
(a) Because David Hume gave good reason to doubt the uniformity of nature
(b) Because Kurt Godel’s Incompleteness Theorem undermined modern logic
(c) Because predictions are made from a place of uncertainty and probability studies and formalizes u
D
(d) Because probability distributions can be represented as graphs
(e) Because, while statistics is a branch of mathematics, probability is a science
9. Physics research often has higher standards of evidence—uses p-values such as 0.000003
instead of 0.01—than does, for example, research on the causes of rare diseases in humans.
Which of the following is not a reason for this?
(a) Research on rare human diseases typically deals with smaller samples
(b) Physics is highly mathematical
D
(c) There are different stakes for getting the right answers in the two research areas
(d) Physics researchers can run their experiments (literally) millions of times
(e) Ethical considerations are more likely to constrain research on rare diseases than physics
experiments
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10. According to Samir Okasha, a plausible candidate for a distinguishing feature of science
is its methods. Which of the following does Okasha not list as a characteristic method of
science?
(a) Experiments
(b) Observations
(c) Theory construction
(d) Use of technology
D
(e) None of the above
11. According to Samir Okasha, the scientific revolution culminated in the work of Isaac Newton. Which of Newton’s accomplishments does Okasha highlight as particularly striking?
(a) That Newton overcame his provincial upbringing
(b) That he escaped persecution from religious authorities, unlike Galileo
(c) That Newton showed that the laws of Kepler and Galileo were logical consequences of his own
D
(d) That Newton’s obsession with the pseudo-science of alchemy did not infect his properly scientific physical theories
(e) That he was able to prove that pig milk is gamey, despite the fact that pigs typically
thwart milking attempts
PART II.
Short Answer (1-3 sentences). Answer 11 of 13 questions. 2 points each. Make your answers clear and specific. Please write the number of each question next to your answer
on the included sheets of paper.
1. Explain Karl Popper’s concept of falsifiability and how it is supposed the demarcate science
from non-science?
• ANSWER: A theory (or hypothesis) is falsifiable if it makes specific predictions that
can be tested. A theory or hypothesis is not scientific if it is not at least potentially
falsifiable because that would mean we could never know if it were true.
2. According to Samir Okasha, what is wrong with Karl Popper’s criticism of ad hoc explanations?
• ANSWER: This procedure is routinely used by respectable scientists and has led to
important discoveries.
3. What is deductive inference?
• ANSWER: A deductive inference has the following property: if the premises are
true, then the conclusion must be true too (Okasha, Chapter 2). It achieves certainty.
4. What is inductive inference?
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• ANSWER: “In inductive inference, or inductive reasoning, we move from premises
about obects we have examined to conclusions about objects we havent examined”
(Okasha, Chapter 2). It provides knowledge that is probable.
5. John Ziman claims that science is not distinguished from other intellectual disciplines by
its style, its types of argument, or its subject matter, but rather by the type of knowledge it
produces. According to Ziman, what is distinctive about scientific knowledge?
• ANSWER: Science is public knowledge. It must withstand scrutiny from other scientists. The goal is rational consensus.
6. List the birth and death dates for two of the following three people: Hendrik Lorentz, David
Hume, Isaac Newton.
• ANSWER: Hendrik Lorentz (1853-1928), David Hume (1711-1776), Isaac Newton (16431727)
7. If probability is supposed to provide a foundation for science and scientific reasoning, then
why does it matter whether probability is itself a part of science rather than a part of mathematics?
• ANSWER: If probability is a science, then the foundation of science is also science,
which is circular. If probability is a part of mathematics, then this problem does not
arise.
8. While the mathematics supporting probability theory is well established, the meaning of
probability is unsettled. Briefly describe the two main interpretations of probability theory.
• ANSWER: (1) “The subjective interpretation of probability implies that there are no
objective facts about probability, independently of what people believe” (Okasha, p.
34). (2) “The logical [i.e., objective] interpretation holds that probability statements
are objectively true or false, relative to a specified body of evidence” (Okasha, p. 35)
9. According to W. V. Quine and J. S. Ullian’s account of hypotheses, the virtue of generality
often conflicts with the virtue of modesty. Why might this be?
• ANSWER: Generality “makes a hypothesis interesting and important if true” and
it aims to cover as wide a range of phenomena as possible. Modesty aims to be
“humdrum,” which is very nearly the opposite of interesting and important.
10. When appraising scientific reasoning, why is it important to know whether scientists are
investigating deterministic phenomena rather than indeterministic phenomena?
• ANSWER: Because it lets us know how much slack we should cut science, i.e., our
knowledge of indeterministic phenomena is always probable, never certain, whereas
deterministic phenomena can yield certain knowledge.
11. What is the distinguishing characteristic of scientific laws? Another way to put this, what
must be true of any scientific law?
• ANSWER: Scientific laws have no exceptions.
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12. What is the null hypothesis?
• ANSWER: The null hypothesis is the opposite of the hypothesis being tested. Or,
the null hypothesis is the assumption that the hypothesis being tested isn’t true.
13. Why is it important for hypotheses, and scientific theories more generally, to make specific
predictions?
• ANSWER: Because then we know when a prediction is wrong, which falsifies the
hypothesis or theory.
PART III.
Extra Credit. 2 questions. 1 point each.
1. If the multiverse hypothesis is true—that is, if there are an infinite number of universes
where everything happens, and happens an infinite number of times—which of the following are you most likely to receive on tests similar to this one?
(a) A+/A/A(b) B+/B/B(c) C+/C/C(d) All of the above
D
2. Despite the claim of Mario Andrada, chief spokesperson for the 2016 Rio Summer Olympics
organizing committee, that “chemistry is not an exact science,” a specific chemical was ultimately said to be responsible for turning the water in the diving pools from blue to green.
What is the name of this chemical?1
Hydrogen peroxide
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The moral of the story is that the problem wasn’t that chemistry is indeterministic or mysterious but that the organizers weren’t paying close enough attention to what was getting added to the water, that is, weren’t keeping track of
the relevant causes.
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