Cascading uncertainty in climate change models and its implications
... more detailed regional climate models to project more local environmental variations. Down-scaling is a huge problem recognised in the modelling community (IPCC 2007b). This is because precipitation is spatially and temporally highly variable but essential to model if human impacts are to be predict ...
... more detailed regional climate models to project more local environmental variations. Down-scaling is a huge problem recognised in the modelling community (IPCC 2007b). This is because precipitation is spatially and temporally highly variable but essential to model if human impacts are to be predict ...
REPORT ON NEW ZEALAND`S VIEWS ON THE POSSIBLE
... humanitarian response, potentially with immigration elements such as resettlement/protection. It will also have an adverse impact on people already made homeless by conflict or other factors, and those protecting them (i.e. States and humanitarian agencies) ...
... humanitarian response, potentially with immigration elements such as resettlement/protection. It will also have an adverse impact on people already made homeless by conflict or other factors, and those protecting them (i.e. States and humanitarian agencies) ...
Chapter 3: The Global Warming Debate PDF
... February 1985 was the last time global surface temperatures fell below the 20th-century average for a given month, meaning that no one younger than 30 has ever lived through a below-average month. The last full year that was colder than the 20th-century average was 1976.212 The cause of such warming ...
... February 1985 was the last time global surface temperatures fell below the 20th-century average for a given month, meaning that no one younger than 30 has ever lived through a below-average month. The last full year that was colder than the 20th-century average was 1976.212 The cause of such warming ...
the wcrp cmip3 multimodel dataset
... observed provides a baseline for the degree of confidence we can place in the models and how they may simulate future changes. In this case, the overall agreement in the basic pattern of variability between the models and the observations builds confidence that sea ice variability in a future warmer ...
... observed provides a baseline for the degree of confidence we can place in the models and how they may simulate future changes. In this case, the overall agreement in the basic pattern of variability between the models and the observations builds confidence that sea ice variability in a future warmer ...
Working at community level and with national institutions
... • Lack of evidence about what are the most effective interventions to promote adaptive capacity – ACCRA is practical. • Growing consensus that joint work across different fields is required to respond to these challenges, not yet reflected in the policy, practice or research priorities of government ...
... • Lack of evidence about what are the most effective interventions to promote adaptive capacity – ACCRA is practical. • Growing consensus that joint work across different fields is required to respond to these challenges, not yet reflected in the policy, practice or research priorities of government ...
Reference Document - World Health Organization
... projected changes above the 1961-1990 period, smoothed with a 30-year Gaussian filter. The multimodel mean is the average across about 20 models (thick line). The figures also show each model individually as well as the 90% model range (shaded) as a measure of uncertainty and, where available, the a ...
... projected changes above the 1961-1990 period, smoothed with a 30-year Gaussian filter. The multimodel mean is the average across about 20 models (thick line). The figures also show each model individually as well as the 90% model range (shaded) as a measure of uncertainty and, where available, the a ...
AGENDA
... 9:30AM: Session 1 - Historical simulations and projections (session chair Gerald Meehl) 9:30AM – 10:30AM: Short presentations (each presenter gets 3 minutes and one powerpoint slide to present main conclusions) Warming holes: Can CMIP5 climate models represent the variability and sources of regional ...
... 9:30AM: Session 1 - Historical simulations and projections (session chair Gerald Meehl) 9:30AM – 10:30AM: Short presentations (each presenter gets 3 minutes and one powerpoint slide to present main conclusions) Warming holes: Can CMIP5 climate models represent the variability and sources of regional ...
Guidance on climate change for asset and
... quickly the impacts will arrive.” (Garnaut, 2008) While uncertainty is not an excuse for inaction, areas of uncertainty are common when making investment decisions. A decision to ‘do nothing’ may be the most appropriate course of action at a given time. 7 This may be related to a decision to collect ...
... quickly the impacts will arrive.” (Garnaut, 2008) While uncertainty is not an excuse for inaction, areas of uncertainty are common when making investment decisions. A decision to ‘do nothing’ may be the most appropriate course of action at a given time. 7 This may be related to a decision to collect ...
Climate Change Centre Austria
... rise within the two degrees Celsius margin for the period up to 2050. This assumption presupposes stronger climate policies than the ones currently in place. The analyses presented here only show that part of all potential impacts which has already been quantified and takes into consideration individ ...
... rise within the two degrees Celsius margin for the period up to 2050. This assumption presupposes stronger climate policies than the ones currently in place. The analyses presented here only show that part of all potential impacts which has already been quantified and takes into consideration individ ...
OSWER`s Climate Change Adaptation Plan December 4 - CLU-IN
... Current scientific monitoring and sampling protocols on sites may no longer be effective. Safety procedures on sites may not reflect likelihood or intensity of surrounding conditions. Availability of utilities and transportation infrastructure may be limited as a result of increased impacts to ...
... Current scientific monitoring and sampling protocols on sites may no longer be effective. Safety procedures on sites may not reflect likelihood or intensity of surrounding conditions. Availability of utilities and transportation infrastructure may be limited as a result of increased impacts to ...
from 1950 to 2006 - Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts
... Models predict winter and early spring will be wetter Models uncertain about amount of summer rainfall ...
... Models predict winter and early spring will be wetter Models uncertain about amount of summer rainfall ...
8. Climate Change - physicslocker.com
... Thames, regularly froze. Before the ‘Little Ice Age’, there was an unusually warm period known as the ‘Medieval Warm Period’, which lasted for about eight centuries. 5 of 48 ...
... Thames, regularly froze. Before the ‘Little Ice Age’, there was an unusually warm period known as the ‘Medieval Warm Period’, which lasted for about eight centuries. 5 of 48 ...
Draft Cochabamba Synthesis 9.29.10
... World Conference on Climate Change and Mother Earth Rights. He was at a meeting in December 2009 in Copenhagen (COP-15) ii with world leaders who were supposed to democratically come up with an agreement to set binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions. Instead of doing this, a small group of count ...
... World Conference on Climate Change and Mother Earth Rights. He was at a meeting in December 2009 in Copenhagen (COP-15) ii with world leaders who were supposed to democratically come up with an agreement to set binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions. Instead of doing this, a small group of count ...
MAV submission to Climate Change Adaptation Plan Directions Paper
... this regard articulated within the plan. The first part of this goal aligns very closely with the IRC’s recommended objective b). We support the first part of the goal. We question the second part of the goal in relation to ensuring integration of climate change risks, impacts and projections into a ...
... this regard articulated within the plan. The first part of this goal aligns very closely with the IRC’s recommended objective b). We support the first part of the goal. We question the second part of the goal in relation to ensuring integration of climate change risks, impacts and projections into a ...
Rahmstorf2012-ComparingClimateProjections-to-Obse+
... contributions of all three factors to global temperature were estimated by linear correlation with the multivariate El Niño index for ENSO, aerosol optical thickness data for volcanic activity and total solar irradiance data for solar variability (optical thickness data for the year 2011 were not y ...
... contributions of all three factors to global temperature were estimated by linear correlation with the multivariate El Niño index for ENSO, aerosol optical thickness data for volcanic activity and total solar irradiance data for solar variability (optical thickness data for the year 2011 were not y ...
Sharing the Planet
... Collect, select, and discus the pictures about human action can produce much CO2 and CH4 and increase the temperature in the earth. Students do peer share and create ten most important facts about climate change from the video. PPT global warming, watching animation, or movie about global warmin ...
... Collect, select, and discus the pictures about human action can produce much CO2 and CH4 and increase the temperature in the earth. Students do peer share and create ten most important facts about climate change from the video. PPT global warming, watching animation, or movie about global warmin ...
Climate Change Policy Summary
... FLNRO Climate Change Steering Committee formed July 2013 (excecutive level) to focus on implementing the FLNR Climate Change Strategy (2013-2018) All FLNRO regions and branches, including BCTS, will develop climate action plans to address these goals and objectives by March 31, 2015. To provide the ...
... FLNRO Climate Change Steering Committee formed July 2013 (excecutive level) to focus on implementing the FLNR Climate Change Strategy (2013-2018) All FLNRO regions and branches, including BCTS, will develop climate action plans to address these goals and objectives by March 31, 2015. To provide the ...
Climate Change Detection: The Importance of Homogenized Time
... Outline – Part I • Short introduction to homogenization • The integrated homogenization model used in the IMS • Results – Case study for Negba minimum temperature 1950-2012 – Quick over view on five adjusted series 1950-2012 ...
... Outline – Part I • Short introduction to homogenization • The integrated homogenization model used in the IMS • Results – Case study for Negba minimum temperature 1950-2012 – Quick over view on five adjusted series 1950-2012 ...
Support for climate policy and societal action are linked to
... certain that it is real and human caused, they recognize that it poses a serious threat to humans and that human action can reduce the threat, and they correctly understand that there is widespread agreement about climate change among scientists. Misunderstanding the widespread scientific agreement ...
... certain that it is real and human caused, they recognize that it poses a serious threat to humans and that human action can reduce the threat, and they correctly understand that there is widespread agreement about climate change among scientists. Misunderstanding the widespread scientific agreement ...
Understanding and Applying the Science
... • From new estimates of the combined anthropogenic forcing due to greenhouse gases, aerosols and land surface changes, it is extremely likely (> 95% probability) that human activities have exerted a substantial net warming influence on climate since 1750. ...
... • From new estimates of the combined anthropogenic forcing due to greenhouse gases, aerosols and land surface changes, it is extremely likely (> 95% probability) that human activities have exerted a substantial net warming influence on climate since 1750. ...
- Clean Energy Business Council
... Development Goals (SDGs) highlight that for development to be sustainable it must be resilient to risks, including those from climate change. SDG 13 on Climate Change is a critical agenda in this regard. The nexus of climate change to poverty reduction and other development goals under the SDGs is ...
... Development Goals (SDGs) highlight that for development to be sustainable it must be resilient to risks, including those from climate change. SDG 13 on Climate Change is a critical agenda in this regard. The nexus of climate change to poverty reduction and other development goals under the SDGs is ...
Roger Jones - Climate sensitivity, coping ranges and risk
... An event likely to occur once only. Probability refers to the chance of an event occurring, or to a particular state of that event when it occurs. Eg. Climate change, collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, hell freezing over ...
... An event likely to occur once only. Probability refers to the chance of an event occurring, or to a particular state of that event when it occurs. Eg. Climate change, collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, hell freezing over ...
The “Turmoil” on “Climate Change”
... The world is not going to be a Sahara desert as envisaged by the global warming alarmists whose main focus was the future. On the contrary the supporters of the cooling theory studied the history of global warming and interpreted the future in terms of the past and concluded as natural cycles. At th ...
... The world is not going to be a Sahara desert as envisaged by the global warming alarmists whose main focus was the future. On the contrary the supporters of the cooling theory studied the history of global warming and interpreted the future in terms of the past and concluded as natural cycles. At th ...
Michael E. Mann
Michael E. Mann (born 1965) is an American climatologist and geophysicist, currently director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University, who has contributed to the scientific understanding of historic climate change based on the temperature record of the past thousand years. He has pioneered techniques to find patterns in past climate change, and to isolate climate signals from ""noisy data"".As lead author of a paper produced in 1998 with co-authors Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes, Mann introduced innovative statistical techniques to find regional variations in a hemispherical climate reconstruction covering the past 600 years. In 1999 the same team used these techniques to produce a reconstruction over the past 1,000 years (MBH99) which was dubbed the ""hockey stick graph"" because of its shape. He was one of 8 lead authors of the ""Observed Climate Variability and Change"" chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Scientific Assessment Report published in 2001. A graph based on the MBH99 paper was highlighted in several parts of the report, and was given wide publicity. The IPCC acknowledged that his work, along with that of the many other lead authors and review editors, contributed to the award of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, which was won jointly by the IPCC and Al Gore.He was organizing committee chair for the National Academy of Sciences Frontiers of Science in 2003 and has received a number of honors and awards including selection by Scientific American as one of the fifty leading visionaries in science and technology in 2002. In 2012 he was inducted as a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union and was awarded the Hans Oeschger Medal of the European Geosciences Union. In 2013 he was elected a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society, and awarded the status of distinguished professor in Penn State's College of Earth and Mineral Sciences.Mann is author of more than 160 peer-reviewed and edited publications, and has published two books: Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming in 2008 and The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines, published in early 2012. In 2013 the European Geosciences Union described his publication record as ""outstanding for a scientist of his relatively young age"". He is also a co-founder and contributor to the climatology blog RealClimate.