Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from
... since contribution from the ice sheets is clearly relevant on longer timescales (Levermann et al., 2013). While the part of the ice sheet directly susceptible to warming ocean waters on Greenland is limited, marine ice sheets in West Antarctica alone have the potential to elevate sea level globally ...
... since contribution from the ice sheets is clearly relevant on longer timescales (Levermann et al., 2013). While the part of the ice sheet directly susceptible to warming ocean waters on Greenland is limited, marine ice sheets in West Antarctica alone have the potential to elevate sea level globally ...
Simple indices of global climate variability and change: Part I
... variability and correlation structure of these indices on interannual and decadal time scales. The indices are used to evaluate the performance of control climate model simulations of internal climate variability. As the indices are expected to contain independent information for internal climate va ...
... variability and correlation structure of these indices on interannual and decadal time scales. The indices are used to evaluate the performance of control climate model simulations of internal climate variability. As the indices are expected to contain independent information for internal climate va ...
decision analysis
... mathematical model for deciding the starting bid he will require when auctioning a used automobile. Essentially, he sets the starting bid at seventy percent of what he predicts the final winning bid will (or should) be. He predicts the winning bid by starting with the car's original selling price an ...
... mathematical model for deciding the starting bid he will require when auctioning a used automobile. Essentially, he sets the starting bid at seventy percent of what he predicts the final winning bid will (or should) be. He predicts the winning bid by starting with the car's original selling price an ...
Curriculum Vitae - of Kesten C Green
... Rule guidelines reduces forecast errors by nearly a third, on average, compared to common practice. Superiority of simple forecasting methods: Sophisticatedly simple forecasting methods, which can be understood by decision makers, reduce forecast errors by nearly a quarter, on average, compared to f ...
... Rule guidelines reduces forecast errors by nearly a third, on average, compared to common practice. Superiority of simple forecasting methods: Sophisticatedly simple forecasting methods, which can be understood by decision makers, reduce forecast errors by nearly a quarter, on average, compared to f ...
The sensitivity of mountain snowpack accumulation to climate warming
... estimate the elevation of the rain–snow boundary, called the melting level (ML). The second ‘‘ML model’’ uses only the ML from the sounding and assumptions of uniform and constant precipitation. Both models simulate increases in precipitation intensity and elevated storm MLs under climate warming. T ...
... estimate the elevation of the rain–snow boundary, called the melting level (ML). The second ‘‘ML model’’ uses only the ML from the sounding and assumptions of uniform and constant precipitation. Both models simulate increases in precipitation intensity and elevated storm MLs under climate warming. T ...
Winners and losers: Ecological and biogeochemical changes in a
... 8.5 (RCP8.5) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). [12] In the spin-up, historical, and future simulation phases, the three-dimensional ocean is forced with prescribed wind fields. These fields have variability as provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NC ...
... 8.5 (RCP8.5) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). [12] In the spin-up, historical, and future simulation phases, the three-dimensional ocean is forced with prescribed wind fields. These fields have variability as provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NC ...
Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5
... Assessment Report (AR4, Solomon et al. 2007) that climate change has begun to affect the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events such as extreme temperatures, extreme precipitation, droughts, etc. Some of the changes in weather and climate extremes observed in the late 20th century are ...
... Assessment Report (AR4, Solomon et al. 2007) that climate change has begun to affect the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events such as extreme temperatures, extreme precipitation, droughts, etc. Some of the changes in weather and climate extremes observed in the late 20th century are ...
Comparing impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large
... results to the available literature sources on future projections of streamflow in Africa, namely De Wit and Stankiewicz (2006) and Strzepek and McCluskey (2007), and several projections for smaller regions. They generally found similar trends in the studies, with decreases in the Sahel region and s ...
... results to the available literature sources on future projections of streamflow in Africa, namely De Wit and Stankiewicz (2006) and Strzepek and McCluskey (2007), and several projections for smaller regions. They generally found similar trends in the studies, with decreases in the Sahel region and s ...
changes in high flows in Sweden in the past and the future (1911
... Abstract. There is an ongoing discussion whether floods occur more frequently today than in the past, and whether they will increase in number and magnitude in the future. To explore this issue in Sweden, we merged observed time series for the past century from 69 gauging sites throughout the countr ...
... Abstract. There is an ongoing discussion whether floods occur more frequently today than in the past, and whether they will increase in number and magnitude in the future. To explore this issue in Sweden, we merged observed time series for the past century from 69 gauging sites throughout the countr ...
Chapter 4 Climate change and its implications for catastrophe
... planned for, but there may be surprises. For example, 2004 saw record breaking numbers of tropical storms in both the Atlantic basin and Japan. Whilst this cannot be attributed to climate change, it demonstrates the possibility of multiple catastrophic events in different countries within a relative ...
... planned for, but there may be surprises. For example, 2004 saw record breaking numbers of tropical storms in both the Atlantic basin and Japan. Whilst this cannot be attributed to climate change, it demonstrates the possibility of multiple catastrophic events in different countries within a relative ...
Expect Above Average Temperatures: Identifying the Economic
... climate change. Yet we know remarkably little about these costs, leading some economists to question the value of conventional modeling (e.g., Ackerman et al., 2009; Pindyck, 2013). The costs of climate change are hard to pin down before having lived through the climate change experiment. However, w ...
... climate change. Yet we know remarkably little about these costs, leading some economists to question the value of conventional modeling (e.g., Ackerman et al., 2009; Pindyck, 2013). The costs of climate change are hard to pin down before having lived through the climate change experiment. However, w ...
Format PDF press here
... dense deep Mediterranean waters through air–sea coupling (see Chapters 4 and 5 for more descriptions). This water transformation process generates thermohaline forcing which drives, in a large proportion, the Mediterranean marine general circulation. Convection can thus be observed in several places ...
... dense deep Mediterranean waters through air–sea coupling (see Chapters 4 and 5 for more descriptions). This water transformation process generates thermohaline forcing which drives, in a large proportion, the Mediterranean marine general circulation. Convection can thus be observed in several places ...
Numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with perfectly accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.